OECD Development Centre Working Papers

The OECD Development Centre links OECD members with developing and emerging economies and fosters debate and discussion to seek creative policy solutions to emerging global issues and development challenges. This series of working papers is intended to disseminate the OECD Development Centre’s research findings rapidly among specialists in the field concerned. These papers are generally available in the original English or French, with a summary in the other language.

English, French

Economic Policy Reform and Growth Prospects in Emerging African Economies

We assess the prospects for growth of African economies up to the year 2010 by modelling structural and policy determinants of growth, under different scenarios for changes in the exogenous factors and economic policies which shape the projections. To this end we estimate a growth model for 39 African economies, during seven five-year periods from 1960 through 1995. The model emphasises two engines of growth: i) investment and ii) growth of exports. Using a composite indicator of “emerging economies” iiset up on the basis of the economic performance, quality of policies and political stability of African countries ppwe identify 14 African economies that stand better chances to achieve a lasting improvement in their policies and growth performance in the years ahead. These “emerging economies” can be mostly found in the Southern-Eastern and the Western parts of Africa. Our growth simulations involve two policy scenarios: a baseline scenario which extends policy trends observed ...


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