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Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2017

Addressing Energy Challenges

image of Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2017

The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a bi-annual publication on regional economic growth, development and regional integration in Emerging Asia. It focuses on the economic conditions of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. It also addresses relevant economic issues in China and India to fully reflect economic developments in the region. The 2017 edition of the Outlook comprises four main parts, each highlighting a particular dimension of recent economic developments in the region. The first part presents the regional economic monitor, depicting the near-term and medium-term economic outlooks, as well as macroeconomic and regional integration challenges in the region. The second part discusses the recent progress made in key aspects of regional integration. The third part presents this edition's special focus: addressing energy challenges and renewable energy development in particular. The fourth part includes structural policy country notes offering specific recommendations.

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Overview

OECD Development Centre

Overall, the growth prospects of the Emerging Asian economies (Southeast Asia, China and India) are expected to remain robust over the medium term amid global economic uncertainty. Emerging Asian countries will see real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.5% in 2016, 6.4% in 2017 and 6.2% per year over 2017-21, below the rates seen in the recent past (Table 1). Growth rates and trends will vary across the region, however. While China’s gradual slowing will continue, growth will remain strong in India – exceeding 7% per year. Amongst the ASEAN-5, the Philippines and Viet Nam are expected to remain in the lead. Growth should see improvement in Indonesia and Thailand, but decline in Malaysia, particularly, in the near term. The CLM (Cambodia, Lao PDR and Myanmar) can expect continued high rates of growth, with more than 8% growth in Myanmar. Private consumption will continue to be an important factor of growth in most countries, particularly as exports grow slowly. Infrastructure also contributed to growth in many countries in the region. Overall, fiscal balances will worsen slightly in the medium term.

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