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Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2014

Beyond the Middle-Income Trap

image of Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2014

The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2014: Beyond the Middle-Income Trap presents a medium-term (five year) economic outlook for Emerging Asia, a specific focus on the middle-income trap and an assessment of national structural policy reforms and medium-term development plans. The report highlights the fact that economies in the region will remain resilient in the next five years, supported by the growing strength of domestic demand. It also calls for greater efforts in the push for further economic integration in ASEAN, in particular in the areas of human capital development and poverty.

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Medium-term economic outlook for Emerging Asia: Prospects and assessments

OECD Development Centre

The economic outlook in Emerging Asia (Southeast Asia, China and India) remains robust over the medium term, anchored by the steady rise in domestic demand. In particular, real GDP growth in the Southeast Asian region will remain robust in the medium term, growing at a pace which is comparable to the pre-global financial crisis period. Growth in domestic demand, particularly private consumption and investment, will be the main driver of growth in most countries. Current account surpluses will remain relatively stable as shares of GDP in the region. Growth will be less reliant on net exports than in the past. In the near term, while downside risks to growth remain, particularly from financial volatility and capital flows, Emerging Asian economies will weather this as underlying fundamentals are resilient.

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