West African Papers

The West African Papers series explores African socio-economic, political and security dynamics from a regional and multidisciplinary perspective. It seeks to stimulate discussion and gather information to better anticipate the changes that will shape future policies. The series is designed for a wide audience of specialists, development practitioners, decision makers and the informed public. Papers are available in English and/or French, and summaries are available in both languages. Initiated by the Sahel and West Africa Club (SWAC) to highlight and promote West African issues, the work presented is prepared by its Secretariat, Members and partners, other OECD departments, related international organisations, associated experts and researchers.

English Also available in: French

Agricultural market activity and Boko Haram attacks in northeastern Nigeria

This paper examines the linkages between Boko Haram activities in northeastern Nigeria and declined activities in regional agricultural markets. Building on data from both the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), the paper first considers the geographic distribution of Boko Haram events with respect to market towns and discusses whether there is evidence of Boko Haram activities near markets having influence on declined market operations. Next, it examines the temporal character of market operations and the timing of their changes in their operational status, including market closures, with respect to the seasonality of agricultural production and land use in northeastern Nigeria. The paper measures the frequency of changes in regional market activities and considers spatial relationships and temporal correlations with Boko Haram activities in the region over twelve periods from late 2014 through the end of 2016. Finally, the paper formulates policy recommendations for assessing and mitigating coupled challenges of human and environmental security.


Keywords: Boko Haram, northeastern Nigeria, political violence, markets, Lake Chad
JEL: D74: Microeconomics / Analysis of Collective Decision-Making / Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions; R11: Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics / General Regional Economics / Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes; H56: Public Economics / National Government Expenditures and Related Policies / National Security and War; N47: Economic History / Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation / Economic History: Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation: Africa; Oceania; N57: Economic History / Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment, and Extractive Industries / Economic History: Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment, and Extractive Industries: Africa; Oceania
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