The chapter examines the recent macroeconomic developments in Africa and provides a forecast for 2013 and 2014. This is based on detailed country analysis and projections as described in Part Three of this report. The chapter looks at the demand and supply conditions which are affecting Africa’s growth. It also describes the development of commodity prices and inflationary pressures in African countries and discusses how monetary and fiscal policies have responded to the various challenges.

The economic outlook for Africa remains favourable despite headwinds from the global economy. Growth has remained relatively broad-based, with oil production, mining, agriculture, services and domestic demand as the main drivers, mitigating the adverse effects from global turbulences. But growth has remained subdued in several countries due to poor export performances and political and social tensions. On average, and excluding the distortions by volatile gross domestic product (GDP) developments in Libya, Africa’s economic growth was 4.2% in 2012 and is projected to accelerate to 4.5% in 2013 and further to 5.2% in 2014. This forecast assumes a gradual improvement of global economic conditions.