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African Economic Outlook 2010

image of African Economic Outlook 2010

Since 2002, the annual African Economic Outlook has been charting the progress of the continent’s economies. Africa was propelled by seven years of strong growth from 2002 to 2008, only to be stopped in its tracks by the world’s deepest and most widespread recession in half a century. This edition finds the continent struggling to get back on its feet and identify new, more crisis-resilient practices for moving forward. In this context, decision makers in African and OECD countries, both in the public and private sectors, will find this year's analysis of particular interest for their activities.

Jointly published by the African Development Bank (AfDB), the OECD Development Centre and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), the African Economic Outlook project is generously supported by the European Development Fund. It combines the expertise accumulated by the OECD – which produces the OECD Economic Outlook twice yearly – with the knowledge of the AfDB, UNECA and a network of African research institutions on African economies.

This year’s Outlook reviews recent economic, social and political developments and the short-term likely evolution of 50 African countries. The African Economic Outlook is drawn from a country-by-country analysis based on a unique common framework. This includes a forecasting exercise for 2010 to 2012 using a simple macroeconomic model, together with an analysis of the social and political context. Its overview chapter provides a comparative synthesis of African country prospects which places the evolution of African economies in the world economic context. A statistical appendix completes the volume.  

African Economic Outlook 2010 focuses on public resource mobilisation and aid in Africa, presenting a comprehensive review of best practices in tax administration, policies and multilateral agreements, including recommendations for meeting future challenges. The role that aid should play to help African countries mobilise their public resources to meet their development goals is also discussed. The original dataset that resulted from the 50-country analysis will be made available for free on www.africaneconomicoutlook.org.

English Portuguese, French

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Nigeria

OECD Development Centre

Nigeria, the eighth largest oil exporter in the world and Africa’s second largest economy, continued to be buffered by the global recession in 2009. Reforms initiated earlier in the decade have strengthened the country’s capacity to manage the crisis and avert the boom-bust pattern characteristic of past oil cycles. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth fell to 3% in 2009, compared with 6% in 2008. It is projected to rise to 4.4% in 2010 and 5.5% in 2011, driven by a recovery in oil prices. Oil accounts for about 80% of fiscal revenues and 95% of exports. Oil revenues fell by 7.8 percentage points of GDP in 2009, moving the fiscal accounts from a surplus of 3.8% of GDP in 2008 to a deficit of 5.2% in 2009. A planned sovereign bond issue of 500 million US dollars (USD) (0.5% of GDP) has been shelved because of adverse market conditions. The external debt at the end of 2009 is estimated at only 2.2% of GDP. This suggests that debt sustainability is not likely to pose a major problem in the coming years. The current account surplus declined to 11% of GDP in 2009, compared to 21% in 2008.

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