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African Economic Outlook 2009

image of African Economic Outlook 2009

The international financial crisis increases the relevance of this annual publication jointly published by the African Development Bank, the OECD Development Centre and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA). Decision makers in African and OECD countries, such as aid agencies, investors, NGOs and government officials of aid-recipient countries, will all find the analysis critical to their activities.

The African Economic Outlook 2009 reviews the recent economic situation and predicts the short-term evolution of 47 African countries which account for 99% of the continent's economic output and 97% of its population. The Outlook is drawn from a country-by-country analysis based on a unique analytical design. This common framework includes a forecasting exercise for the current and the two following years, using a simple macroeconomic model, together with an analysis of the social and political context. It also contains a comparative synthesis of African country prospects, placing the evolution of African economies in the world economic context.

The 2009 edition focuses on innovation and information and communication technologies (ICT) in Africa, presenting a comprehensive review of their proliferation and use on the African continent. A statistical appendix completes the volume.

The AEO project is generously supported by the European Commission and combines the knowledge of the African Development Bank and the UNECA on African economies with the expertise accumulated by the OECD, which produces the OECD Economic Outlook twice yearly.

This publication provides dynamic links (StatLinks) for graphs and tables. These StatLinks direct the user to a web page where the corresponding data are available in Excel® format.

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Uganda

OECD Development Centre

THE UGANDAN ECONOMY GREW AN IMPRESSIVE 7 per cent in 2008 despite the turmoil in the world economy and regional instability. Growth has been led by the service and industrial sectors, while agriculture has stagnated. Numerous challenges include post-election violence in Kenya at the beginning of 2008, which disrupted the crucial trade link with Mombasa port, the depletion of fish stocks in Lake Victoria, soaring oil prices in the first half of the year and most recently the worsening global slump. The global downturn threatens the Ugandan financial system, dampens demand for exports and reduces remittances from abroad. As a consequence of these shocks, growth is expected to slow to 5.6 per cent in 2009 before recovering to 6.1 per cent in 2010. High fuel and food prices pushed inflation up to an estimated 12 per cent in 2008. The government is pressing ahead with a fiveyear National Development Plan (NDP) focusing on infrastructure and agricultural development in a bid to increase exports and remove constraints to further growth. Uganda continues to be a leader in social progress in Africa with poverty reduction and improvements in health and education but much remains to be done.

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