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African Economic Outlook 2003

image of African Economic Outlook 2003

The African Economic Outlook is a joint project between the African Development Bank and the OECD Development Centre.  The project, initially funded by the EU, combines the expertise accumulated by the OECD and the knowledge of the African Development Bank on African economies. The objective is to review annually the recent economic situation and the short-term likely evolutions of selected African countries.  The Outlook is drawn from a country-by-country analysis based on a unique analytical design.  This common framework includes a forecasting exercise for the current and the following year using a simple macroeconomic model, together with an analysis of the social and political context.  It also contains a comparative synthesis of African country prospects.  A statistical appendix completes the volume.  Decision-makers and economists in African and OECD countries, both in the public and private sectors, aid agencies and investors will all find this volume of significant interest.

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Senegal

OECD Development Centre

Senegal has displayed great economic vigour since the 1994 devaluation, with annual GDP growth of more than 5 per cent. Amid this sustained growth, 2000-2002 was a transition period, when a peaceful transfer of political power boosted confidence in the future even though the changeover has made economic decision-makers cautious and delayed programmes in some sectors. The country is also having trouble completing structural reforms that are part of its programme with the IMF, such as privatising the electricity company (Sénélec) and the groundnut marketing body (Sonacos). These two firms have accumulated large deficits that the government had to make up for in 2001, badly skewing the budget. So relations with the Bretton Woods institutions are a little tense, while at home the government is coming to the end of its honeymoon that followed the political changeover. But a good economic performance in 2002 saw GDP grow by an estimated 4.8 per cent. 2003 may be a difficult year, especially as the 2002/03 harvest is not very promising, and GDP growth could fall to 4.1 per cent. However, the country could benefit from investment and trade redirected from Côte d’Ivoire because of the fighting there…

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