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African Economic Outlook 2003

image of African Economic Outlook 2003

The African Economic Outlook is a joint project between the African Development Bank and the OECD Development Centre.  The project, initially funded by the EU, combines the expertise accumulated by the OECD and the knowledge of the African Development Bank on African economies. The objective is to review annually the recent economic situation and the short-term likely evolutions of selected African countries.  The Outlook is drawn from a country-by-country analysis based on a unique analytical design.  This common framework includes a forecasting exercise for the current and the following year using a simple macroeconomic model, together with an analysis of the social and political context.  It also contains a comparative synthesis of African country prospects.  A statistical appendix completes the volume.  Decision-makers and economists in African and OECD countries, both in the public and private sectors, aid agencies and investors will all find this volume of significant interest.

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Nigeria

OECD Development Centre

Nigeria’s economic performance remains mixed. The economy maintained a moderate rate of growth of real GDP, which reached 3.9 per cent in 2001, from the yearly average of 3.3 per cent since 1995. The outlook on growth remains mixed. Real GDP is estimated to decline by about 1.3 per cent in 2002, following which the economy is projected to resume positive growth at 3.1 per cent in 2003. The growth performance in 2001 was achieved in an atmosphere of weakening economic fundamentals: inflationary pressures were exacerbated, interest rates rose and the foreign exchange rate of the naira depreciated sharply. The government’s fiscal position deteriorated sharply in 2001 as expenditure increases were met with reduced revenues. The government’s effort to reduce expenditure is made difficult by Nigeria’s fiscal federalism. In spite of increased expenditures the key social services that bear directly on poverty alleviation have not seen significant improvement. Nigeria’s public finances are expected to improve with an estimated contraction in the overall balance in 2002 with further improvement in 2003…

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