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African Economic Outlook 2003

image of African Economic Outlook 2003

The African Economic Outlook is a joint project between the African Development Bank and the OECD Development Centre.  The project, initially funded by the EU, combines the expertise accumulated by the OECD and the knowledge of the African Development Bank on African economies. The objective is to review annually the recent economic situation and the short-term likely evolutions of selected African countries.  The Outlook is drawn from a country-by-country analysis based on a unique analytical design.  This common framework includes a forecasting exercise for the current and the following year using a simple macroeconomic model, together with an analysis of the social and political context.  It also contains a comparative synthesis of African country prospects.  A statistical appendix completes the volume.  Decision-makers and economists in African and OECD countries, both in the public and private sectors, aid agencies and investors will all find this volume of significant interest.

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Ethiopia

OECD Development Centre

Ethiopia is making steady progress in economic growth. In 2000/01, real GDP growth reached 7.9 per cent, from a yearly average of 4.8 per cent since 1994/95. Notwithstanding the growth upsurge, per capita income in Ethiopia has continued to decline since 1997/98. The growth performance is expected to moderate with an estimated growth rate of GDP of 5 per cent in 2001/02, which will rise to 6 per cent in 2002/03. In effect, Ethiopia’s declining per capita income is expected to continue in the short term. In line with its Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) commitments, the government has put poverty reduction at the centre of its medium-term growth strategy. Ethiopia’s economic management is improving, underlined by fiscal and monetary prudence. The government’s recent fiscal performance is marked by success in orientating spending from defence to poverty-targeted outlays. However, weak expenditure management is hampering progress towards fiscal stability. Further increases in government expenditure are expected to outweigh revenue gains leading to continuing deterioration in the budget position in the short term...

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