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African Economic Outlook 2003

image of African Economic Outlook 2003

The African Economic Outlook is a joint project between the African Development Bank and the OECD Development Centre.  The project, initially funded by the EU, combines the expertise accumulated by the OECD and the knowledge of the African Development Bank on African economies. The objective is to review annually the recent economic situation and the short-term likely evolutions of selected African countries.  The Outlook is drawn from a country-by-country analysis based on a unique analytical design.  This common framework includes a forecasting exercise for the current and the following year using a simple macroeconomic model, together with an analysis of the social and political context.  It also contains a comparative synthesis of African country prospects.  A statistical appendix completes the volume.  Decision-makers and economists in African and OECD countries, both in the public and private sectors, aid agencies and investors will all find this volume of significant interest.

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Egypt

OECD Development Centre

The Egyptian economy had a very difficult year in 2001/02 with external problems that affected the entire economy being exacerbated by the 11 September attacks. The drop in revenues from tourism, oil and the Suez Canal, as well as the world economic slowdown and the region’s security problems, reduced growth to 2.3 per cent, where it is expected to remain in 2002/03. After this difficult year, some indicators seem to be improving but the budget deficit is still large and may damage the macroeconomic stability Egypt has achieved in recent years. However, the sharp devaluation of the Egyptian pound should revive exports, though the resulting imported inflation will push up domestic prices. Structural transformation, primarily through privatisation and financial reform, is progressing slowly but it should boost growth in the long run. The food-processing and petrochemical sectors especially stand to benefit from reform and both have strong prospects.

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