Key policy insights

The current expansion is now one of the longest on record and amongst the strongest recoveries in the OECD. Only the expansions during the 1960s and 1990s are of comparable length since records began in 1854. The expansion has been job rich and has helped bring people back into the labour market, but the rate of output growth has been modest (Figure 1). While well-being has benefited from job growth, the legacy of the great recession and past structural shocks - such as globalisation and automation - remains painfully visible across the country, notably in the industrial heartland. Joblessness, non-participation and poverty are concentrated in distressed cities, notwithstanding robust job growth in coastal areas and well-connected metropolitan areas (Weingarden, 2017[1] Austin, Glaeser and Summers, 2018[2]). This has been exacerbated by fewer opportunities to thrive irrespective of one’s origin, which is central to the American social model. The dislocation of opportunities is also associated with the opioid epidemic, which tends to be most pronounced in areas suffering from employment loss. In addition, not all families have enjoyed the benefits of economic growth and workers are worried about the impact of automation on their lives (Smith and Anderson, 2017[3]).