Assessment and recommendations

Seven years after the financial crisis, the United States is making a comeback. The US economic recovery, while modest by historical standards, has been one of the strongest in the OECD, thanks to robust monetary policy support and an early fiscal expansion. Many private-sector jobs have been created, pushing unemployment down to its pre-crisis level, thereby providing consumers with higher income and improving their confidence. Further economic growth at a pace near 2% a year is likely in the short term, while a new recession is a low-probability prospect in the current environment. But a number of long-term challenges remain unresolved. In particular, the slowdown of productivity growth already apparent since the mid-2000s has continued in recent years. Faster productivity growth – supported by well-designed investments in innovation, infrastructure, skills and inclusiveness – would help to address future challenges such as rising income inequality, population ageing and fiscal sustainability.