Economic outlook and assessments on macroeconomic and structural reforms in Emerging Asia

Growth in Emerging Asia will remain fairly robust, but look set to moderate somewhat in the medium term. Slowing or stable growth is forecast for most of the ASEAN-5 countries, though Thailand is expected to recover from recent sluggish growth and decline. Growth will also recover in Brunei Darussalam but will slow slightly in Singapore. The CLM countries will continue to be among the fastest-growing in the region. China’s growth is expected to continue to slow as India’s economy continues its strong performance. Consumption will become more important to growth in much of Emerging Asia, leading to narrower current account surpluses in China and the ASEAN-5. Fiscal balances will remain mostly stable. External and domestic risks are still facing the region and could negatively affect future growth. China’s slowdown, US monetary policy normalisation and slow productivity growth are particularly important challenges. Addressing these issues and continuing to deepen regional integration will be critical in ensuring continued growth.