Scenar 2020-II: Decomposition analysis to understand policy impacts on agricultural primary production and related processing sectors

This analysis, using a suite of models and statistical methods, decomposes the individual effects of various policy components on the outcome of three policy scenarios developed as part of the Scenar 2020-II study: a reference scenario, a conservative scenario, and a liberalisation scenario. A brief description of the economic modelling framework, policy representation and scenarios is presented, followed by an analysis of the impact of border measures, of the blending requirements of the EU Renewable Energy Directive, and of Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 payments of the Common Agricultural Policy on agri-food trade, agri-food production and land use. The decomposition analysis helps to identify the elements that drive the effects of policy reform.