Estonia is highly integrated into the global trade system: it exports approximately 80% of GDP and around half of domestic employment is sustained by foreign demand. Given that international trade and foreign direct investment are considered as major channels of technology diffusion and productivity growth, this bodes well for reviving income convergence. To capitalize on the country’s high trade intensity, policymakers need to remove remaining trade barriers and improve policies fostering knowledge diffusion as well as talent retention and attraction. At the same time, to ensure that benefits of more trade are shared across the population, the social safety net should be bolstered, and participation in upskilling programmes and their labour-market relevance increased.

Since the crisis, Estonia has experienced one of the most pronounced declines in the ratio of non-residential investment to GDP in the OECD. In addition, investment in intangible capital has remained well below OECD standards, partly explaining the low innovative capacities of typical Estonian firms. Uncertainty created by regional geopolitical tensions has played a role but poor investment performance stems from domestic factors too, such as a normalisation after the boom years, the lack of adequate skills and insufficient incentives for risk-taking. Improving lifelong learning and maintaining skilled mothers in employment can contribute to reducing shortages in skills needed by investors. Restructuring of insolvent firms should be eased to increase credit recovery and redirect capital to the most productive ones. Developing alternatives to bank funding can support investment in small and innovative firms. While there is room to improve the quality of infrastructure further, selection and prioritisation of projects should improve. Incentives for green investment, in particular to reduce pollution emitted by the oil shale industry and to achieve energy efficiency gains, could be strengthened.