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The recent recession has slowed migration, especially that driven by labour demand. Yet, migration did not come to a halt – in part because family and humanitarian movements are less sensitive to changes in labour market conditions, but also because of structural needs and demographic trends. Concealed behind a slack labour market, the ageing of the population is starting to reduce the working-age population in many countries.
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Permanent-type legal immigration of foreign nationals (about 4.4 million) fell 6% in 2008, the first decline after 5 years of averaging 11% growth. However, this decline was mostly due to decreases in just a few countries, and also reflected the particularly high flows in 2007. Nonetheless, the decline in flows continued in 2009, with migration declining in most OECD countries as a result of the economic crisis.
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The financial crisis, which started at the end of 2007, rapidly led to a major recession and has resulted in severe labour market slack. Starting from a 28-year low of 5.8% in late 2007, the OECD unemployment rate rose to 8.8% in the fourth quarter of 2009, resulting in an 18 million increase in the number of persons unemployed (OECD, 2010a). Most recent evidence suggests that unemployment may have peaked at the end of 2009 in the United States and Japan and that initial projections, which predicted that the OECD unemployment rate would reach 10% at the end of 2010, may have been too pessimistic. Even so, the current economic crisis is comparable to the two deep recessions of the postwar period, in the 1970s and 1990s.
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With the growth and diversification of migration flows to OECD countries over the past 15 years, migration policies have been changing with increasing frequency and now occupy a prime place on the political agenda of many OECD countries. The shaping of migration policies is the result of a complex process in which public opinion and the various participants in the public debate play a significant role.
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