The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India – Update is released following the main report of the Outlook, to ensure that its data, projections and policy discussions remain up-to-date and relevant. The Outlook is a biannual publication on Asia’s regional economic growth, development and regional integration processes. It focuses on the economic conditions of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries (Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (hereafter “Lao PDR”), Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam) and two large economies in the region, China and India.

As shockwaves from the COVID-19 pandemic disrupt economies around the world, growth rates in Emerging Asia are expected to contract in 2020 before rebounding in 2021. The OECD’s Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2020 – Update describes the impact of the crisis on the economies of the region. In addition to the near-term regional economic outlook, it presents policy priorities for coping with the crisis, with a focus on digitalisation, tourism, healthcare and regional co-operation. It also examines the need to boost education quality in Emerging Asia.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused economies around the world to falter to degrees not experienced in decades. Emerging Asian countries (ASEAN 10 countries, China and India) had confirmed more than 1.3 million cases as of early July, with a case fatality rate of roughly 3%. Governments mustered massive monetary and fiscal support to lessen the immense stress on health services and keep the social fabric intact. Quarantines and curfews were imposed to limit the spread of the virus, although these in turn hampered economic activity. The progress in containing infections has been uneven across Emerging Asia. India, Indonesia and the Philippines are still confronting rising case loads.

This chapter presents the economic outlook for the region in light of the global health crisis and the restrictive measures implemented to combat the disease. It describes the near-term drivers and risks to economic growth, which is projected to decline in 2020 across the 12 economies before rebounding in 2021. It also examines the effects of the crisis on travel and tourism, international trade, private consumption, investment, businesses, employment and financial markets, taking into account the fiscal packages and other policy actions implemented to support the economy.

This chapter presents policy priorities for coping with the social and economic impact of COVID-19 in Emerging Asia. It describes how the crisis has transformed the use of digital tools and the opportunity this presents for the region’s tech sector. The chapter outlines the region’s efforts to deal with the pandemic’s devastating effects on travel and tourism. It examines in detail the health aspect of the crisis, including regional and international efforts to redress shortages of medical staff, healthcare facilities and supplies. The chapter also describes how region-wide initiatives for fighting the pandemic strengthened after a slow start. In all of these areas, it provides suggestions for forward-looking policies to be put in place in case of future outbreaks.

The COVID-19 pandemic has left a majority of students worldwide out of school, even if temporarily. While ensuring continuity of education and learning, countries in the region need to address various challenges to improve the quality of education. Access to education will need to be further improved, while at the same time paying more attention to its quality. Properly trained teachers as well as appropriate teaching strategies and a positive environment are crucial to ensure productive learning. Addressing socio-economic divides in various aspects, including digital infrastructure, as well as gender gaps in students’ participation and performance is necessary.