The ‘Achieving a Resilient Future for Small States: Caribbean 2050’ project, aimed at tackling the problems facing the Caribbean, posed some tough questions to policymakers and development partners in the region. Do current development strategies set the region on a path to achieve sustainable development? What happens if the region continues on its current policy path? And is the region positioned to capitalise on the use of its limited resources and emerging opportunities?

The Caribbean region faces numerous economic, social and environmental challenges. The economies have been caught in a low-growth trajectory and falling total factor productivity (TFP), accompanied by high-debt ratios. Since 2000, while real per capita growth rates in developing countries averaged around 4 per cent per annum, the comparable figure for the Caribbean Common Market and Community (CARICOM) was just around 2 per cent. While the small size of the private sector, the lumpiness of government investment and unfavourable external circumstances have contributed significantly to the poor performance of regional economies, weather-related shocks have also served to derail their development efforts. With the expected intensification of adverse weather events resulting from climate change, and Caribbean countries’ limited resources and capacity to respond, the road ahead for the region is expected to be even more challenging.

The islands of the Caribbean have made significant progress in economic and social development in the relatively short time that they have been independent countries. At the time of writing only two of the countries included in this study had been independent for more than 50 years – Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago – and one had been independent for only 35 years (Saint Lucia). Nevertheless, from the 1960s onwards they have made good progress in social and economic development. The 2014 Human Development Report (UNDP 2014) considers all except Guyana to have ‘high human development’. These human development indices were well above the average for other countries of ‘high human development’ for every year that the report was produced until 2008, when Jamaica and Saint Lucia started to slip behind. The year 2008 appears to be a turning point in the development progress of the region. While the average index score for countries of ‘very high human development’ and ‘high human development’ continued to increase, the countries of the Caribbean plateaued or started to dip (except Guyana, which remained on an upward trajectory).

Long-term strategies appear to have slipped in priority in the face of short-term crises. While, in the past, Caribbean countries have been able to regroup after a setback and refocus on their long-term strategic goals, thus not affecting the generally positive trajectory, in recent years, with the protracted economic downturn, progress towards development goals appears to have plateaued.

The pathways presented in chapter 3 provide the Caribbean with a range of possible futures: a ‘business-as-usual’, a best-case and a worst-case scenario. The most compelling and appealing of the three clearly points to the implementation of strategies that will lead to the best-case scenario. Consistent with such a strategy is a vision for the Caribbean as peaceful, prosperous and inclusive; where its people are creative, enterprising and resilient, fully engaged in, and benefiting from, development within the framework of effective institutions that guarantee human rights and social justice.

Commonwealth Caribbean states face several environmental challenges that prevent them achieving sustainable development. The occurrence of natural disasters and the effects of climate change on tourism and agriculture are negatively affecting Caribbean countries, as these industries provide a high percentage of GDP. Additionally, natural disasters can disrupt development prospects, as funds are diverted to deal with the immediate aftermath of a disaster. The role of energy is important in so far as increased access to energy can facilitate economic growth and is integral to human development. Given the aforementioned effects of climate change on the economy, there has been a renewed emphasis on reducing small states’ reliance on fossil fuel imports. This in turn has led to the examination of renewable energy possibilities and the issue of energy security.

Envisioning a creative and enterprising private sector for sustainable innovation, inclusiveness and competitiveness seems challenging and almost enigmatic for the Caribbean, particularly in the light of weakening institutional conditions, persistent ecological vulnerabilities, enduring inequalities and stagnating economic development for well over a decade. The Caribbean’s vulnerability, however, originates not from episodic external events, but – more importantly and persistently – from idiosyncratic internal inertias. Challenging and changing this status quo in small states will require nothing less than a paradigmatic shift and systemic transformation to build resilience based on the needs of a sustainable future rather than accepting or reacting to a multiplex of challenging institutional and market conditions by means of traditional interventions. In essence, the Caribbean will need to innovate its way out – led by the private sector in partnership with public institutions and regional agencies.

As the world embarks on a new set of Sustainable Development Goals endorsed by the international community in September 2015, it is important to recognise the role of young people as key stakeholders in achieving any development goals. As they will inherit the societies and world in which they live, young people have a vested interest in creating a future that is prosperous and peaceful. Development that does not fulfil the needs of young people and equip them with the capacity to effectively transition to the next phase of life is unlikely to be sustainable. Consequently, to be truly effective in achieving the Caribbean we want, we must consider the current and future challenges of the region’s youth. In the Caribbean, 60 per cent of the population are under 30 (Forbes 2015). This significant segment of the population is a critical force for change and development, yet young people still face major challenges. They are often burdened by unemployment and underemployment. The Caribbean Development Bank (2015) reports that the youth unemployment rate for countries in the region with available data is on average 25 per cent, while the adult rate ranges between 6 per cent and 15 per cent. Moreover, a regional youth unemployment rate of 25 per cent is nearly double the global average for youth unemployment, which is 14 per cent (World Development Indicators 2015).