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The ITF Transport Outlook 2021 presents scenarios for global transport demand over the next three decades to 2050. It covers passenger and freight transport and all transport modes. The scenarios include detailed projections for transport’s CO2 emissions under different conditions, allowing an assessment of the potential impacts of future transport activity on climate change. This edition analyses the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on transport systems and their role in social equity and human well-being. The scenarios model potential long-term changes caused by the pandemic and link them to challenges and opportunities for decarbonising transport. The Transport Outlook identifies policy actions that are critical to ensure an effective and equitable transition to sustainable mobility on an urban, regional and global level in the wake of the pandemic. Three different scenarios were modelled. The Recovery scenario represents the world’s current efforts, extrapolated to 2050. The Reshape scenario assumes governments will implement ambitious decarbonisation policies beyond those currently in place. In the Reshape+ scenario, governments in addition leverage opportunities for transport decarbonisation created by the Covid-19 pandemic.
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This chapter examines transport’s role in climate change and social inequality. It explores the impacts of Covid-19 on this and how to turn recovery into an opportunity for advancing decarbonisation and inclusion. It also explores global population trends and the changes in demographics that will influence the future needs of transport users. It recognises that policies set today under an uncertain economic outlook will profoundly affect the lives of future generations.
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This chapter presents three policy scenarios for the development of transport demand and associated emissions over the next 30 years. Results are aggregated across passenger and freight transport and provide an overall view of the entire transport sector. It also discusses global approaches to transport decarbonisation that will ensure fair burden-sharing among social groups and countries.
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This chapter demonstrates that urban passenger transport plays a vital role in curbing greenhouse gas emissions, boosting access to opportunities and spurring economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. It presents three scenarios for future urban passenger transport demand and resulting CO2 and local pollutant emissions, as well as the impacts on accessibility for citizens. It also discusses how decarbonisation initiatives can help to reduce inequalities and make urban transport systems more resilient.
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Non-urban passenger transport is characterised by longer distances and fewer passengers than urban mobility. This chapter examines the decisive role of regional and intercity travel for reducing overall transport emissions. It outlines the challenges and opportunities of decarbonising the sector during Covid-19 recovery and presents projections for the future of non‑urban passenger activity and emissions under three different scenarios. The chapter also discusses the social impacts of decarbonisation policies and highlights important considerations for equitable implementation.
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This chapter highlights the significant role freight transport plays in a sustainable transport system and the challenges in decarbonising the sector. It presents estimates for freight activity and emissions for the next 30 years under three scenarios and gives recommendations for policies to set the movement of goods on a sustainable path. It includes a discussion of potential regional imbalances associated with decarbonisation and outlines important considerations for ensuring an equitable transition to cleaner freight transport.
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