Through its Future of Work Initiative, the OECD monitors closely how labour markets are changing in response to the mega-trends of technological change, globalisation and population ageing, amongst others. The aim is to better understand the opportunities and risks associated with these developments, and provide evidence-based advice on how countries could respond in the areas of skills and employment policies, social protection, labour market regulation, taxation and social dialogue.

The world of work is changing. Technological progress, globalisation and population ageing are having a significant impact on the labour market – not only by creating many new job opportunities and destroying obsolete ones, but also by profoundly changing how most ongoing jobs are carried out. Belgium is likely to be strongly impacted by these mega-trends: 14% of jobs are estimated to be at high risk of automation in the next 15 years; more than half of business sector jobs are dependent on demand from abroad; and the ratio of older to working-age persons is expected to increase by 46% over the next 30 years.

The world is changing and this is having a profound impact on labour markets: on the number and nature of jobs, as well as on the distribution of work and income. No country is left unaffected, including Belgium.

This chapter paints a picture of who the low-educated in Belgium are, how the demographics of this group have changed over time, and how they compare to those with more education. The analysis also assesses to what extent employment outcomes for the low-educated in Belgium can be linked to observable differences in their demographic characteristics compared to the low-educated in neighbouring countries. As in many other countries, the share of low-educated in Belgium has fallen over time, but it remains higher than in the Netherlands, France and especially Germany. The share of low‑educated is particularly high among non-EU migrants and older individuals. However, the analysis presented in this chapter shows that these differences in demographics between Belgium and its neighbours are small, and that they cannot explain the differences in employment rates for the low-educated.

This chapter reviews the labour market outcomes of the low-educated in Belgium, focusing on both job quantity and job quality aspects. The employment rate of the low-educated is very low compared to neighbouring countries, which is due in particular to a very low participation rate. There are also important regional differences in these outcomes. By contrast, job quality for the low-educated in Belgium is relatively high compared to neighbouring countries. The low-educated in Belgium who are in work enjoy relatively high wages and are less likely to be in non-standard work compared to their peers in neighbouring countries.

This chapter takes a forward-looking view of the labour market for low‑educated workers in Belgium, focusing on both job quantity and quality, as well as on issues of skills gaps and mismatches. The number of jobs occupied by low-educated workers in Belgium is forecast to decline, as is their employment rate. In the future, the remaining jobs for low-educated workers will be primarily in elementary occupations, but the industry composition of those jobs will continue to shift towards services. The shift towards service industries is likely to bring lower job quality for low‑educated workers.

This chapter focuses on policies and institutions that have a potential impact on the labour market performance of the low-educated, including: minimum wages, collective bargaining, taxation, unemployment benefits, activation measures, training, and employment protection legislation, amongst others. The chapter focuses on comparisons between Belgium and neighbouring countries to identify areas where reforms offer promise for improving outcomes for the low-educated in Belgium. The chapter concludes that high labour costs and poor work incentives are likely to be barriers to better labour market outcomes for the low-educated in Belgium, and that further investments in education and lifelong learning will be required.