Global growth and confidence have moderated
Rising trade tensions have affected capital spending plans and added to uncertainty
Global growth is set to ease gradually
Global trade is slowing and trade intensity remains modest
The crisis has had a persistent impact on living standards
Potential output growth is projected to slow under current policies
Survey indicators point to rising capacity constraints
Wage growth could pick up quickly as labour markets tighten
Inflation is projected to rise modestly in the advanced economies
Tariffs are already visible in US trade and price data
The adverse effects of higher tariffs could intensify
Tariff and NTM estimates for selected economies
Price effects and regulatory similarity with partners
Supply disruptions could push up oil prices, with a negative impact on global activity
Financial tensions have risen in emerging-market economies
Financial and trade exposures to Argentina and Turkey are generally small
The output effect of higher risk premia in emerging-market economies
Fundamentals differ across emerging-market economies
Changes in financial conditions in emerging-market economies during past and recent turbulence
Several central banks have become dominant holders of domestic government bonds
Sovereign and bank riskiness have risen in Italy
Cost of bank credit and bank credit growth
Italian banks remain exposed to sovereign debt
Fiscal policy will be broadly neutral and government debt will fall in most OECD countries
Debt servicing costs could still decline in some G7 countries
GDP effects of selected structural reforms in G7 countries
An interaction of downside risks would slow global growth substantially
Policy options to offset a global cyclical downturn
Global growth is set to slow