GDP growth projections for the major economies
The cyclical upturn has gathered pace this year
The upturn is broad-based, but remains modest by past standards
The trade upturn is being driven from Asia, but global trade intensity growth remains low
Global investment intensity remains below past norms
Business dynamism has declined in several advanced economies
Investment shortfalls are set to persist
Rising depreciation rates are helping to hold down net investment in productive capital
The upturn in the global IT cycle points to improving prospects for high-tech investment
The output gains from faster technical progress growth in the advanced economies
Hurdle rates for corporate investment are well above the cost of capital
GDP growth is subdued in the emerging market economies and medium-term prospects have declined
China is an important trading partner for smaller Asian economies and commodity exporters
Potential GDP growth has fallen in many EMEs
Reform responsiveness and improvements in regulatory quality have slowed in many EMEs
Inflation is projected to remain moderate in the major economies
Recent low core inflation has been driven by a mixture of idiosyncratic factors and longer-term trends
The distributions of disaggregated core inflation price changes have shifted and become less dispersed
Corporate expectations of selling prices have strengthened
Employment and participation rates are now rising in the advanced economies
Wage growth remains moderate despite declining unemployment
Compositional changes have had only modest net effects on the growth of average wages
Changes in bond yields, equity prices and exchange rates since early May
Long-term bond yields in the euro area reflect differences in government debt more closely than prior to the crisis
Equity market performance
Risk-taking in bond markets persists
Gross issuance of bonds by non-financial corporations has been strong
Volatility in financial markets has remained subdued
Low volatility is broadly in line with the low perceived uncertainty of future economic growth
Total social financing flows in China remain robust despite the tightening of financial conditions
The size and composition of central banks' balance sheets have changed massively over the past decade
Changes in the amount outstanding of banknotes
Markets expect policy interest rates to differ among the main economic areas
Projections of the US Federal Reserve balance sheet
The fiscal stance is expected to ease in many OECD countries
Overall government budget balances are projected to improve in most OECD countries
Government interest payments have declined despite rising debt in many OECD countries
The modest cyclical recovery will continue
Reform recommendations to help strengthen business dynamism and knowledge diffusion