OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
Japan
In 2020, Japan is on course to experience its deepest recession of the post-war era, with at best a modest recovery in 2021. Economic activity has plummeted in the first half of 2020, reflecting the impact of incrementally stepped-up confinement measures and lower external demand. Large‑scale fiscal support and the gradual lifting of the confinement measures will help to partially reverse the collapse but, in the event of a second outbreak later in the year, re-confinement would impart another economic blow. GDP is expected to fall by 6% in 2020 in the single‑hit scenario and by 7¼ per cent in the double‑hit scenario. Headline inflation is projected to turn negative in 2020, reflecting considerable economic slack and a fall in energy prices.