OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 1
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
Poland
Strict confinement measures have taken a heavy toll on the economy. Assuming the current pandemic wanes progressively and further outbreaks are avoided (single-hit scenario), GDP is projected to contract by 7.4% in 2020, followed by a rebound of 4.8% in 2021. In the equally likely double‑hit scenario, a second outbreak later in the year and renewed containment measures will lead to significantly weaker growth outcomes: a 9.5% contraction in 2020 and a 2.4% recovery in 2021. The government has launched sizeable financial support for businesses, largely non-refundable, and taken other extensive policy measures, notably for self‑employed, temporary workers and small firms, which will help cushion employment losses and sustain household and business income. Yet, high unemployment will dent consumption growth, and lingering uncertainty is set to weigh on private investment, limiting the recovery and, especially in the double-hit scenario, rising risks of hysteresis effects.