OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028

The Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets.
This year's Special Feature will focus on agricultural development in Latin America.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028 - © OECD 2019
C.12.2 | World trade projections, exports | ||||||||||||
C.12.2 | World trade projections, exports | ||||||||||||
| | | Average 2016-18est | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| Wheat | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 95 095 | 100 252 | 100 808 | 101 432 | 102 001 | 102 457 | 103 471 | 104 459 | 105 285 | 106 147 | 106 795 |
| Developing countries | kt | 23 641 | 23 318 | 23 586 | 23 799 | 23 979 | 24 237 | 24 706 | 25 071 | 25 474 | 25 888 | 26 377 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 121 | 110 | 108 | 106 | 105 | 103 | 101 | 99 | 97 | 95 | 94 |
| Maize | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 67 230 | 67 606 | 68 104 | 68 381 | 69 057 | 69 650 | 70 080 | 70 603 | 71 156 | 71 644 | 72 143 |
| Developing countries | kt | 63 538 | 70 390 | 71 235 | 72 595 | 73 893 | 75 312 | 76 895 | 78 404 | 79 985 | 81 514 | 83 004 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 3 216 | 2 748 | 2 637 | 2 590 | 2 558 | 2 536 | 2 518 | 2 485 | 2 458 | 2 425 | 2 382 |
| Other coarse grains | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 27 502 | 25 785 | 26 297 | 26 272 | 26 768 | 26 675 | 27 191 | 27 370 | 27 611 | 27 842 | 28 120 |
| Developing countries | kt | 4 564 | 4 540 | 4 306 | 4 317 | 4 264 | 4 315 | 4 373 | 4 406 | 4 471 | 4 558 | 4 650 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 857 | 476 | 236 | 210 | 161 | 175 | 157 | 157 | 156 | 156 | 154 |
| Rice | ||||||||||||
| OECD 1 | kt | 4 212 | 4 516 | 4 473 | 4 466 | 4 526 | 4 561 | 4 610 | 4 640 | 4 673 | 4 708 | 4 745 |
| Developing countries | kt | 42 990 | 45 285 | 46 755 | 47 639 | 48 424 | 49 343 | 50 347 | 51 355 | 52 415 | 53 494 | 54 620 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 4 704 | 4 806 | 5 384 | 5 463 | 5 636 | 5 844 | 6 066 | 6 308 | 6 571 | 6 850 | 7 162 |
| Soybean | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 60 897 | 56 050 | 56 704 | 56 984 | 57 244 | 57 679 | 58 474 | 59 485 | 60 570 | 61 622 | 62 589 |
| Developing countries | kt | 86 446 | 92 902 | 93 917 | 95 388 | 96 719 | 98 215 | 99 150 | 99 955 | 100 728 | 101 589 | 102 512 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 64 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 74 | 73 | 72 | 71 | 69 | 68 | 66 |
| Other oilseeds | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 15 324 | 14 606 | 14 900 | 15 224 | 15 380 | 15 591 | 15 799 | 15 919 | 16 080 | 16 219 | 16 499 |
| Developing countries | kt | 2 854 | 2 898 | 2 904 | 2 901 | 2 872 | 2 812 | 2 763 | 2 735 | 2 708 | 2 696 | 2 678 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 105 | 112 | 91 | 99 | 94 | 97 | 95 | 99 | 98 | 100 | 98 |
| Protein Meals | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 19 738 | 20 540 | 20 699 | 20 533 | 20 532 | 20 716 | 20 911 | 21 102 | 21 332 | 21 538 | 21 767 |
| Developing countries | kt | 65 405 | 67 858 | 68 674 | 69 450 | 70 235 | 71 189 | 72 165 | 73 176 | 74 191 | 75 237 | 76 360 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 359 | 407 | 396 | 400 | 399 | 403 | 403 | 406 | 405 | 408 | 410 |
| Vegetable Oils | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 7 775 | 7 435 | 7 581 | 7 616 | 7 651 | 7 692 | 7 828 | 7 901 | 8 006 | 8 100 | 8 293 |
| Developing countries | kt | 65 521 | 67 913 | 68 827 | 69 811 | 70 690 | 71 475 | 72 254 | 73 158 | 74 074 | 75 010 | 75 905 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 453 | 468 | 457 | 448 | 438 | 427 | 415 | 404 | 392 | 382 | 371 |
| Sugar | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 8 792 | 8 974 | 8 651 | 8 779 | 9 062 | 9 405 | 9 727 | 9 977 | 10 235 | 10 455 | 10 624 |
| Developing countries | kt | 52 366 | 48 226 | 48 421 | 49 680 | 50 737 | 51 628 | 52 240 | 52 981 | 53 594 | 54 374 | 55 356 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 2 466 | 954 | 637 | 449 | 399 | 384 | 374 | 384 | 388 | 369 | 348 |
| Beef 2 | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 4 831 | 5 041 | 5 083 | 5 115 | 5 165 | 5 227 | 5 259 | 5 287 | 5 335 | 5 381 | 5 429 |
| Developing countries | kt | 4 767 | 5 098 | 5 213 | 5 353 | 5 490 | 5 618 | 5 744 | 5 864 | 5 999 | 6 140 | 6 271 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Pigmeat 2 | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 7 681 | 8 291 | 8 178 | 8 025 | 8 062 | 8 113 | 8 163 | 8 231 | 8 300 | 8 369 | 8 438 |
| Developing countries | kt | 1 140 | 1 179 | 1 236 | 1 264 | 1 285 | 1 300 | 1 313 | 1 324 | 1 335 | 1 345 | 1 356 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Poultry meat | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 6 811 | 7 061 | 7 270 | 7 323 | 7 394 | 7 547 | 7 663 | 7 770 | 7 890 | 8 008 | 8 121 |
| Developing countries | kt | 7 093 | 7 454 | 7 479 | 7 668 | 7 828 | 7 955 | 8 130 | 8 316 | 8 480 | 8 656 | 8 840 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 19 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 |
| Sheep meat 2 | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 1 092 | 1 056 | 1 076 | 1 101 | 1 115 | 1 126 | 1 132 | 1 139 | 1 147 | 1 156 | 1 164 |
| Developing countries | kt | 87 | 106 | 99 | 98 | 98 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 103 | 104 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Butter | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 900 | 904 | 940 | 961 | 974 | 981 | 992 | 1 002 | 1 016 | 1 030 | 1 043 |
| Developing countries | kt | 79 | 68 | 69 | 68 | 67 | 66 | 66 | 66 | 67 | 67 | 67 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Cheese | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 2 440 | 2 550 | 2 633 | 2 701 | 2 754 | 2 802 | 2 852 | 2 902 | 2 950 | 2 996 | 3 038 |
| Developing countries | kt | 447 | 356 | 358 | 370 | 375 | 380 | 385 | 389 | 396 | 403 | 410 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Whole milk powder | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 1 858 | 1 976 | 2 001 | 2 018 | 2 041 | 2 053 | 2 068 | 2 083 | 2 099 | 2 117 | 2 136 |
| Developing countries | kt | 576 | 567 | 573 | 580 | 585 | 594 | 605 | 618 | 630 | 641 | 651 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Skim milk powder | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 2 170 | 2 354 | 2 376 | 2 428 | 2 465 | 2 508 | 2 553 | 2 600 | 2 646 | 2 694 | 2 742 |
| Developing countries | kt | 262 | 311 | 311 | 309 | 310 | 309 | 309 | 308 | 308 | 307 | 307 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 5 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Fish 3 | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 12 793 | 12 914 | 13 044 | 13 038 | 13 116 | 13 243 | 13 344 | 13 458 | 13 373 | 13 567 | 13 668 |
| Developing countries | kt | 27 013 | 27 203 | 27 358 | 27 881 | 28 772 | 28 827 | 29 343 | 29 411 | 29 884 | 30 306 | 30 693 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 1 594 | 1 516 | 1 478 | 1 453 | 1 394 | 1 365 | 1 325 | 1 293 | 1 250 | 1 202 | 1 158 |
| Fishmeal 4 | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 847 | 860 | 866 | 827 | 836 | 843 | 857 | 868 | 849 | 870 | 867 |
| Developing countries | kt | 2 042 | 2 230 | 2 289 | 2 162 | 2 148 | 2 178 | 2 210 | 2 226 | 2 129 | 2 206 | 2 210 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 156 | 150 | 155 | 160 | 163 | 165 | 167 | 168 | 171 | 173 | 174 |
| Fish oil 4 | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 449 | 461 | 465 | 459 | 462 | 470 | 463 | 474 | 476 | 480 | 488 |
| Developing countries | kt | 430 | 443 | 449 | 435 | 433 | 444 | 442 | 449 | 441 | 451 | 467 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 30 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 35 | 36 | 36 | 37 | 37 |
| Ethanol | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 6 793 | 7 105 | 6 662 | 6 554 | 6 316 | 6 327 | 6 173 | 6 126 | 5 998 | 5 920 | 5 812 |
| Developing countries | kt | 3 295 | 3 563 | 3 764 | 3 863 | 4 002 | 4 059 | 4 189 | 4 176 | 4 197 | 4 192 | 4 212 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Biodiesel | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 1 681 | 2 106 | 1 882 | 1 872 | 1 852 | 1 811 | 1 763 | 1 710 | 1 660 | 1 611 | 1 559 |
| Developing countries | kt | 2 445 | 2 686 | 2 243 | 1 973 | 1 846 | 1 830 | 1 841 | 1 854 | 1 863 | 1 873 | 1 884 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cotton | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 4 565 | 4 382 | 4 591 | 4 625 | 4 717 | 4 754 | 4 789 | 4 837 | 4 889 | 4 939 | 4 985 |
| Developing countries | kt | 3 707 | 4 868 | 4 947 | 5 105 | 5 220 | 5 370 | 5 475 | 5 620 | 5 770 | 5 926 | 6 085 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 1 056 | 1 237 | 1 265 | 1 300 | 1 339 | 1 380 | 1 422 | 1 465 | 1 507 | 1 550 | 1 595 |
| Roots and tubers | ||||||||||||
| OECD | kt | 1 718 | 1 749 | 1 733 | 1 780 | 1 763 | 1 812 | 1 812 | 1 850 | 1 858 | 1 893 | 1 909 |
| Developing countries | kt | 11 063 | 11 697 | 11 815 | 11 851 | 11 983 | 12 047 | 12 182 | 12 285 | 12 412 | 12 521 | 12 636 |
| Least Developed Countries | kt | 130 | 154 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 136 | 135 | 132 | 131 | 128 | 125 |
Note: Average 2016-18est: Data for 2018 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU member countries | |||||||||||||
Excludes trade of live animals. | |||||||||||||
Data are in live weight equivalent and refer to trade of food fish i.e. for human consumption. | |||||||||||||
Data are in product weight. | |||||||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2019), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |