1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 provides a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national, regional, and global levels, and serves as a reference for forward-looking policy analysis and planning. Projections suggest that, following a business-as-usual path, SDG 2 on Zero Hunger would not be achieved by 2030 and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture would continue to increase. To achieve the Zero Hunger target while reducing direct GHG by 6%, overall agricultural productivity would need to increase by 28% over the next decade. Comprehensive action to boost agricultural investment and innovation, and to enable technology transfer are urgently required in order to put the agricultural sector on the necessary sustainable growth trajectory. Additional efforts to reduce food loss and waste, and to limit excess calorie and protein intakes would also be necessary. This report is a collaborative effort between the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, prepared with inputs from Member countries and international commodity organisations. It highlights fundamental economic and social trends driving the global agri-food sector, assuming no major changes to weather conditions or policies.

More information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org.

English Also available in: French, Chinese, Spanish

From Chapter: Statistical Annex

Table C.2 - World oilseed projections

English Also available in: French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 - © OECD 2022

‌C.2World oilseed projections
C.2World oilseed projections
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2019-21est
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
2028
‌2029‌
‌2030‌
‌2031‌
SOYBEAN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
353.0
 
376.6
 
381.1
 
383.9
 
388.3
 
391.8
 
396.5
 
400.2
 
404.2
 
407.5
 
411.1
 
Area
Mha
128.1
 
133.3
 
133.9
 
134.1
 
134.5
 
134.8
 
135.5
 
135.8
 
136.2
 
136.3
 
136.6
 
Yield
t/ha
2.76
 
2.82
 
2.85
 
2.86
 
2.89
 
2.91
 
2.93
 
2.95
 
2.97
 
2.99
 
3.01
 
Consumption
Mt
360.1
 
373.3
 
378.4
 
383.1
 
387.7
 
391.3
 
395.7
 
399.5
 
403.2
 
406.7
 
410.8
 
Crush
Mt
327.0
 
336.4
 
341.3
 
345.9
 
350.3
 
353.7
 
357.8
 
361.3
 
364.8
 
368.1
 
372.0
 
Closing stocks
Mt
38.5
 
40.5
 
43.3
 
44.1
 
44.7
 
45.2
 
46.0
 
46.7
 
47.7
 
48.5
 
48.8
 
Price 1
USD/t
510.7
 
560.3
 
497.2
 
472.2
 
475.0
 
480.0
 
489.4
 
499.6
 
504.8
 
512.4
 
523.3
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
129.6
 
140.7
 
142.9
 
143.8
 
145.5
 
146.8
 
148.5
 
149.7
 
151.2
 
152.4
 
153.6
 
Consumption
Mt
96.8
 
97.5
 
99.3
 
100.4
 
101.2
 
102.1
 
102.9
 
103.5
 
104.3
 
105.2
 
105.8
 
Crush
Mt
88.6
 
88.8
 
90.6
 
91.7
 
92.4
 
93.3
 
94.1
 
94.6
 
95.4
 
96.3
 
96.8
 
Closing stocks
Mt
10.8
 
9.3
 
10.8
 
11.1
 
11.3
 
11.4
 
11.6
 
11.8
 
12.0
 
12.1
 
12.3
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
223.4
 
235.9
 
238.2
 
240.0
 
242.8
 
245.1
 
248.1
 
250.5
 
253.0
 
255.1
 
257.4
 
Consumption
Mt
263.3
 
275.8
 
279.1
 
282.7
 
286.5
 
289.3
 
292.8
 
296.0
 
298.9
 
301.5
 
305.0
 
Crush
Mt
238.4
 
247.6
 
250.7
 
254.2
 
257.8
 
260.4
 
263.7
 
266.7
 
269.4
 
271.8
 
275.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
27.7
 
31.2
 
32.5
 
33.0
 
33.4
 
33.8
 
34.4
 
35.0
 
35.7
 
36.4
 
36.5
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
120.5
 
131.8
 
133.8
 
134.7
 
136.2
 
137.2
 
138.7
 
139.8
 
141.0
 
142.0
 
143.1
 
Consumption
Mt
98.1
 
98.7
 
100.5
 
101.5
 
102.4
 
103.3
 
104.1
 
104.7
 
105.5
 
106.4
 
106.9
 
Crush
Mt
90.3
 
90.4
 
92.2
 
93.2
 
94.1
 
95.0
 
95.7
 
96.2
 
97.0
 
97.9
 
98.4
 
Closing stocks
Mt
11.1
 
9.6
 
11.2
 
11.7
 
11.9
 
12.0
 
12.2
 
12.4
 
12.6
 
12.7
 
12.9
 
OTHER OILSEEDS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
159.8
 
169.7
 
171.6
 
172.5
 
176.2
 
178.3
 
180.1
 
182.1
 
184.0
 
185.9
 
187.6
 
Area
Mha
91.5
 
95.3
 
95.3
 
95.4
 
96.3
 
96.5
 
96.6
 
96.7
 
96.9
 
97.1
 
97.2
 
Yield
t/ha
1.75
 
1.78
 
1.80
 
1.81
 
1.83
 
1.85
 
1.87
 
1.88
 
1.90
 
1.92
 
1.93
 
Consumption
Mt
159.9
 
167.4
 
171.7
 
173.0
 
176.1
 
178.4
 
180.2
 
182.2
 
184.0
 
185.9
 
187.6
 
Crush
Mt
138.3
 
145.5
 
149.8
 
151.3
 
154.4
 
156.8
 
158.7
 
160.7
 
162.5
 
164.5
 
166.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
9.3
 
11.4
 
11.3
 
10.8
 
10.9
 
10.8
 
10.8
 
10.7
 
10.7
 
10.7
 
10.8
 
Price 3
USD/t
612.1
 
720.5
 
589.9
 
581.7
 
559.5
 
562.1
 
577.5
 
585.0
 
593.7
 
602.9
 
612.4
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
94.7
 
102.2
 
103.2
 
103.5
 
106.3
 
107.8
 
108.9
 
110.1
 
111.3
 
112.4
 
113.4
 
Consumption
Mt
87.9
 
91.7
 
95.0
 
95.7
 
97.6
 
98.9
 
99.7
 
100.6
 
101.4
 
102.3
 
103.1
 
Crush
Mt
80.4
 
84.0
 
87.2
 
88.0
 
89.9
 
91.1
 
91.9
 
92.8
 
93.5
 
94.3
 
95.1
 
Closing stocks
Mt
7.0
 
8.9
 
8.8
 
8.3
 
8.4
 
8.3
 
8.2
 
8.1
 
8.1
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
65.1
 
67.5
 
68.4
 
69.0
 
69.9
 
70.5
 
71.3
 
72.0
 
72.8
 
73.5
 
74.2
 
Consumption
Mt
71.9
 
75.6
 
76.7
 
77.3
 
78.5
 
79.5
 
80.5
 
81.6
 
82.6
 
83.6
 
84.5
 
Crush
Mt
57.8
 
61.5
 
62.6
 
63.3
 
64.5
 
65.7
 
66.8
 
67.9
 
69.0
 
70.1
 
71.1
 
Closing stocks
Mt
2.3
 
2.4
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.7
 
2.7
 
2.7
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
56.0
 
62.6
 
62.5
 
62.0
 
63.7
 
64.5
 
64.7
 
65.2
 
65.7
 
66.2
 
66.5
 
Consumption
Mt
57.2
 
59.0
 
61.5
 
61.9
 
63.0
 
63.6
 
63.9
 
64.2
 
64.4
 
64.6
 
64.8
 
Crush
Mt
51.6
 
53.6
 
56.0
 
56.4
 
57.5
 
58.1
 
58.3
 
58.7
 
58.8
 
59.0
 
59.1
 
Closing stocks
Mt
4.8
 
6.1
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.7
 
6.7
 
6.7
 
6.6
 
6.6
 
6.6
 
6.6
 
PROTEIN MEALS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
357.5
 
368.6
 
375.0
 
379.8
 
385.1
 
389.1
 
393.6
 
397.6
 
401.6
 
405.3
 
409.6
 
Consumption
Mt
358.5
 
368.2
 
374.5
 
379.7
 
385.1
 
389.2
 
393.6
 
397.6
 
401.5
 
405.2
 
409.4
 
Closing stocks
Mt
13.7
 
14.0
 
14.5
 
14.7
 
14.7
 
14.6
 
14.6
 
14.6
 
14.7
 
14.8
 
15.0
 
Price 4
USD/t
407.5
 
437.5
 
391.5
 
373.2
 
371.4
 
375.2
 
385.7
 
392.7
 
399.5
 
406.9
 
412.3
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
113.3
 
115.3
 
118.3
 
119.5
 
121.0
 
122.3
 
123.4
 
124.3
 
125.3
 
126.4
 
127.2
 
Consumption
Mt
124.1
 
123.9
 
126.4
 
127.1
 
128.0
 
128.3
 
128.4
 
128.7
 
128.8
 
128.9
 
129.1
 
Closing stocks
Mt
2.4
 
2.3
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
244.2
 
253.3
 
256.7
 
260.3
 
264.1
 
266.8
 
270.2
 
273.4
 
276.3
 
278.9
 
282.3
 
Consumption
Mt
234.4
 
244.4
 
248.1
 
252.6
 
257.1
 
260.9
 
265.2
 
268.9
 
272.7
 
276.3
 
280.4
 
Closing stocks
Mt
11.3
 
11.7
 
12.2
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.2
 
12.2
 
12.3
 
12.4
 
12.5
 
12.6
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
103.3
 
104.6
 
107.3
 
108.4
 
109.7
 
110.8
 
111.6
 
112.2
 
113.0
 
113.9
 
114.4
 
Consumption
Mt
130.3
 
129.9
 
132.3
 
133.1
 
134.1
 
134.6
 
134.8
 
135.2
 
135.5
 
135.7
 
136.0
 
Closing stocks
Mt
1.7
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
VEGETABLE OILS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
214.3
 
224.4
 
228.4
 
230.8
 
234.1
 
236.7
 
239.4
 
241.9
 
244.2
 
246.5
 
249.0
 
of which palm oil
Mt
76.6
 
81.9
 
82.9
 
83.6
 
84.6
 
85.4
 
86.4
 
87.3
 
88.1
 
88.8
 
89.6
 
Consumption
Mt
213.8
 
223.5
 
228.0
 
230.9
 
233.8
 
236.4
 
239.0
 
241.5
 
244.0
 
246.3
 
248.7
 
Food
Mt
140.7
 
144.1
 
147.5
 
149.7
 
152.2
 
154.4
 
156.6
 
158.5
 
160.5
 
162.4
 
164.3
 
Biofuel
Mt
32.1
 
36.4
 
36.2
 
36.4
 
36.3
 
36.2
 
36.2
 
36.3
 
36.2
 
36.3
 
36.4
 
Exports
Mt
85.6
 
87.5
 
88.7
 
89.4
 
90.2
 
90.9
 
91.5
 
92.1
 
92.5
 
93.0
 
93.5
 
Closing stocks
Mt
17.8
 
19.0
 
19.3
 
19.3
 
19.6
 
19.9
 
20.2
 
20.5
 
20.8
 
21.1
 
21.4
 
Price 5
USD/t
1 145.1
 
1 218.5
 
1 091.3
 
1 109.3
 
1 100.2
 
1 117.5
 
1 129.9
 
1 147.5
 
1 163.0
 
1 181.8
 
1 200.8
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
53.0
 
54.4
 
56.1
 
56.6
 
57.6
 
58.3
 
58.8
 
59.3
 
59.8
 
60.3
 
60.8
 
Consumption
Mt
55.9
 
58.1
 
58.3
 
58.5
 
58.5
 
58.4
 
58.4
 
58.4
 
58.3
 
58.3
 
58.5
 
Closing stocks
Mt
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.4
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
161.3
 
170.0
 
172.3
 
174.2
 
176.5
 
178.4
 
180.6
 
182.6
 
184.4
 
186.2
 
188.1
 
Consumption
Mt
157.9
 
165.4
 
169.7
 
172.4
 
175.4
 
177.9
 
180.6
 
183.2
 
185.6
 
187.9
 
190.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
13.6
 
14.6
 
14.9
 
15.0
 
15.2
 
15.5
 
15.9
 
16.2
 
16.5
 
16.7
 
17.0
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
43.2
 
44.0
 
45.4
 
45.8
 
46.4
 
46.9
 
47.2
 
47.5
 
47.8
 
48.0
 
48.3
 
Consumption
Mt
57.6
 
60.2
 
60.5
 
60.7
 
60.7
 
60.7
 
60.7
 
60.7
 
60.6
 
60.6
 
60.8
 
Closing stocks
Mt
4.0
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
Note: Average 2019-21est: Data for 2021 are estimated. Prices are in nominal terms.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Soybean, U.S., CIF Rotterdam (October/September).
2.
Excludes Iceland and Costa Rica but includes all EU member countries.
3.
Rapeseed, Europe, CIF Hamburg (October/September).
4.
Weighted average protein meal, European port (October/September).
5.
Weighted average price of oilseed oils and palm oil, European port (October/September).
Source: OECD/FAO (2022), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database).dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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