OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028
The Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets.
This year's Special Feature will focus on agricultural development in Latin America.
From Chapter:
Statistical Annex
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028 - © OECD 2019
| C.1 | World cereal projections | ||||||||||||
| C.1 | World cereal projections | ||||||||||||
| Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | | | Average 2016-18est | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
| | WHEAT | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 752.2 | 766.4 | 772.9 | 781.0 | 788.8 | 796.5 | 804.8 | 812.8 | 821.6 | 829.8 | 838.0 |
| | Area | Mha | 219.0 | 220.5 | 220.2 | 220.2 | 220.2 | 220.2 | 220.4 | 220.5 | 220.8 | 220.9 | 221.0 |
| | Yield | t/ha | 3.43 | 3.48 | 3.51 | 3.55 | 3.58 | 3.62 | 3.65 | 3.69 | 3.72 | 3.76 | 3.79 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 741.1 | 751.6 | 764.7 | 776.0 | 787.1 | 795.1 | 802.1 | 810.1 | 818.4 | 826.7 | 834.8 |
| | Feed use | Mt | 146.3 | 147.8 | 150.9 | 153.1 | 155.4 | 157.5 | 159.4 | 161.4 | 163.5 | 165.5 | 167.7 |
| | Food use | Mt | 503.4 | 512.5 | 518.4 | 525.5 | 531.5 | 535.1 | 538.0 | 542.3 | 546.5 | 550.8 | 554.5 |
| | Biofuel use | Mt | 12.3 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 13.7 | 14.0 | 14.5 | 14.9 | 15.3 | 15.7 |
| | Other use | Mt | 79.1 | 78.7 | 82.6 | 84.3 | 86.8 | 88.8 | 90.7 | 92.0 | 93.5 | 95.1 | 96.9 |
| | Exports | Mt | 176.6 | 181.4 | 185.2 | 187.3 | 189.9 | 191.9 | 193.9 | 196.7 | 199.2 | 201.7 | 204.0 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 286.0 | 301.6 | 309.8 | 314.8 | 316.6 | 317.9 | 320.6 | 323.3 | 326.5 | 329.6 | 332.8 |
| | Price 1 | USD/t | 221.1 | 225.9 | 217.1 | 216.0 | 217.4 | 221.0 | 224.9 | 227.9 | 231.4 | 234.7 | 237.5 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 394.3 | 402.9 | 405.6 | 409.4 | 412.7 | 415.8 | 419.6 | 423.3 | 427.6 | 431.3 | 434.8 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 273.6 | 271.3 | 273.3 | 275.3 | 277.7 | 279.6 | 281.0 | 282.7 | 284.6 | 286.3 | 288.1 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 122.2 | 126.8 | 130.4 | 132.6 | 135.1 | 136.9 | 138.3 | 140.8 | 142.7 | 144.8 | 146.5 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 79.8 | 77.1 | 79.1 | 80.6 | 80.4 | 79.7 | 80.0 | 79.9 | 80.2 | 80.4 | 80.6 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 357.9 | 363.6 | 367.3 | 371.5 | 376.2 | 380.7 | 385.1 | 389.5 | 394.0 | 398.5 | 403.2 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 467.5 | 480.2 | 491.4 | 500.7 | 509.3 | 515.5 | 521.1 | 527.4 | 533.8 | 540.3 | 546.8 |
| | Net trade | Mt | -120.5 | -126.8 | -130.4 | -132.6 | -135.1 | -136.9 | -138.3 | -140.8 | -142.7 | -144.8 | -146.5 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 206.2 | 224.5 | 230.7 | 234.2 | 236.2 | 238.2 | 240.6 | 243.4 | 246.2 | 249.2 | 252.2 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 282.3 | 291.6 | 292.8 | 294.8 | 296.3 | 297.8 | 299.9 | 301.8 | 304.4 | 306.4 | 308.3 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 225.4 | 225.6 | 227.1 | 228.8 | 230.7 | 232.2 | 233.2 | 234.4 | 235.8 | 237.1 | 238.4 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 57.9 | 63.7 | 64.0 | 64.7 | 65.6 | 65.9 | 66.8 | 67.7 | 68.4 | 69.2 | 69.7 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 65.1 | 62.0 | 63.8 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 64.7 | 64.7 | 64.5 | 64.7 | 64.8 | 64.9 |
| | MAIZE | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 1 128.2 | 1 151.5 | 1 168.2 | 1 184.8 | 1 201.5 | 1 219.5 | 1 237.1 | 1 256.9 | 1 275.3 | 1 293.6 | 1 311.2 |
| | Area | Mha | 190.2 | 190.2 | 191.1 | 191.7 | 192.6 | 193.5 | 194.2 | 195.2 | 196.1 | 196.9 | 197.5 |
| | Yield | t/ha | 5.93 | 6.05 | 6.11 | 6.18 | 6.24 | 6.30 | 6.37 | 6.44 | 6.50 | 6.57 | 6.64 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 1 111.5 | 1 159.2 | 1 177.6 | 1 192.8 | 1 207.4 | 1 225.1 | 1 240.1 | 1 255.5 | 1 270.0 | 1 286.0 | 1 300.7 |
| | Feed use | Mt | 651.9 | 678.6 | 690.7 | 700.4 | 708.9 | 721.3 | 731.1 | 741.3 | 751.0 | 762.2 | 772.0 |
| | Food use | Mt | 133.9 | 138.7 | 141.0 | 143.5 | 146.0 | 148.5 | 151.0 | 153.5 | 156.1 | 158.7 | 161.3 |
| | Biofuel use | Mt | 178.5 | 181.6 | 183.0 | 184.0 | 185.3 | 186.3 | 187.4 | 188.0 | 188.7 | 189.2 | 189.7 |
| | Other use | Mt | 100.0 | 112.4 | 114.5 | 116.1 | 117.8 | 119.2 | 120.3 | 121.7 | 122.8 | 124.1 | 125.3 |
| | Exports | Mt | 160.1 | 169.1 | 171.7 | 173.8 | 176.5 | 179.2 | 182.1 | 185.0 | 187.9 | 190.8 | 193.6 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 374.9 | 339.5 | 319.1 | 300.0 | 283.1 | 266.4 | 252.3 | 242.7 | 237.0 | 233.5 | 233.0 |
| | Price 3 | USD/t | 158.5 | 160.6 | 164.5 | 165.8 | 169.0 | 171.9 | 175.3 | 178.3 | 181.6 | 184.2 | 186.0 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 520.5 | 528.9 | 536.3 | 541.4 | 545.6 | 549.9 | 554.0 | 558.5 | 563.0 | 567.0 | 570.8 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 461.1 | 468.4 | 475.2 | 478.9 | 482.0 | 486.5 | 489.4 | 492.6 | 495.8 | 498.7 | 501.3 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 57.9 | 58.3 | 59.3 | 60.5 | 61.8 | 62.8 | 64.3 | 65.4 | 66.7 | 67.8 | 69.0 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 84.7 | 78.9 | 80.7 | 82.6 | 84.4 | 85.1 | 85.4 | 85.9 | 86.4 | 87.0 | 87.5 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 607.6 | 622.6 | 631.8 | 643.4 | 655.9 | 669.6 | 683.1 | 698.4 | 712.4 | 726.6 | 740.4 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 650.4 | 690.7 | 702.3 | 713.9 | 725.4 | 738.6 | 750.7 | 762.9 | 774.2 | 787.4 | 799.5 |
| | Net trade | Mt | -46.8 | -47.3 | -48.3 | -49.5 | -50.7 | -51.7 | -53.2 | -54.4 | -55.6 | -56.8 | -58.0 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 290.3 | 260.6 | 238.4 | 217.4 | 198.6 | 181.3 | 166.9 | 156.8 | 150.6 | 146.5 | 145.5 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 487.4 | 494.1 | 500.2 | 504.4 | 507.5 | 510.9 | 513.9 | 517.3 | 520.7 | 523.7 | 526.3 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 485.3 | 494.1 | 501.7 | 505.6 | 508.7 | 513.4 | 516.4 | 519.7 | 523.1 | 526.1 | 528.8 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 0.6 | -2.8 | -3.6 | -3.2 | -2.9 | -3.0 | -2.8 | -2.9 | -2.9 | -2.9 | -2.9 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 83.9 | 77.8 | 79.9 | 81.9 | 83.6 | 84.2 | 84.5 | 84.9 | 85.4 | 85.9 | 86.3 |
| | OTHER COARSE GRAINS | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 292.1 | 299.1 | 301.0 | 304.1 | 306.8 | 309.3 | 312.5 | 315.5 | 318.7 | 321.9 | 325.0 |
| | Area | Mha | 154.2 | 156.1 | 155.6 | 155.9 | 155.9 | 156.0 | 156.3 | 156.6 | 156.8 | 157.1 | 157.3 |
| | Yield | t/ha | 1.89 | 1.92 | 1.93 | 1.95 | 1.97 | 1.98 | 2.00 | 2.01 | 2.03 | 2.05 | 2.07 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 290.8 | 293.0 | 298.2 | 300.8 | 304.0 | 306.9 | 310.2 | 313.4 | 316.4 | 319.7 | 322.9 |
| | Feed use | Mt | 161.7 | 162.4 | 164.8 | 165.9 | 167.2 | 168.7 | 170.1 | 171.6 | 172.8 | 174.3 | 175.6 |
| | Food use | Mt | 77.7 | 79.1 | 80.7 | 81.9 | 83.5 | 84.6 | 86.2 | 87.6 | 89.0 | 90.5 | 92.1 |
| | Biofuel use | Mt | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.3 |
| | Other use | Mt | 42.1 | 42.1 | 43.2 | 43.3 | 43.5 | 43.8 | 44.0 | 44.2 | 44.4 | 44.6 | 44.9 |
| | Exports | Mt | 43.1 | 40.5 | 41.1 | 41.6 | 42.3 | 42.8 | 43.6 | 44.2 | 44.8 | 45.4 | 46.1 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 53.7 | 57.5 | 58.7 | 60.4 | 61.7 | 62.5 | 63.2 | 63.7 | 64.4 | 65.0 | 65.5 |
| | Price 4 | USD/t | 189.9 | 189.2 | 188.3 | 190.3 | 192.5 | 197.6 | 201.3 | 205.6 | 210.1 | 213.7 | 216.1 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 180.0 | 182.1 | 182.7 | 183.8 | 184.7 | 185.1 | 186.0 | 186.8 | 187.7 | 188.6 | 189.4 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 150.1 | 149.4 | 151.7 | 151.7 | 152.3 | 152.7 | 153.2 | 153.6 | 153.8 | 154.2 | 154.6 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 31.6 | 29.0 | 30.1 | 30.7 | 31.6 | 31.9 | 32.6 | 33.1 | 33.6 | 34.2 | 34.8 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 28.7 | 31.0 | 31.9 | 33.3 | 34.1 | 34.6 | 34.9 | 35.0 | 35.3 | 35.5 | 35.5 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 112.0 | 117.0 | 118.2 | 120.4 | 122.2 | 124.2 | 126.4 | 128.6 | 130.9 | 133.3 | 135.6 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 140.7 | 143.6 | 146.5 | 149.1 | 151.7 | 154.2 | 157.0 | 159.7 | 162.6 | 165.4 | 168.3 |
| | Net trade | Mt | -27.9 | -27.4 | -28.5 | -29.2 | -30.0 | -30.3 | -31.0 | -31.5 | -32.0 | -32.6 | -33.2 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 25.0 | 26.5 | 26.7 | 27.2 | 27.6 | 27.9 | 28.3 | 28.6 | 29.1 | 29.5 | 30.0 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 145.9 | 149.7 | 150.0 | 150.6 | 151.0 | 151.1 | 151.5 | 151.9 | 152.3 | 152.8 | 153.2 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 128.8 | 128.1 | 129.9 | 130.3 | 130.5 | 130.7 | 130.9 | 131.3 | 131.4 | 131.7 | 132.0 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 20.2 | 18.9 | 19.4 | 19.5 | 20.0 | 19.9 | 20.3 | 20.5 | 20.8 | 21.1 | 21.4 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 20.3 | 20.9 | 21.6 | 22.4 | 23.0 | 23.5 | 23.8 | 23.9 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 23.9 |
| | RICE | ||||||||||||
| | World | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 513.4 | 526.9 | 532.1 | 537.9 | 543.8 | 549.1 | 554.8 | 560.7 | 566.6 | 572.4 | 578.2 |
| | Area | Mha | 165.8 | 167.5 | 167.3 | 167.1 | 167.1 | 166.9 | 166.8 | 166.8 | 166.7 | 166.6 | 166.5 |
| | Yield | t/ha | 3.10 | 3.15 | 3.18 | 3.22 | 3.26 | 3.29 | 3.33 | 3.36 | 3.40 | 3.44 | 3.47 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 510.5 | 524.1 | 530.8 | 537.0 | 543.3 | 548.9 | 554.6 | 560.3 | 566.1 | 571.8 | 577.6 |
| | Feed use | Mt | 17.8 | 17.0 | 17.5 | 17.7 | 17.9 | 18.0 | 18.1 | 18.3 | 18.5 | 18.7 | 18.9 |
| | Food use | Mt | 408.7 | 419.6 | 424.7 | 429.5 | 434.7 | 439.5 | 444.2 | 448.9 | 453.7 | 458.4 | 463.1 |
| | Exports | Mt | 47.3 | 49.9 | 51.4 | 52.2 | 53.1 | 54.1 | 55.1 | 56.2 | 57.3 | 58.4 | 59.6 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 171.7 | 178.9 | 180.2 | 181.0 | 181.6 | 181.7 | 182.0 | 182.5 | 183.0 | 183.6 | 184.1 |
| | Price 5 | USD/t | 422.7 | 436.4 | 431.5 | 433.7 | 434.8 | 441.3 | 448.5 | 454.5 | 460.5 | 465.7 | 470.3 |
| | Developed countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 17.9 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 18.2 | 18.4 | 18.4 | 18.5 | 18.6 | 18.7 | 18.8 | 18.9 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 20.0 | 20.2 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.5 | 20.6 | 20.6 | 20.6 |
| | Net trade | Mt | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 4.6 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.6 |
| | Developing countries | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 495.6 | 508.8 | 514.0 | 519.7 | 525.4 | 530.6 | 536.3 | 542.1 | 547.9 | 553.6 | 559.2 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 490.5 | 504.0 | 510.5 | 516.8 | 523.0 | 528.5 | 534.1 | 539.8 | 545.5 | 551.2 | 557.0 |
| | Net trade | Mt | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 167.1 | 174.9 | 176.5 | 177.6 | 178.2 | 178.5 | 178.8 | 179.2 | 179.7 | 180.1 | 180.5 |
| | OECD 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Production | Mt | 21.4 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.8 | 21.8 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 22.0 |
| | Consumption | Mt | 23.8 | 23.7 | 23.9 | 23.9 | 23.9 | 23.9 | 23.9 | 23.9 | 24.0 | 23.9 | 24.0 |
| | Net trade | Mt | -2.0 | -1.8 | -1.9 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -2.1 | -2.1 | -2.1 | -2.1 |
| | Closing stocks | Mt | 5.7 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions. Average 2016-18est: Data for 2018 are estimated. Prices are in nominal terms. | |||||||||||||
| Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
No.2 hard red winter wheat, ordinary protein, United States FOB Gulf Ports (June/May). | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU member countries. | |||||||||||||
No.2 yellow corn, United States FOB Gulf Ports (September/August). | |||||||||||||
Feed barley, Europe, FOB Rouen (July/June). | |||||||||||||
Milled 100%, grade b, nominal price quote, FOB Bangkok (January/December). | |||||||||||||
| Source: OECD/FAO (2019), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en | |||||||||||||