1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028

The Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets.

This year's Special Feature will focus on agricultural development in Latin America.

English Spanish, French

From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028 - © OECD 2019

‌C.1World cereal projections
C.1World cereal projections
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2016-18est
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
2028
WHEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
752.2
 
766.4
 
772.9
 
781.0
 
788.8
 
796.5
 
804.8
 
812.8
 
821.6
 
829.8
 
838.0
 
Area
Mha
219.0
 
220.5
 
220.2
 
220.2
 
220.2
 
220.2
 
220.4
 
220.5
 
220.8
 
220.9
 
221.0
 
Yield
t/ha
3.43
 
3.48
 
3.51
 
3.55
 
3.58
 
3.62
 
3.65
 
3.69
 
3.72
 
3.76
 
3.79
 
Consumption
Mt
741.1
 
751.6
 
764.7
 
776.0
 
787.1
 
795.1
 
802.1
 
810.1
 
818.4
 
826.7
 
834.8
 
Feed use
Mt
146.3
 
147.8
 
150.9
 
153.1
 
155.4
 
157.5
 
159.4
 
161.4
 
163.5
 
165.5
 
167.7
 
Food use
Mt
503.4
 
512.5
 
518.4
 
525.5
 
531.5
 
535.1
 
538.0
 
542.3
 
546.5
 
550.8
 
554.5
 
Biofuel use
Mt
12.3
 
12.6
 
12.8
 
13.1
 
13.4
 
13.7
 
14.0
 
14.5
 
14.9
 
15.3
 
15.7
 
Other use
Mt
79.1
 
78.7
 
82.6
 
84.3
 
86.8
 
88.8
 
90.7
 
92.0
 
93.5
 
95.1
 
96.9
 
Exports
Mt
176.6
 
181.4
 
185.2
 
187.3
 
189.9
 
191.9
 
193.9
 
196.7
 
199.2
 
201.7
 
204.0
 
Closing stocks
Mt
286.0
 
301.6
 
309.8
 
314.8
 
316.6
 
317.9
 
320.6
 
323.3
 
326.5
 
329.6
 
332.8
 
Price 1
USD/t
221.1
 
225.9
 
217.1
 
216.0
 
217.4
 
221.0
 
224.9
 
227.9
 
231.4
 
234.7
 
237.5
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
394.3
 
402.9
 
405.6
 
409.4
 
412.7
 
415.8
 
419.6
 
423.3
 
427.6
 
431.3
 
434.8
 
Consumption
Mt
273.6
 
271.3
 
273.3
 
275.3
 
277.7
 
279.6
 
281.0
 
282.7
 
284.6
 
286.3
 
288.1
 
Net trade
Mt
122.2
 
126.8
 
130.4
 
132.6
 
135.1
 
136.9
 
138.3
 
140.8
 
142.7
 
144.8
 
146.5
 
Closing stocks
Mt
79.8
 
77.1
 
79.1
 
80.6
 
80.4
 
79.7
 
80.0
 
79.9
 
80.2
 
80.4
 
80.6
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
357.9
 
363.6
 
367.3
 
371.5
 
376.2
 
380.7
 
385.1
 
389.5
 
394.0
 
398.5
 
403.2
 
Consumption
Mt
467.5
 
480.2
 
491.4
 
500.7
 
509.3
 
515.5
 
521.1
 
527.4
 
533.8
 
540.3
 
546.8
 
Net trade
Mt
-120.5
 
-126.8
 
-130.4
 
-132.6
 
-135.1
 
-136.9
 
-138.3
 
-140.8
 
-142.7
 
-144.8
 
-146.5
 
Closing stocks
Mt
206.2
 
224.5
 
230.7
 
234.2
 
236.2
 
238.2
 
240.6
 
243.4
 
246.2
 
249.2
 
252.2
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
282.3
 
291.6
 
292.8
 
294.8
 
296.3
 
297.8
 
299.9
 
301.8
 
304.4
 
306.4
 
308.3
 
Consumption
Mt
225.4
 
225.6
 
227.1
 
228.8
 
230.7
 
232.2
 
233.2
 
234.4
 
235.8
 
237.1
 
238.4
 
Net trade
Mt
57.9
 
63.7
 
64.0
 
64.7
 
65.6
 
65.9
 
66.8
 
67.7
 
68.4
 
69.2
 
69.7
 
Closing stocks
Mt
65.1
 
62.0
 
63.8
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
64.7
 
64.7
 
64.5
 
64.7
 
64.8
 
64.9
 
MAIZE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
1 128.2
 
1 151.5
 
1 168.2
 
1 184.8
 
1 201.5
 
1 219.5
 
1 237.1
 
1 256.9
 
1 275.3
 
1 293.6
 
1 311.2
 
Area
Mha
190.2
 
190.2
 
191.1
 
191.7
 
192.6
 
193.5
 
194.2
 
195.2
 
196.1
 
196.9
 
197.5
 
Yield
t/ha
5.93
 
6.05
 
6.11
 
6.18
 
6.24
 
6.30
 
6.37
 
6.44
 
6.50
 
6.57
 
6.64
 
Consumption
Mt
1 111.5
 
1 159.2
 
1 177.6
 
1 192.8
 
1 207.4
 
1 225.1
 
1 240.1
 
1 255.5
 
1 270.0
 
1 286.0
 
1 300.7
 
Feed use
Mt
651.9
 
678.6
 
690.7
 
700.4
 
708.9
 
721.3
 
731.1
 
741.3
 
751.0
 
762.2
 
772.0
 
Food use
Mt
133.9
 
138.7
 
141.0
 
143.5
 
146.0
 
148.5
 
151.0
 
153.5
 
156.1
 
158.7
 
161.3
 
Biofuel use
Mt
178.5
 
181.6
 
183.0
 
184.0
 
185.3
 
186.3
 
187.4
 
188.0
 
188.7
 
189.2
 
189.7
 
Other use
Mt
100.0
 
112.4
 
114.5
 
116.1
 
117.8
 
119.2
 
120.3
 
121.7
 
122.8
 
124.1
 
125.3
 
Exports
Mt
160.1
 
169.1
 
171.7
 
173.8
 
176.5
 
179.2
 
182.1
 
185.0
 
187.9
 
190.8
 
193.6
 
Closing stocks
Mt
374.9
 
339.5
 
319.1
 
300.0
 
283.1
 
266.4
 
252.3
 
242.7
 
237.0
 
233.5
 
233.0
 
Price 3
USD/t
158.5
 
160.6
 
164.5
 
165.8
 
169.0
 
171.9
 
175.3
 
178.3
 
181.6
 
184.2
 
186.0
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
520.5
 
528.9
 
536.3
 
541.4
 
545.6
 
549.9
 
554.0
 
558.5
 
563.0
 
567.0
 
570.8
 
Consumption
Mt
461.1
 
468.4
 
475.2
 
478.9
 
482.0
 
486.5
 
489.4
 
492.6
 
495.8
 
498.7
 
501.3
 
Net trade
Mt
57.9
 
58.3
 
59.3
 
60.5
 
61.8
 
62.8
 
64.3
 
65.4
 
66.7
 
67.8
 
69.0
 
Closing stocks
Mt
84.7
 
78.9
 
80.7
 
82.6
 
84.4
 
85.1
 
85.4
 
85.9
 
86.4
 
87.0
 
87.5
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
607.6
 
622.6
 
631.8
 
643.4
 
655.9
 
669.6
 
683.1
 
698.4
 
712.4
 
726.6
 
740.4
 
Consumption
Mt
650.4
 
690.7
 
702.3
 
713.9
 
725.4
 
738.6
 
750.7
 
762.9
 
774.2
 
787.4
 
799.5
 
Net trade
Mt
-46.8
 
-47.3
 
-48.3
 
-49.5
 
-50.7
 
-51.7
 
-53.2
 
-54.4
 
-55.6
 
-56.8
 
-58.0
 
Closing stocks
Mt
290.3
 
260.6
 
238.4
 
217.4
 
198.6
 
181.3
 
166.9
 
156.8
 
150.6
 
146.5
 
145.5
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
487.4
 
494.1
 
500.2
 
504.4
 
507.5
 
510.9
 
513.9
 
517.3
 
520.7
 
523.7
 
526.3
 
Consumption
Mt
485.3
 
494.1
 
501.7
 
505.6
 
508.7
 
513.4
 
516.4
 
519.7
 
523.1
 
526.1
 
528.8
 
Net trade
Mt
0.6
 
-2.8
 
-3.6
 
-3.2
 
-2.9
 
-3.0
 
-2.8
 
-2.9
 
-2.9
 
-2.9
 
-2.9
 
Closing stocks
Mt
83.9
 
77.8
 
79.9
 
81.9
 
83.6
 
84.2
 
84.5
 
84.9
 
85.4
 
85.9
 
86.3
 
OTHER COARSE GRAINS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
292.1
 
299.1
 
301.0
 
304.1
 
306.8
 
309.3
 
312.5
 
315.5
 
318.7
 
321.9
 
325.0
 
Area
Mha
154.2
 
156.1
 
155.6
 
155.9
 
155.9
 
156.0
 
156.3
 
156.6
 
156.8
 
157.1
 
157.3
 
Yield
t/ha
1.89
 
1.92
 
1.93
 
1.95
 
1.97
 
1.98
 
2.00
 
2.01
 
2.03
 
2.05
 
2.07
 
Consumption
Mt
290.8
 
293.0
 
298.2
 
300.8
 
304.0
 
306.9
 
310.2
 
313.4
 
316.4
 
319.7
 
322.9
 
Feed use
Mt
161.7
 
162.4
 
164.8
 
165.9
 
167.2
 
168.7
 
170.1
 
171.6
 
172.8
 
174.3
 
175.6
 
Food use
Mt
77.7
 
79.1
 
80.7
 
81.9
 
83.5
 
84.6
 
86.2
 
87.6
 
89.0
 
90.5
 
92.1
 
Biofuel use
Mt
9.4
 
9.5
 
9.6
 
9.6
 
9.8
 
9.9
 
10.0
 
10.1
 
10.2
 
10.2
 
10.3
 
Other use
Mt
42.1
 
42.1
 
43.2
 
43.3
 
43.5
 
43.8
 
44.0
 
44.2
 
44.4
 
44.6
 
44.9
 
Exports
Mt
43.1
 
40.5
 
41.1
 
41.6
 
42.3
 
42.8
 
43.6
 
44.2
 
44.8
 
45.4
 
46.1
 
Closing stocks
Mt
53.7
 
57.5
 
58.7
 
60.4
 
61.7
 
62.5
 
63.2
 
63.7
 
64.4
 
65.0
 
65.5
 
Price 4
USD/t
189.9
 
189.2
 
188.3
 
190.3
 
192.5
 
197.6
 
201.3
 
205.6
 
210.1
 
213.7
 
216.1
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
180.0
 
182.1
 
182.7
 
183.8
 
184.7
 
185.1
 
186.0
 
186.8
 
187.7
 
188.6
 
189.4
 
Consumption
Mt
150.1
 
149.4
 
151.7
 
151.7
 
152.3
 
152.7
 
153.2
 
153.6
 
153.8
 
154.2
 
154.6
 
Net trade
Mt
31.6
 
29.0
 
30.1
 
30.7
 
31.6
 
31.9
 
32.6
 
33.1
 
33.6
 
34.2
 
34.8
 
Closing stocks
Mt
28.7
 
31.0
 
31.9
 
33.3
 
34.1
 
34.6
 
34.9
 
35.0
 
35.3
 
35.5
 
35.5
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
112.0
 
117.0
 
118.2
 
120.4
 
122.2
 
124.2
 
126.4
 
128.6
 
130.9
 
133.3
 
135.6
 
Consumption
Mt
140.7
 
143.6
 
146.5
 
149.1
 
151.7
 
154.2
 
157.0
 
159.7
 
162.6
 
165.4
 
168.3
 
Net trade
Mt
-27.9
 
-27.4
 
-28.5
 
-29.2
 
-30.0
 
-30.3
 
-31.0
 
-31.5
 
-32.0
 
-32.6
 
-33.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
25.0
 
26.5
 
26.7
 
27.2
 
27.6
 
27.9
 
28.3
 
28.6
 
29.1
 
29.5
 
30.0
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
145.9
 
149.7
 
150.0
 
150.6
 
151.0
 
151.1
 
151.5
 
151.9
 
152.3
 
152.8
 
153.2
 
Consumption
Mt
128.8
 
128.1
 
129.9
 
130.3
 
130.5
 
130.7
 
130.9
 
131.3
 
131.4
 
131.7
 
132.0
 
Net trade
Mt
20.2
 
18.9
 
19.4
 
19.5
 
20.0
 
19.9
 
20.3
 
20.5
 
20.8
 
21.1
 
21.4
 
Closing stocks
Mt
20.3
 
20.9
 
21.6
 
22.4
 
23.0
 
23.5
 
23.8
 
23.9
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
23.9
 
RICE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
513.4
 
526.9
 
532.1
 
537.9
 
543.8
 
549.1
 
554.8
 
560.7
 
566.6
 
572.4
 
578.2
 
Area
Mha
165.8
 
167.5
 
167.3
 
167.1
 
167.1
 
166.9
 
166.8
 
166.8
 
166.7
 
166.6
 
166.5
 
Yield
t/ha
3.10
 
3.15
 
3.18
 
3.22
 
3.26
 
3.29
 
3.33
 
3.36
 
3.40
 
3.44
 
3.47
 
Consumption
Mt
510.5
 
524.1
 
530.8
 
537.0
 
543.3
 
548.9
 
554.6
 
560.3
 
566.1
 
571.8
 
577.6
 
Feed use
Mt
17.8
 
17.0
 
17.5
 
17.7
 
17.9
 
18.0
 
18.1
 
18.3
 
18.5
 
18.7
 
18.9
 
Food use
Mt
408.7
 
419.6
 
424.7
 
429.5
 
434.7
 
439.5
 
444.2
 
448.9
 
453.7
 
458.4
 
463.1
 
Exports
Mt
47.3
 
49.9
 
51.4
 
52.2
 
53.1
 
54.1
 
55.1
 
56.2
 
57.3
 
58.4
 
59.6
 
Closing stocks
Mt
171.7
 
178.9
 
180.2
 
181.0
 
181.6
 
181.7
 
182.0
 
182.5
 
183.0
 
183.6
 
184.1
 
Price 5
USD/t
422.7
 
436.4
 
431.5
 
433.7
 
434.8
 
441.3
 
448.5
 
454.5
 
460.5
 
465.7
 
470.3
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
17.9
 
18.1
 
18.1
 
18.2
 
18.4
 
18.4
 
18.5
 
18.6
 
18.7
 
18.8
 
18.9
 
Consumption
Mt
20.0
 
20.2
 
20.3
 
20.3
 
20.3
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.5
 
20.6
 
20.6
 
20.6
 
Net trade
Mt
-1.8
 
-1.8
 
-1.8
 
-1.9
 
-1.9
 
-1.9
 
-1.9
 
-1.9
 
-1.9
 
-1.9
 
-1.9
 
Closing stocks
Mt
4.6
 
4.1
 
3.7
 
3.5
 
3.4
 
3.3
 
3.2
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.4
 
3.6
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
495.6
 
508.8
 
514.0
 
519.7
 
525.4
 
530.6
 
536.3
 
542.1
 
547.9
 
553.6
 
559.2
 
Consumption
Mt
490.5
 
504.0
 
510.5
 
516.8
 
523.0
 
528.5
 
534.1
 
539.8
 
545.5
 
551.2
 
557.0
 
Net trade
Mt
1.3
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
Closing stocks
Mt
167.1
 
174.9
 
176.5
 
177.6
 
178.2
 
178.5
 
178.8
 
179.2
 
179.7
 
180.1
 
180.5
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
21.4
 
21.6
 
21.6
 
21.7
 
21.8
 
21.8
 
21.9
 
21.9
 
21.9
 
22.0
 
22.0
 
Consumption
Mt
23.8
 
23.7
 
23.9
 
23.9
 
23.9
 
23.9
 
23.9
 
23.9
 
24.0
 
23.9
 
24.0
 
Net trade
Mt
-2.0
 
-1.8
 
-1.9
 
-2.0
 
-2.0
 
-2.0
 
-2.0
 
-2.1
 
-2.1
 
-2.1
 
-2.1
 
Closing stocks
Mt
5.7
 
5.1
 
4.7
 
4.5
 
4.4
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.5
 
4.6
 
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions. Average 2016-18est: Data for 2018 are estimated. Prices are in nominal terms.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
No.2 hard red winter wheat, ordinary protein, United States FOB Gulf Ports (June/May).
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU member countries.
3.
No.2 yellow corn, United States FOB Gulf Ports (September/August).
4.
Feed barley, Europe, FOB Rouen (July/June).
5.
Milled 100%, grade b, nominal price quote, FOB Bangkok (January/December).
Source: OECD/FAO (2019), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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