OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers
NB. No. 1 to No. 58 were released under the previous series title OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Working Papers.
- ISSN: 18156797 (online)
- https://doi.org/10.1787/18156797
The Impact of the African Swine Fever outbreak in China on global agricultural markets
In China, the outbreak of the African Swine Fever is expected to result in a 27% drop in the production of pigmeat, the country’s most consumed meat product. Using the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model, this paper examines the impact of this production shortfall on global markets for livestock products and animal feed over the short and the medium term. In particular, it compares outcomes if the changes induced by the ASF outbreak in China are temporary with outcomes that could result if current changes lead to a restructuring of Chinese protein demand.
Keywords: Feed market, Pigmeat, Agricultural trade, Pandemic
JEL:
Q11: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Agriculture / Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices;
F17: International Economics / Trade / Trade: Forecasting and Simulation;
C61: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling / Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis;
Q17: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Agriculture / Agriculture in International Trade
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