OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 provides a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets.
This Outlook edition reveals important trends. Emerging economies will be pivotal in shaping the global agricultural landscape, with India expected to overtake China as the leading player. Yet calorie intake growth in low-income countries is projected to be only 4%. Agriculture's global greenhouse gas intensity is projected to decline, although direct emissions from agriculture will likely increase by 5%. If food loss and waste could be halved, however, this would have the potential to reduce both global agricultural GHG emissions by 4% and the number of undernourished people by 153 million by 2030.
Well-functioning international agricultural commodity markets will remain vital for global food security and rural livelihoods. Expected developments should keep real international reference prices on a slightly declining trend over the next ten years, although environmental, social, geopolitical, and economic factors could significantly alter these projections.
More information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org.
Foreword
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 is a collaborative effort by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Serving as a reference for forward-looking policy planning, the Outlook draws upon the expertise of both organisations, incorporating inputs from collaborating member countries and commodity organisations. It provides a comprehensive assessment of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets over the next ten years. The Outlook uses the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model to ensure consistency and global equilibrium across all markets. Detailed methodology and model documentation are available online at www.agri-outlook.org.
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