OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 provides a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national, regional, and global levels, and serves as a reference for forward-looking policy analysis and planning. Projections suggest that, following a business-as-usual path, SDG 2 on Zero Hunger would not be achieved by 2030 and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture would continue to increase. To achieve the Zero Hunger target while reducing direct GHG by 6%, overall agricultural productivity would need to increase by 28% over the next decade. Comprehensive action to boost agricultural investment and innovation, and to enable technology transfer are urgently required in order to put the agricultural sector on the necessary sustainable growth trajectory. Additional efforts to reduce food loss and waste, and to limit excess calorie and protein intakes would also be necessary. This report is a collaborative effort between the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, prepared with inputs from Member countries and international commodity organisations. It highlights fundamental economic and social trends driving the global agri-food sector, assuming no major changes to weather conditions or policies.
More information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org.
Agricultural and food markets: Trends and prospects
Following a description of the macroeconomic and policy assumptions underlying the projections, including those related to Russia’s war against Ukraine, this chapter presents the main findings of the Agricultural Outlook. It highlights key projections for consumption, production, trade, and prices for 25 agricultural products for the period 2022 to 2031. Agricultural demand growth is expected to slow down over the next decade and to be mainly driven by population growth. Varying income levels and income growth projections, as well as cultural preferences around diets and nutrition, will underlie continuing differences in consumption patterns between countries. The slower demand growth for agricultural commodities is projected to be matched by efficiency gains in crop and livestock production, which will keep real agricultural prices relatively flat. International trade will remain essential for food security in food-importing countries, and for rural livelihoods in food-exporting countries. At the end of the chapter, a scenario assesses the level of productivity growth required to achieve the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG-2) on Zero Hunger as well as a considerable reduction in agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Over the next decade, weather variability, animal and plant diseases, changing input prices, macro-economic developments and other uncertainties will result in variations around the projections.
- Click to access:
-
Click to download PDF - 1.48MBPDF