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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028

The Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets.

This year's Special Feature will focus on agricultural development in Latin America.

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Overview

This chapter provides an overview of the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for global and national agricultural markets. The projections cover consumption, production, stocks, trade, and prices for 25 agricultural products for the period 2019 to 2028. The weakening of demand growth is expected to persist over the coming decade. Population will be the main driver of consumption growth for most commodities, even though the rate of population growth is forecast to decline. Per capita consumption of many commodities is expected to be flat at a global level. Consequently, the slower growing demand for agricultural commodities is projected to be matched by efficiency gains in production which will keep real agricultural prices relatively flat. International trade will remain essential for food security in food-importing countries. World agricultural markets face a range of new uncertainties that add to the traditionally high risks facing agriculture. These include the spread of diseases such as African Swine Fever and the heightened uncertainty with respect to future trading agreements between several important players on world agricultural markets.

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