1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.12.2 - World trade projections, exports

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.12.2World trade projections, exports
A.12.2World trade projections, exports
  
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
Wheat
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
100 275
 
99 833
 
102 185
 
103 717
 
104 552
 
105 629
 
106 280
 
106 933
 
107 632
 
108 387
 
109 203
 
Developing countries
kt
22 547
 
21 597
 
21 763
 
22 288
 
22 594
 
22 858
 
23 158
 
23 479
 
23 789
 
24 104
 
24 450
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
107
 
83
 
80
 
79
 
77
 
76
 
74
 
73
 
72
 
70
 
69
 
Maize
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
58 088
 
51 076
 
52 344
 
54 542
 
55 716
 
55 553
 
56 093
 
57 198
 
57 936
 
58 758
 
58 946
 
Developing countries
kt
54 614
 
58 327
 
59 184
 
59 580
 
60 882
 
62 175
 
63 061
 
63 555
 
64 350
 
65 718
 
67 590
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
2 756
 
2 741
 
2 818
 
2 851
 
2 956
 
3 028
 
3 084
 
3 145
 
3 198
 
3 270
 
3 360
 
Other coarse grains
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
29 448
 
26 281
 
26 189
 
26 787
 
27 252
 
27 467
 
27 849
 
28 307
 
28 690
 
29 058
 
29 337
 
Developing countries
kt
6 276
 
5 044
 
5 320
 
5 743
 
6 298
 
6 856
 
7 090
 
7 280
 
7 521
 
7 838
 
8 187
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
801
 
909
 
854
 
800
 
745
 
694
 
642
 
593
 
546
 
502
 
463
 
Rice
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
4 139
 
4 371
 
4 551
 
4 534
 
4 584
 
4 643
 
4 759
 
4 822
 
4 890
 
4 960
 
4 972
 
Developing countries
kt
40 877
 
40 203
 
40 911
 
41 940
 
42 909
 
43 882
 
44 837
 
45 901
 
46 996
 
48 103
 
49 277
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
4 111
 
5 202
 
5 161
 
5 292
 
5 310
 
5 310
 
5 352
 
5 443
 
5 556
 
5 665
 
5 771
 
Soybean
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
60 580
 
66 262
 
66 070
 
66 496
 
67 781
 
68 262
 
68 866
 
69 676
 
70 135
 
70 591
 
71 116
 
Developing countries
kt
83 011
 
85 679
 
87 902
 
90 084
 
91 474
 
92 924
 
94 085
 
94 846
 
96 310
 
97 571
 
98 944
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
13
 
12
 
11
 
11
 
11
 
11
 
11
 
10
 
10
 
10
 
10
 
Other oilseeds
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
14 764
 
15 974
 
16 097
 
16 221
 
16 354
 
16 428
 
16 505
 
16 581
 
16 662
 
16 737
 
16 854
 
Developing countries
kt
2 845
 
2 594
 
2 592
 
2 629
 
2 674
 
2 690
 
2 703
 
2 705
 
2 717
 
2 731
 
2 750
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
85
 
115
 
104
 
105
 
103
 
101
 
98
 
96
 
95
 
92
 
91
 
Protein Meals
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
17 156
 
18 095
 
18 004
 
18 182
 
18 035
 
18 045
 
18 553
 
18 840
 
19 412
 
19 940
 
20 407
 
Developing countries
kt
64 075
 
65 423
 
66 296
 
66 683
 
67 797
 
68 982
 
69 563
 
70 747
 
71 546
 
72 328
 
72 962
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
219
 
192
 
171
 
162
 
145
 
133
 
122
 
113
 
106
 
98
 
93
 
Vegetable Oils
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
7 296
 
7 631
 
7 806
 
7 899
 
7 804
 
7 929
 
8 097
 
8 259
 
8 398
 
8 592
 
8 757
 
Developing countries
kt
61 941
 
65 982
 
67 666
 
69 147
 
70 550
 
71 626
 
72 662
 
73 749
 
74 658
 
75 601
 
76 465
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
409
 
409
 
389
 
372
 
357
 
343
 
331
 
320
 
309
 
298
 
287
 
Sugar
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
7 684
 
8 837
 
8 948
 
9 083
 
8 948
 
9 008
 
8 950
 
9 010
 
9 102
 
9 215
 
9 345
 
Developing countries
kt
53 210
 
49 834
 
50 467
 
51 120
 
52 580
 
53 179
 
53 950
 
54 682
 
55 399
 
56 255
 
57 125
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
2 603
 
1 555
 
1 802
 
1 756
 
1 668
 
1 606
 
1 546
 
1 469
 
1 404
 
1 352
 
1 300
 
Beef 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
4 286
 
4 442
 
4 394
 
4 428
 
4 511
 
4 598
 
4 667
 
4 705
 
4 748
 
4 782
 
4 810
 
Developing countries
kt
4 730
 
5 157
 
5 318
 
5 430
 
5 503
 
5 581
 
5 672
 
5 788
 
5 876
 
5 973
 
6 059
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
2
 
2
 
2
 
2
 
1
 
1
 
1
 
1
 
1
 
1
 
1
 
Pigmeat 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
6 572
 
6 671
 
6 584
 
6 598
 
6 653
 
6 706
 
6 756
 
6 838
 
6 928
 
7 029
 
7 096
 
Developing countries
kt
1 153
 
1 187
 
1 209
 
1 236
 
1 241
 
1 235
 
1 220
 
1 211
 
1 225
 
1 235
 
1 241
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
1
 
1
 
1
 
1
 
1
 
1
 
1
 
1
 
1
 
1
 
1
 
Poultry meat
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
5 515
 
5 755
 
6 055
 
6 164
 
6 244
 
6 347
 
6 463
 
6 584
 
6 728
 
6 865
 
7 006
 
Developing countries
kt
6 905
 
7 225
 
7 419
 
7 607
 
7 735
 
7 873
 
8 022
 
8 177
 
8 315
 
8 458
 
8 604
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
19
 
18
 
18
 
17
 
17
 
17
 
16
 
16
 
16
 
16
 
15
 
Sheep meat 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
969
 
977
 
998
 
1 020
 
1 053
 
1 084
 
1 090
 
1 098
 
1 106
 
1 113
 
1 121
 
Developing countries
kt
84
 
80
 
76
 
73
 
67
 
63
 
64
 
65
 
66
 
67
 
69
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
Butter
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
738
 
733
 
745
 
765
 
780
 
786
 
803
 
820
 
836
 
847
 
864
 
Developing countries
kt
84
 
82
 
83
 
83
 
84
 
87
 
88
 
90
 
91
 
93
 
95
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
2
 
3
 
3
 
3
 
2
 
2
 
2
 
2
 
2
 
2
 
2
 
Cheese
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
1 749
 
1 866
 
1 915
 
1 951
 
1 998
 
2 042
 
2 089
 
2 139
 
2 193
 
2 245
 
2 300
 
Developing countries
kt
486
 
530
 
520
 
521
 
513
 
510
 
506
 
503
 
498
 
494
 
490
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
Whole milk powder
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
1 834
 
1 805
 
1 820
 
1 836
 
1 861
 
1 879
 
1 905
 
1 933
 
1 959
 
1 983
 
2 003
 
Developing countries
kt
605
 
585
 
593
 
601
 
608
 
617
 
623
 
628
 
635
 
637
 
648
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
7
 
6
 
6
 
6
 
6
 
6
 
5
 
5
 
5
 
5
 
5
 
Skim milk powder
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
1 992
 
2 168
 
2 176
 
2 209
 
2 251
 
2 283
 
2 324
 
2 369
 
2 415
 
2 454
 
2 497
 
Developing countries
kt
237
 
286
 
294
 
293
 
292
 
293
 
293
 
292
 
292
 
292
 
292
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
3
 
3
 
3
 
3
 
3
 
3
 
3
 
3
 
2
 
2
 
2
 
Fish 3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
11 482
 
11 799
 
12 162
 
12 533
 
12 792
 
12 966
 
13 288
 
13 470
 
13 811
 
13 894
 
14 316
 
Developing countries
kt
25 723
 
25 822
 
25 883
 
26 173
 
26 427
 
27 338
 
27 512
 
28 243
 
28 454
 
29 126
 
29 502
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
980
 
935
 
959
 
943
 
937
 
897
 
877
 
857
 
842
 
823
 
812
 
Fishmeal 4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
788
 
892
 
891
 
900
 
994
 
911
 
918
 
928
 
965
 
1 020
 
973
 
Developing countries
kt
1 889
 
1 766
 
1 793
 
1 846
 
1 810
 
1 862
 
1 836
 
1 901
 
1 930
 
1 800
 
1 932
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
38
 
32
 
35
 
38
 
43
 
45
 
48
 
50
 
53
 
57
 
58
 
Fish oil 4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
380
 
360
 
371
 
377
 
393
 
374
 
382
 
384
 
390
 
404
 
394
 
Developing countries
kt
390
 
352
 
365
 
371
 
400
 
358
 
367
 
391
 
398
 
415
 
389
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
5
 
5
 
5
 
5
 
5
 
5
 
6
 
6
 
6
 
6
 
6
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
5 366
 
5 117
 
5 184
 
5 288
 
5 175
 
5 104
 
5 057
 
4 973
 
4 944
 
4 943
 
4 943
 
Developing countries
kt
3 357
 
3 688
 
3 730
 
3 789
 
3 871
 
3 991
 
4 114
 
4 232
 
4 203
 
4 164
 
4 100
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
7
 
20
 
20
 
20
 
20
 
20
 
20
 
20
 
20
 
20
 
20
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
1 240
 
1 140
 
1 232
 
1 260
 
1 236
 
1 236
 
1 236
 
1 235
 
1 235
 
1 232
 
1 224
 
Developing countries
kt
2 383
 
3 000
 
2 655
 
2 212
 
2 117
 
2 077
 
2 028
 
1 977
 
1 976
 
1 931
 
1 944
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
Cotton
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
3 874
 
4 263
 
4 345
 
4 434
 
4 513
 
4 594
 
4 628
 
4 665
 
4 705
 
4 758
 
4 817
 
Developing countries
kt
3 342
 
3 409
 
3 452
 
3 496
 
3 560
 
3 633
 
3 710
 
3 780
 
3 852
 
3 924
 
3 996
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
888
 
1 080
 
1 103
 
1 126
 
1 145
 
1 168
 
1 197
 
1 228
 
1 261
 
1 293
 
1 323
 
Roots and tubers
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
OECD 1
kt
1 313
 
1 221
 
1 218
 
1 287
 
1 311
 
1 339
 
1 359
 
1 391
 
1 425
 
1 469
 
1 503
 
Developing countries
kt
10 422
 
10 797
 
11 032
 
11 111
 
11 229
 
11 375
 
11 539
 
11 687
 
11 841
 
11 968
 
12 128
 
Least Developed Countries
kt
121
 
119
 
113
 
112
 
116
 
117
 
117
 
114
 
113
 
111
 
109
 
Note: Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
2.
Excludes trade of live animals.
3.
Data are in live weight equivalent and refer to trade of food fish i.e. for human consumption.
4.
Data are in product weight.
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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