OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.
World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018
A.3 | World sugar projections | ||||||||||||
A.3 | World sugar projections | ||||||||||||
Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | | Average 2015-17est | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| WORLD | ||||||||||||
| SUGARBEET | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 272.6 | 291.5 | 292.9 | 289.9 | 289.0 | 289.7 | 290.1 | 291.0 | 292.3 | 293.6 | 295.0 |
| Area | Mha | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Yield | t/ha | 59.51 | 60.00 | 60.50 | 60.63 | 60.91 | 61.20 | 61.47 | 61.69 | 61.97 | 62.23 | 62.52 |
| Biofuel use | Mt | 13.8 | 15.2 | 15.1 | 14.9 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 |
| SUGARCANE | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 1 873.7 | 1 919.1 | 1 943.3 | 1 957.5 | 1 990.7 | 2 012.1 | 2 034.4 | 2 055.3 | 2 073.7 | 2 092.4 | 2 111.4 |
| Area | Mha | 27.3 | 27.8 | 28.0 | 28.1 | 28.3 | 28.5 | 28.6 | 28.8 | 28.9 | 29.0 | 29.2 |
| Yield | t/ha | 68.75 | 68.96 | 69.45 | 69.58 | 70.37 | 70.68 | 71.05 | 71.42 | 71.74 | 72.09 | 72.42 |
| Biofuel use | Mt | 348.6 | 353.8 | 363.5 | 369.7 | 376.2 | 382.3 | 389.0 | 395.5 | 400.7 | 405.6 | 410.4 |
| SUGAR | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt tq | 170.7 | 178.6 | 182.1 | 184.8 | 188.6 | 191.2 | 193.8 | 196.5 | 199.1 | 201.9 | 204.7 |
| Consumption | Mt tq | 167.1 | 173.4 | 176.0 | 178.7 | 181.4 | 184.1 | 186.9 | 189.6 | 192.4 | 195.1 | 197.9 |
| Closing stocks | Mt tq | 78.9 | 78.2 | 78.3 | 78.5 | 79.6 | 80.7 | 81.7 | 82.6 | 83.4 | 84.2 | 85.1 |
| Price, raw sugar 1 | USD/t | 359.7 | 346.9 | 352.7 | 357.4 | 362.9 | 367.8 | 372.6 | 377.7 | 383.2 | 388.1 | 392.3 |
| Price, white sugar 2 | USD/t | 442.7 | 417.3 | 434.0 | 437.8 | 443.0 | 448.1 | 452.7 | 457.3 | 462.4 | 467.3 | 471.7 |
| Price, HFCS 3 | USD/t | 613.8 | 503.7 | 519.5 | 526.8 | 538.4 | 546.5 | 551.8 | 555.2 | 560.6 | 566.2 | 572.1 |
| DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | ||||||||||||
| SUGARBEET | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 226.2 | 243.2 | 243.7 | 240.2 | 238.4 | 238.4 | 238.1 | 238.3 | 238.8 | 239.4 | 240.0 |
| SUGARCANE | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 81.7 | 83.5 | 85.2 | 86.3 | 87.0 | 87.5 | 87.9 | 88.6 | 89.3 | 89.6 | 90.2 |
| SUGAR | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt tq | 41.0 | 45.1 | 45.3 | 45.6 | 45.6 | 45.7 | 45.8 | 46.0 | 46.3 | 46.5 | 46.7 |
| Consumption | Mt tq | 46.3 | 46.8 | 47.0 | 47.1 | 47.3 | 47.4 | 47.6 | 47.7 | 47.9 | 48.1 | 48.2 |
| Closing stocks | Mt tq | 12.2 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 12.9 |
| HFCS | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt dw | 9.4 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 11.0 |
| Consumption | Mt dw | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.3 |
| DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | ||||||||||||
| SUGARBEET | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 46.4 | 48.3 | 49.2 | 49.7 | 50.5 | 51.3 | 52.0 | 52.8 | 53.5 | 54.2 | 55.0 |
| SUGARCANE | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 1 791.9 | 1 835.6 | 1 858.1 | 1 871.2 | 1 903.7 | 1 924.6 | 1 946.4 | 1 966.7 | 1 984.4 | 2 002.8 | 2 021.2 |
| SUGAR | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt tq | 129.8 | 133.5 | 136.8 | 139.3 | 143.0 | 145.4 | 148.0 | 150.5 | 152.9 | 155.4 | 158.0 |
| Consumption | Mt tq | 120.8 | 126.5 | 129.0 | 131.6 | 134.1 | 136.7 | 139.3 | 141.9 | 144.5 | 147.1 | 149.7 |
| Closing stocks | Mt tq | 66.7 | 65.7 | 65.8 | 66.0 | 67.1 | 68.1 | 69.0 | 69.9 | 70.6 | 71.3 | 72.2 |
| HFCS | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt dw | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Consumption | Mt dw | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| OECD 4 | ||||||||||||
| SUGARBEET | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 171.7 | 184.6 | 185.1 | 181.5 | 179.0 | 178.2 | 177.2 | 176.5 | 176.2 | 175.9 | 175.8 |
| SUGARCANE | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt | 121.9 | 124.1 | 126.5 | 128.2 | 129.8 | 131.0 | 131.6 | 132.6 | 133.6 | 134.5 | 135.7 |
| SUGAR | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt tq | 39.2 | 42.8 | 43.0 | 43.3 | 43.3 | 43.4 | 43.4 | 43.5 | 43.6 | 43.8 | 44.0 |
| Consumption | Mt tq | 43.7 | 44.2 | 44.4 | 44.6 | 44.8 | 45.0 | 45.1 | 45.3 | 45.5 | 45.7 | 45.9 |
| Closing stocks | Mt tq | 10.8 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| HFCS | ||||||||||||
| Production | Mt dw | 10.7 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 11.4 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.1 |
| Consumption | Mt dw | 10.2 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions. Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated. HFCS: High fructose corn syrup. | |||||||||||||
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
Raw sugar world price, ICE contract No11 nearby (October/September). | |||||||||||||
Refined sugar price, White Sugar Futures Contract No. 407, Euronext market, Liffe, London, Europe (October/September). | |||||||||||||
United States wholesale list price HFCS-55, dry weight (October/September). | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |