1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.3World sugar projections
A.3World sugar projections
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
WORLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SUGARBEET
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
272.6
 
291.5
 
292.9
 
289.9
 
289.0
 
289.7
 
290.1
 
291.0
 
292.3
 
293.6
 
295.0
 
Area
Mha
4.6
 
4.9
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.7
 
4.7
 
4.7
 
4.7
 
4.7
 
4.7
 
4.7
 
Yield
t/ha
59.51
 
60.00
 
60.50
 
60.63
 
60.91
 
61.20
 
61.47
 
61.69
 
61.97
 
62.23
 
62.52
 
Biofuel use
Mt
13.8
 
15.2
 
15.1
 
14.9
 
14.7
 
14.7
 
14.8
 
14.8
 
14.8
 
14.8
 
14.8
 
SUGARCANE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
1 873.7
 
1 919.1
 
1 943.3
 
1 957.5
 
1 990.7
 
2 012.1
 
2 034.4
 
2 055.3
 
2 073.7
 
2 092.4
 
2 111.4
 
Area
Mha
27.3
 
27.8
 
28.0
 
28.1
 
28.3
 
28.5
 
28.6
 
28.8
 
28.9
 
29.0
 
29.2
 
Yield
t/ha
68.75
 
68.96
 
69.45
 
69.58
 
70.37
 
70.68
 
71.05
 
71.42
 
71.74
 
72.09
 
72.42
 
Biofuel use
Mt
348.6
 
353.8
 
363.5
 
369.7
 
376.2
 
382.3
 
389.0
 
395.5
 
400.7
 
405.6
 
410.4
 
SUGAR
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt tq
170.7
 
178.6
 
182.1
 
184.8
 
188.6
 
191.2
 
193.8
 
196.5
 
199.1
 
201.9
 
204.7
 
Consumption
Mt tq
167.1
 
173.4
 
176.0
 
178.7
 
181.4
 
184.1
 
186.9
 
189.6
 
192.4
 
195.1
 
197.9
 
Closing stocks
Mt tq
78.9
 
78.2
 
78.3
 
78.5
 
79.6
 
80.7
 
81.7
 
82.6
 
83.4
 
84.2
 
85.1
 
Price, raw sugar 1
USD/t
359.7
 
346.9
 
352.7
 
357.4
 
362.9
 
367.8
 
372.6
 
377.7
 
383.2
 
388.1
 
392.3
 
Price, white sugar 2
USD/t
442.7
 
417.3
 
434.0
 
437.8
 
443.0
 
448.1
 
452.7
 
457.3
 
462.4
 
467.3
 
471.7
 
Price, HFCS 3
USD/t
613.8
 
503.7
 
519.5
 
526.8
 
538.4
 
546.5
 
551.8
 
555.2
 
560.6
 
566.2
 
572.1
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SUGARBEET
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
226.2
 
243.2
 
243.7
 
240.2
 
238.4
 
238.4
 
238.1
 
238.3
 
238.8
 
239.4
 
240.0
 
SUGARCANE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
81.7
 
83.5
 
85.2
 
86.3
 
87.0
 
87.5
 
87.9
 
88.6
 
89.3
 
89.6
 
90.2
 
SUGAR
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt tq
41.0
 
45.1
 
45.3
 
45.6
 
45.6
 
45.7
 
45.8
 
46.0
 
46.3
 
46.5
 
46.7
 
Consumption
Mt tq
46.3
 
46.8
 
47.0
 
47.1
 
47.3
 
47.4
 
47.6
 
47.7
 
47.9
 
48.1
 
48.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt tq
12.2
 
12.5
 
12.5
 
12.4
 
12.5
 
12.6
 
12.7
 
12.7
 
12.8
 
12.9
 
12.9
 
HFCS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt dw
9.4
 
9.7
 
10.0
 
10.3
 
10.4
 
10.5
 
10.6
 
10.7
 
10.8
 
10.9
 
11.0
 
Consumption
Mt dw
8.1
 
8.3
 
8.5
 
8.8
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.1
 
9.2
 
9.2
 
9.3
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SUGARBEET
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
46.4
 
48.3
 
49.2
 
49.7
 
50.5
 
51.3
 
52.0
 
52.8
 
53.5
 
54.2
 
55.0
 
SUGARCANE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
1 791.9
 
1 835.6
 
1 858.1
 
1 871.2
 
1 903.7
 
1 924.6
 
1 946.4
 
1 966.7
 
1 984.4
 
2 002.8
 
2 021.2
 
SUGAR
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt tq
129.8
 
133.5
 
136.8
 
139.3
 
143.0
 
145.4
 
148.0
 
150.5
 
152.9
 
155.4
 
158.0
 
Consumption
Mt tq
120.8
 
126.5
 
129.0
 
131.6
 
134.1
 
136.7
 
139.3
 
141.9
 
144.5
 
147.1
 
149.7
 
Closing stocks
Mt tq
66.7
 
65.7
 
65.8
 
66.0
 
67.1
 
68.1
 
69.0
 
69.9
 
70.6
 
71.3
 
72.2
 
HFCS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt dw
4.4
 
4.7
 
4.7
 
4.7
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.9
 
4.9
 
4.9
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
Consumption
Mt dw
5.1
 
5.4
 
5.4
 
5.5
 
5.6
 
5.7
 
5.7
 
5.8
 
5.9
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
OECD 4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SUGARBEET
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
171.7
 
184.6
 
185.1
 
181.5
 
179.0
 
178.2
 
177.2
 
176.5
 
176.2
 
175.9
 
175.8
 
SUGARCANE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
121.9
 
124.1
 
126.5
 
128.2
 
129.8
 
131.0
 
131.6
 
132.6
 
133.6
 
134.5
 
135.7
 
SUGAR
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt tq
39.2
 
42.8
 
43.0
 
43.3
 
43.3
 
43.4
 
43.4
 
43.5
 
43.6
 
43.8
 
44.0
 
Consumption
Mt tq
43.7
 
44.2
 
44.4
 
44.6
 
44.8
 
45.0
 
45.1
 
45.3
 
45.5
 
45.7
 
45.9
 
Closing stocks
Mt tq
10.8
 
10.8
 
10.9
 
11.0
 
11.1
 
11.2
 
11.2
 
11.3
 
11.4
 
11.5
 
11.5
 
HFCS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt dw
10.7
 
10.9
 
11.2
 
11.4
 
11.6
 
11.7
 
11.8
 
11.9
 
12.0
 
12.0
 
12.1
 
Consumption
Mt dw
10.2
 
10.4
 
10.6
 
10.9
 
11.1
 
11.1
 
11.2
 
11.3
 
11.4
 
11.5
 
11.5
 
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
HFCS: High fructose corn syrup.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Raw sugar world price, ICE contract No11 nearby (October/September).
2.
Refined sugar price, White Sugar Futures Contract No. 407, Euronext market, Liffe, London, Europe (October/September).
3.
United States wholesale list price HFCS-55, dry weight (October/September).
4.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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