1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

English Italian, Spanish, Chinese, French

From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.11World prices
A.11World prices
  Nominal price
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
CEREALS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat 1
USD/t
206.6
 
209.1
 
213.8
 
219.1
 
222.2
 
223.2
 
223.6
 
223.3
 
224.7
 
226.8
 
229.1
 
Maize 2
USD/t
155.9
 
158.7
 
163.2
 
167.4
 
172.6
 
174.6
 
174.0
 
172.4
 
172.2
 
172.4
 
173.0
 
Other coarse grains 3
USD/t
167.1
 
163.9
 
169.8
 
173.1
 
176.0
 
179.3
 
181.0
 
182.3
 
184.4
 
186.7
 
189.4
 
Rice 4
USD/t
404.7
 
412.3
 
410.6
 
409.9
 
414.1
 
419.6
 
423.9
 
425.8
 
427.2
 
428.5
 
431.0
 
Distiller's dry grains 5
USD/t
128.3
 
136.6
 
141.5
 
144.9
 
148.4
 
150.3
 
150.4
 
149.5
 
149.7
 
149.9
 
150.5
 
OILSEEDS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Soybean 6
USD/t
399.7
 
393.7
 
409.1
 
416.6
 
421.1
 
425.7
 
430.8
 
436.4
 
441.4
 
447.3
 
452.5
 
Other oilseeds 7
USD/t
424.0
 
439.2
 
452.6
 
456.3
 
463.3
 
465.2
 
469.0
 
472.3
 
478.4
 
481.5
 
487.7
 
Protein meals 8
USD/t
316.8
 
312.9
 
323.8
 
333.0
 
340.7
 
344.3
 
349.1
 
350.7
 
356.8
 
360.8
 
366.0
 
Vegetable oils 9
USD/t
783.5
 
828.6
 
829.0
 
829.9
 
834.3
 
842.9
 
852.5
 
862.8
 
874.6
 
883.0
 
892.0
 
SWEETENERS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Raw sugar 10
USD/t
359.7
 
346.9
 
352.7
 
357.4
 
362.9
 
367.8
 
372.6
 
377.7
 
383.2
 
388.1
 
392.3
 
Refined sugar 11
USD/t
442.7
 
417.3
 
434.0
 
437.8
 
443.0
 
448.1
 
452.7
 
457.3
 
462.4
 
467.3
 
471.7
 
HFCS 12
USD/t dw
613.8
 
503.7
 
519.5
 
526.8
 
538.4
 
546.5
 
551.8
 
555.2
 
560.6
 
566.2
 
572.1
 
Molasses 13
USD/t
152.6
 
157.8
 
169.5
 
177.8
 
182.6
 
182.9
 
181.6
 
179.8
 
179.5
 
180.0
 
181.3
 
MEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef and veal
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Price, EU 14
USD/t dwt
4 154.7
 
4 054.3
 
3 958.8
 
3 980.7
 
3 984.3
 
3 944.9
 
3 905.0
 
3 874.2
 
3 885.8
 
3 904.3
 
3 943.0
 
Price, United States 15
USD/t dwt
4 628.5
 
4 179.4
 
4 041.3
 
3 978.8
 
3 964.5
 
3 921.7
 
3 886.3
 
3 872.1
 
3 909.2
 
3 954.0
 
3 999.8
 
Price, Brazil 16
USD/t dwt
4 004.3
 
3 846.5
 
3 769.8
 
3 783.3
 
3 812.2
 
3 789.9
 
3 770.1
 
3 724.5
 
3 738.5
 
3 751.5
 
3 781.0
 
Pigmeat
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Price, EU 17
USD/t dwt
1 673.7
 
1 736.4
 
1 750.8
 
1 842.5
 
1 933.8
 
1 991.8
 
2 013.4
 
1 953.6
 
1 878.8
 
1 891.2
 
1 966.3
 
Price, United States 18
USD/t dwt
1 499.0
 
1 442.2
 
1 414.5
 
1 486.5
 
1 562.0
 
1 614.2
 
1 636.1
 
1 587.0
 
1 520.1
 
1 529.8
 
1 591.4
 
Price, Brazil 19
USD/t dwt
2 374.7
 
2 278.6
 
2 296.9
 
2 422.6
 
2 536.7
 
2 599.8
 
2 610.4
 
2 535.2
 
2 472.3
 
2 497.7
 
2 589.5
 
Poultry meat
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Price, EU 20
USD/t rtc
2 025.0
 
2 006.8
 
1 968.3
 
1 986.3
 
2 019.7
 
2 025.0
 
2 025.8
 
2 009.0
 
1 998.6
 
1 992.0
 
1 972.3
 
Price, United States 21
USD/t rtc
1 192.2
 
1 140.7
 
1 166.5
 
1 187.1
 
1 215.9
 
1 222.0
 
1 221.3
 
1 216.6
 
1 213.2
 
1 211.4
 
1 211.3
 
Price, Brazil 22
USD/t rtc
1 609.0
 
1 586.1
 
1 633.4
 
1 666.8
 
1 708.6
 
1 719.5
 
1 721.6
 
1 719.3
 
1 719.5
 
1 721.2
 
1 725.5
 
Sheep meat
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Price, New Zealand 23
USD/t dwt
3 735.0
 
3 870.5
 
3 791.3
 
3 840.5
 
3 776.0
 
3 749.9
 
3 829.2
 
3 848.7
 
3 869.9
 
3 897.7
 
3 915.6
 
FISH AND SEAFOOD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Product traded 24
USD/t
2 827.8
 
2 942.4
 
3 106.0
 
3 147.1
 
3 319.0
 
3 278.3
 
3 332.4
 
3 354.4
 
3 398.1
 
3 447.8
 
3 499.3
 
Aquaculture 25
USD/t
2 877.6
 
2 587.0
 
2 726.6
 
2 719.6
 
2 865.3
 
2 825.3
 
2 871.1
 
2 893.2
 
2 970.2
 
3 013.2
 
3 067.0
 
Capture 26
USD/t
1 557.4
 
1 603.1
 
1 664.6
 
1 684.3
 
1 748.1
 
1 734.6
 
1 755.2
 
1 764.4
 
1 781.5
 
1 803.1
 
1 818.9
 
Meal 27
USD/t
1 474.7
 
1 475.7
 
1 507.2
 
1 507.5
 
1 621.9
 
1 574.3
 
1 601.9
 
1 632.4
 
1 657.5
 
1 762.9
 
1 720.3
 
Oil 28
USD/t
1 654.7
 
1 645.4
 
1 798.5
 
1 833.6
 
1 979.9
 
1 825.7
 
1 857.7
 
1 864.7
 
1 888.1
 
2 137.7
 
1 919.2
 
DAIRY PRODUCTS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter 29
USD/t
3 932.5
 
4 514.0
 
4 228.3
 
4 274.0
 
4 300.2
 
4 373.2
 
4 370.5
 
4 385.8
 
4 413.4
 
4 449.6
 
4 468.6
 
Cheese 30
USD/t
3 424.5
 
3 699.4
 
3 787.1
 
3 877.7
 
3 920.4
 
3 985.0
 
4 023.9
 
4 063.7
 
4 115.3
 
4 167.5
 
4 217.7
 
Skim milk powder 31
USD/t
2 069.1
 
2 076.6
 
2 295.7
 
2 369.2
 
2 437.7
 
2 529.8
 
2 603.2
 
2 667.8
 
2 738.4
 
2 816.8
 
2 894.7
 
Whole milk powder 32
USD/t
2 664.0
 
2 960.6
 
3 127.9
 
3 220.1
 
3 290.3
 
3 377.6
 
3 445.4
 
3 502.0
 
3 574.9
 
3 639.6
 
3 710.0
 
Whey powder 33
USD/t
883.3
 
1 080.9
 
1 158.3
 
1 219.8
 
1 178.2
 
1 186.9
 
1 215.8
 
1 244.1
 
1 278.4
 
1 328.3
 
1 359.0
 
Casein 34
USD/t
6 329.1
 
6 546.5
 
7 313.2
 
7 489.7
 
7 649.7
 
7 831.7
 
8 017.4
 
8 170.3
 
8 364.0
 
8 556.8
 
8 754.3
 
BIOFUEL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol 35
USD/hl
44.5
 
45.8
 
46.7
 
47.5
 
48.4
 
49.7
 
50.6
 
51.3
 
51.5
 
51.9
 
52.4
 
Biodiesel 36
USD/hl
85.1
 
91.5
 
91.8
 
91.9
 
91.9
 
91.7
 
91.9
 
91.9
 
92.8
 
92.3
 
93.4
 
COTTON
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cotton 37
USD/t
1 697.4
 
1 597.2
 
1 436.1
 
1 450.4
 
1 469.9
 
1 517.0
 
1 537.9
 
1 542.6
 
1 541.7
 
1 539.5
 
1 544.1
 
ROOTS AND TUBERS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Roots and tubers 38
USD/t
377.0
 
372.6
 
388.3
 
400.9
 
408.0
 
410.7
 
410.4
 
410.5
 
413.8
 
415.5
 
418.1
 
USA GDP Deflator (2010=1)
Index
1.103
 
1.144
 
1.169
 
1.197
 
1.224
 
1.252
 
1.281
 
1.310
 
1.340
 
1.371
 
1.403
 
A.11World prices(cont.)
  Real price
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
CEREALS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat 1
USD/t
187.4
 
182.7
 
182.8
 
183.0
 
181.5
 
178.3
 
174.6
 
170.4
 
167.7
 
165.4
 
163.3
 
Maize 2
USD/t
141.5
 
138.7
 
139.6
 
139.8
 
141.0
 
139.5
 
135.9
 
131.6
 
128.5
 
125.8
 
123.3
 
Other coarse grains 3
USD/t
151.6
 
143.2
 
145.2
 
144.6
 
143.8
 
143.2
 
141.3
 
139.1
 
137.6
 
136.1
 
135.0
 
Rice 4
USD/t
367.0
 
360.4
 
351.2
 
342.4
 
338.4
 
335.1
 
331.0
 
325.0
 
318.7
 
312.5
 
307.3
 
Distiller's dry grains 5
USD/t
116.4
 
119.4
 
121.0
 
121.0
 
121.3
 
120.0
 
117.4
 
114.1
 
111.7
 
109.3
 
107.3
 
OILSEEDS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Soybean 6
USD/t
362.5
 
344.1
 
349.9
 
347.9
 
344.1
 
340.0
 
336.4
 
333.1
 
329.3
 
326.3
 
322.7
 
Other oilseeds 7
USD/t
384.5
 
383.9
 
387.1
 
381.1
 
378.5
 
371.5
 
366.2
 
360.5
 
356.9
 
351.2
 
347.8
 
Protein meals 8
USD/t
287.4
 
273.5
 
277.0
 
278.1
 
278.4
 
275.0
 
272.6
 
267.7
 
266.2
 
263.2
 
261.0
 
Vegetable oils 9
USD/t
710.3
 
724.2
 
709.0
 
693.1
 
681.7
 
673.2
 
665.7
 
658.5
 
652.5
 
644.0
 
636.0
 
SWEETENERS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Raw sugar 10
USD/t
326.4
 
303.2
 
301.7
 
298.5
 
296.5
 
293.8
 
290.9
 
288.3
 
285.9
 
283.1
 
279.7
 
Refined sugar 11
USD/t
401.9
 
364.7
 
371.2
 
365.6
 
362.0
 
357.9
 
353.5
 
349.0
 
345.0
 
340.9
 
336.4
 
HFCS 12
USD/t dw
557.7
 
440.2
 
444.3
 
439.9
 
439.9
 
436.5
 
430.9
 
423.8
 
418.3
 
413.0
 
407.9
 
Molasses 13
USD/t
138.6
 
137.9
 
145.0
 
148.5
 
149.2
 
146.1
 
141.8
 
137.3
 
133.9
 
131.3
 
129.2
 
MEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Beef and veal
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Price, EU 14
USD/t dwt
3 768.1
 
3 543.5
 
3 385.7
 
3 324.5
 
3 255.5
 
3 150.9
 
3 049.0
 
2 957.0
 
2 899.4
 
2 847.7
 
2 811.4
 
Price, United States 15
USD/t dwt
4 202.2
 
3 652.9
 
3 456.2
 
3 322.9
 
3 239.2
 
3 132.4
 
3 034.4
 
2 955.4
 
2 916.7
 
2 884.0
 
2 851.9
 
Price, Brazil 16
USD/t dwt
3 632.2
 
3 361.9
 
3 224.0
 
3 159.6
 
3 114.8
 
3 027.1
 
2 943.6
 
2 842.8
 
2 789.4
 
2 736.3
 
2 695.9
 
Pigmeat
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Price, EU 17
USD/t dwt
1 516.6
 
1 517.7
 
1 497.3
 
1 538.7
 
1 580.1
 
1 590.9
 
1 572.1
 
1 491.1
 
1 401.8
 
1 379.4
 
1 402.0
 
Price, United States 18
USD/t dwt
1 359.6
 
1 260.5
 
1 209.7
 
1 241.4
 
1 276.3
 
1 289.3
 
1 277.5
 
1 211.3
 
1 134.2
 
1 115.8
 
1 134.7
 
Price, Brazil 19
USD/t dwt
2 153.8
 
1 991.5
 
1 964.4
 
2 023.2
 
2 072.7
 
2 076.5
 
2 038.2
 
1 935.1
 
1 844.7
 
1 821.8
 
1 846.4
 
Poultry meat
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Price, EU 20
USD/t rtc
1 836.9
 
1 754.0
 
1 683.3
 
1 658.8
 
1 650.2
 
1 617.4
 
1 581.7
 
1 533.4
 
1 491.2
 
1 452.9
 
1 406.3
 
Price, United States 21
USD/t rtc
1 081.6
 
997.0
 
997.6
 
991.4
 
993.4
 
976.1
 
953.6
 
928.6
 
905.2
 
883.6
 
863.7
 
Price, Brazil 22
USD/t rtc
1 459.3
 
1 386.3
 
1 396.9
 
1 392.0
 
1 396.0
 
1 373.4
 
1 344.2
 
1 312.3
 
1 283.0
 
1 255.4
 
1 230.3
 
Sheep meat
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Price, New Zealand 23
USD/t dwt
3 386.2
 
3 382.9
 
3 242.4
 
3 207.4
 
3 085.2
 
2 995.2
 
2 989.8
 
2 937.6
 
2 887.4
 
2 842.9
 
2 791.9
 
FISH AND SEAFOOD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Product traded 24
USD/t
2 563.6
 
2 571.7
 
2 656.3
 
2 628.3
 
2 711.8
 
2 618.4
 
2 601.9
 
2 560.3
 
2 535.5
 
2 514.8
 
2 495.0
 
Aquaculture 25
USD/t
2 609.8
 
2 261.1
 
2 331.9
 
2 271.3
 
2 341.2
 
2 256.6
 
2 241.8
 
2 208.3
 
2 216.2
 
2 197.8
 
2 186.8
 
Capture 26
USD/t
1 412.2
 
1 401.1
 
1 423.6
 
1 406.7
 
1 428.3
 
1 385.5
 
1 370.4
 
1 346.7
 
1 329.2
 
1 315.2
 
1 296.9
 
Meal 27
USD/t
1 338.5
 
1 289.8
 
1 289.0
 
1 259.0
 
1 325.2
 
1 257.5
 
1 250.8
 
1 246.0
 
1 236.7
 
1 285.8
 
1 226.6
 
Oil 28
USD/t
1 502.4
 
1 438.1
 
1 538.1
 
1 531.4
 
1 617.7
 
1 458.3
 
1 450.5
 
1 423.3
 
1 408.8
 
1 559.2
 
1 368.4
 
DAIRY PRODUCTS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter 29
USD/t
3 556.3
 
3 945.4
 
3 616.2
 
3 569.4
 
3 513.6
 
3 493.0
 
3 412.4
 
3 347.5
 
3 293.0
 
3 245.4
 
3 186.1
 
Cheese 30
USD/t
3 103.5
 
3 233.4
 
3 238.8
 
3 238.5
 
3 203.2
 
3 182.9
 
3 141.9
 
3 101.7
 
3 070.5
 
3 039.7
 
3 007.3
 
Skim milk powder 31
USD/t
1 877.2
 
1 815.0
 
1 963.3
 
1 978.7
 
1 991.7
 
2 020.6
 
2 032.6
 
2 036.2
 
2 043.2
 
2 054.5
 
2 064.0
 
Whole milk powder 32
USD/t
2 413.2
 
2 587.7
 
2 675.1
 
2 689.3
 
2 688.4
 
2 697.8
 
2 690.2
 
2 672.9
 
2 667.3
 
2 654.7
 
2 645.2
 
Whey powder 33
USD/t
800.4
 
944.7
 
990.6
 
1 018.7
 
962.7
 
948.0
 
949.3
 
949.5
 
953.8
 
968.8
 
969.0
 
Casein 34
USD/t
5 741.6
 
5 721.8
 
6 254.4
 
6 255.0
 
6 250.3
 
6 255.4
 
6 259.9
 
6 236.1
 
6 240.7
 
6 241.2
 
6 241.9
 
BIOFUEL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol 35
USD/hl
40.4
 
40.0
 
39.9
 
39.7
 
39.6
 
39.7
 
39.5
 
39.2
 
38.4
 
37.8
 
37.4
 
Biodiesel 36
USD/hl
77.2
 
80.0
 
78.5
 
76.7
 
75.1
 
73.3
 
71.8
 
70.1
 
69.3
 
67.3
 
66.6
 
COTTON
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cotton 37
USD/t
1 538.5
 
1 395.9
 
1 228.2
 
1 211.3
 
1 201.0
 
1 211.7
 
1 200.8
 
1 177.4
 
1 150.3
 
1 122.9
 
1 101.0
 
ROOTS AND TUBERS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Roots and tubers 38
USD/t
342.3
 
325.6
 
332.1
 
334.8
 
333.4
 
328.0
 
320.4
 
313.3
 
308.7
 
303.1
 
298.1
 
Note: This table is a compilation of price information presented in the detailed commodity tables further in this annex. Prices for crops are on marketing year basis and those for products on calendar year basis. See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
No.2 hard red winter wheat, ordinary protein, United States FOB Gulf Ports (June/May).
2.
No.2 yellow corn, United States FOB Gulf Ports (September/August).
3.
Feed barley, Europe, FOB Rouen (July/June).
4.
Milled 100%, grade b, nominal price quote, FOB Bangkok (January/December).
5.
Wholesale price, Central Illinois (September/August).
6.
Soybean, U.S., CIF Rotterdam (October/September).
7.
Rapeseed, Europe, CIF Hamburg (October/September).
8.
Weighted average meal price, European port (October/September).
9.
Weighted average price of oilseed oils and palm oil, European port (October/September).
10.
Raw sugar world price, ICE contract No11 nearby (October/September).
11.
Refined sugar price,Euronext,Liffe,Contract No. 407 London, Europe (October/September).
12.
United States wholesale list price HFCS-55, dry weight (October/September).
13.
Unit import price, Europe (October/September).
14.
EU average beef producer price.
15.
Choice steers, 1100-1300 lb lw, Nebraska - lw to dwt conversion factor 0.63.
16.
Brazil: frozen beef, export unit value, product weight.
17.
EU average pigmeat producer price.
18.
Barrows and gilts, No. 1-3, 230-250 lb lw, Iowa/South Minnesota - lw to dwt conversion factor 0.74.
19.
Brazil: frozen pigmeat, export unit value, product weight.
20.
EU average producer price.
21.
Wholesale weighted average broiler price 12 cities.
22.
Brazil: export unit value for chicken (FOB), product weight.
23.
Lamb schedule price, all grade average.
24.
World unit value of trade (sum of exports and imports).
25.
World unit value of aquaculture fisheries production (live weight basis).
26.
FAO estimated value of world ex-vessel value of capture fisheries production excluding for reduction.
27.
Fishmeal, 64-65% protein, Hamburg, Germany.
28.
Fish oil any origin, N.W. Europe.
29.
FOB export price, butter, 82% butterfat, Oceania.
30.
FOB export price, cheddar cheese, 39% moisture, Oceania.
31.
FOB export price, non-fat dry milk, 1.25% butterfat, Oceania.
32.
FOB export price, WMP 26% butterfat, Oceania.
33.
FOB export price, sweet whey non-hygroscopic, Western Europe.
34.
Export price, New Zealand.
35.
Wholesale price, United States, Omaha.
36.
Producer price Germany net of biodiesel tariff and energy tax.
37.
Cotlook A index, Middling 1 3/32", c.f.r. far Eastern ports (August/July).
38.
Thailand, Bangkok, Cassava (flour), wholesale.
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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