1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

English Italian, Spanish, Chinese, French

From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.2World oilseed projections
A.2World oilseed projections
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
SOYBEAN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
337.1
 
355.8
 
361.9
 
368.5
 
374.9
 
380.9
 
385.8
 
390.9
 
396.3
 
401.5
 
406.8
 
Area
Mha
122.8
 
128.7
 
129.7
 
130.9
 
131.8
 
132.9
 
133.6
 
134.3
 
135.1
 
135.9
 
136.7
 
Yield
t/ha
2.74
 
2.77
 
2.79
 
2.82
 
2.84
 
2.87
 
2.89
 
2.91
 
2.93
 
2.95
 
2.98
 
Consumption
Mt
332.8
 
356.3
 
362.6
 
368.6
 
374.7
 
380.5
 
385.5
 
390.7
 
395.9
 
401.2
 
406.4
 
Crush
Mt
297.5
 
320.0
 
326.2
 
331.9
 
337.7
 
343.2
 
347.9
 
352.9
 
357.8
 
362.8
 
367.8
 
Closing stocks
Mt
38.6
 
41.9
 
41.1
 
41.0
 
41.2
 
41.6
 
41.9
 
42.1
 
42.4
 
42.6
 
43.0
 
Price 1
USD/t
399.7
 
393.7
 
409.1
 
416.6
 
421.1
 
425.7
 
430.8
 
436.4
 
441.4
 
447.3
 
452.5
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
133.3
 
139.2
 
140.5
 
142.6
 
145.0
 
146.7
 
148.5
 
150.3
 
152.2
 
154.0
 
155.9
 
Consumption
Mt
88.7
 
91.7
 
92.2
 
93.3
 
94.2
 
95.2
 
96.4
 
97.3
 
98.5
 
99.9
 
101.2
 
Crush
Mt
79.6
 
82.6
 
83.2
 
84.3
 
85.2
 
86.2
 
87.3
 
88.2
 
89.5
 
90.8
 
92.1
 
Closing stocks
Mt
12.4
 
15.4
 
14.6
 
14.4
 
14.3
 
14.3
 
14.3
 
14.2
 
14.2
 
14.2
 
14.2
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
203.9
 
216.6
 
221.4
 
225.9
 
229.9
 
234.2
 
237.3
 
240.6
 
244.0
 
247.4
 
250.8
 
Consumption
Mt
244.1
 
264.6
 
270.5
 
275.3
 
280.5
 
285.2
 
289.2
 
293.5
 
297.4
 
301.3
 
305.2
 
Crush
Mt
217.9
 
237.4
 
243.0
 
247.6
 
252.5
 
257.0
 
260.7
 
264.7
 
268.3
 
272.0
 
275.7
 
Closing stocks
Mt
26.2
 
26.5
 
26.5
 
26.6
 
26.9
 
27.3
 
27.6
 
27.9
 
28.2
 
28.5
 
28.8
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
124.8
 
129.8
 
130.9
 
132.8
 
135.0
 
136.5
 
138.1
 
139.7
 
141.4
 
143.0
 
144.7
 
Consumption
Mt
89.2
 
92.1
 
92.7
 
94.0
 
95.0
 
96.1
 
97.3
 
98.2
 
99.5
 
101.0
 
102.3
 
Crush
Mt
80.1
 
83.0
 
83.7
 
84.9
 
85.9
 
87.0
 
88.2
 
89.2
 
90.5
 
91.9
 
93.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
13.0
 
15.8
 
15.1
 
14.8
 
14.8
 
14.8
 
14.7
 
14.7
 
14.7
 
14.6
 
14.6
 
OTHER OILSEEDS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
146.8
 
150.7
 
152.9
 
155.3
 
157.5
 
160.0
 
162.5
 
165.2
 
167.8
 
170.5
 
173.0
 
Area
Mha
83.9
 
86.0
 
86.5
 
87.1
 
87.5
 
88.1
 
88.6
 
89.2
 
89.8
 
90.4
 
90.9
 
Yield
t/ha
1.75
 
1.75
 
1.77
 
1.78
 
1.80
 
1.82
 
1.83
 
1.85
 
1.87
 
1.89
 
1.90
 
Consumption
Mt
147.1
 
150.7
 
153.1
 
155.4
 
157.5
 
160.0
 
162.5
 
165.1
 
167.7
 
170.4
 
173.0
 
Crush
Mt
124.6
 
128.6
 
130.6
 
132.8
 
134.7
 
136.9
 
139.2
 
141.6
 
144.0
 
146.4
 
148.8
 
Closing stocks
Mt
8.5
 
8.7
 
8.5
 
8.4
 
8.4
 
8.5
 
8.5
 
8.6
 
8.6
 
8.7
 
8.7
 
Price 3
USD/t
424.0
 
439.2
 
452.6
 
456.3
 
463.3
 
465.2
 
469.0
 
472.3
 
478.4
 
481.5
 
487.7
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
88.2
 
90.2
 
91.4
 
92.8
 
94.1
 
95.7
 
97.1
 
98.7
 
100.2
 
101.8
 
103.4
 
Consumption
Mt
80.6
 
80.4
 
81.5
 
82.7
 
83.7
 
84.9
 
86.1
 
87.3
 
88.5
 
89.8
 
91.2
 
Crush
Mt
72.9
 
72.6
 
73.7
 
74.8
 
75.8
 
76.9
 
78.1
 
79.2
 
80.4
 
81.6
 
82.9
 
Closing stocks
Mt
6.3
 
6.4
 
6.3
 
6.1
 
6.1
 
6.1
 
6.1
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
58.6
 
60.5
 
61.5
 
62.5
 
63.4
 
64.4
 
65.4
 
66.5
 
67.6
 
68.7
 
69.6
 
Consumption
Mt
66.5
 
70.4
 
71.6
 
72.8
 
73.8
 
75.1
 
76.4
 
77.8
 
79.2
 
80.6
 
81.8
 
Crush
Mt
51.7
 
55.9
 
57.0
 
58.0
 
59.0
 
60.0
 
61.2
 
62.4
 
63.7
 
64.9
 
65.9
 
Closing stocks
Mt
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.6
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
59.5
 
60.9
 
61.1
 
61.5
 
61.8
 
62.2
 
62.6
 
63.0
 
63.2
 
63.5
 
63.8
 
Consumption
Mt
56.3
 
56.1
 
56.3
 
56.7
 
56.8
 
57.1
 
57.4
 
57.6
 
57.7
 
57.9
 
58.1
 
Crush
Mt
50.9
 
50.8
 
51.0
 
51.3
 
51.5
 
51.7
 
52.0
 
52.1
 
52.2
 
52.4
 
52.5
 
Closing stocks
Mt
5.4
 
5.6
 
5.4
 
5.3
 
5.2
 
5.3
 
5.3
 
5.3
 
5.3
 
5.3
 
5.3
 
PROTEIN MEALS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
326.7
 
348.2
 
354.1
 
360.3
 
366.3
 
372.2
 
377.7
 
383.4
 
389.0
 
394.8
 
400.4
 
Consumption
Mt
324.7
 
348.0
 
354.1
 
360.1
 
366.1
 
372.0
 
377.5
 
383.3
 
389.0
 
394.7
 
400.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
14.7
 
14.5
 
14.5
 
14.7
 
14.8
 
14.9
 
15.2
 
15.2
 
15.3
 
15.4
 
15.5
 
Price 4
USD/t
316.8
 
312.9
 
323.8
 
333.0
 
340.7
 
344.3
 
349.1
 
350.7
 
356.8
 
360.8
 
366.0
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
104.6
 
107.0
 
107.8
 
109.2
 
110.4
 
111.8
 
113.3
 
114.6
 
116.2
 
117.9
 
119.6
 
Consumption
Mt
120.3
 
123.3
 
123.8
 
124.7
 
125.7
 
126.6
 
127.1
 
127.9
 
128.9
 
129.7
 
130.4
 
Closing stocks
Mt
1.8
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
222.1
 
241.1
 
246.4
 
251.1
 
255.9
 
260.5
 
264.5
 
268.8
 
272.9
 
276.9
 
280.8
 
Consumption
Mt
204.3
 
224.7
 
230.3
 
235.4
 
240.5
 
245.4
 
250.3
 
255.4
 
260.1
 
265.0
 
269.8
 
Closing stocks
Mt
12.9
 
12.7
 
12.6
 
12.8
 
12.8
 
13.0
 
13.1
 
13.2
 
13.2
 
13.3
 
13.3
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
96.5
 
99.1
 
99.5
 
100.8
 
101.8
 
102.8
 
104.1
 
105.0
 
106.2
 
107.5
 
108.8
 
Consumption
Mt
124.6
 
127.4
 
128.2
 
129.1
 
130.2
 
131.3
 
132.0
 
132.9
 
134.1
 
135.0
 
135.7
 
Closing stocks
Mt
1.6
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
VEGETABLE OILS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
189.6
 
202.0
 
205.7
 
209.7
 
213.5
 
217.1
 
220.6
 
224.2
 
227.7
 
231.2
 
234.6
 
of which palm oil
Mt
65.1
 
71.1
 
72.6
 
74.2
 
75.8
 
77.1
 
78.4
 
79.6
 
80.8
 
82.0
 
83.2
 
Consumption
Mt
191.6
 
202.6
 
205.7
 
209.6
 
213.2
 
216.8
 
220.4
 
224.0
 
227.5
 
231.0
 
234.5
 
Food
Mt
153.5
 
162.0
 
164.8
 
168.1
 
171.9
 
175.5
 
179.1
 
182.4
 
185.7
 
189.0
 
192.3
 
Biofuel
Mt
24.0
 
26.1
 
26.4
 
26.9
 
26.7
 
26.5
 
26.6
 
26.7
 
26.9
 
27.0
 
27.2
 
Exports
Mt
76.7
 
81.3
 
83.5
 
85.3
 
86.9
 
88.5
 
90.1
 
91.7
 
93.2
 
94.8
 
96.3
 
Closing stocks
Mt
22.7
 
22.3
 
22.3
 
22.4
 
22.6
 
22.9
 
23.1
 
23.3
 
23.4
 
23.6
 
23.7
 
Price 5
USD/t
783.5
 
828.6
 
829.0
 
829.9
 
834.3
 
842.9
 
852.5
 
862.8
 
874.6
 
883.0
 
892.0
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
48.3
 
48.6
 
49.1
 
49.9
 
50.5
 
51.2
 
52.0
 
52.7
 
53.5
 
54.3
 
55.2
 
Consumption
Mt
53.7
 
54.0
 
53.6
 
53.9
 
54.1
 
54.3
 
54.5
 
54.6
 
54.8
 
54.9
 
55.0
 
Closing stocks
Mt
4.8
 
4.2
 
3.9
 
3.8
 
3.9
 
4.1
 
4.1
 
4.2
 
4.2
 
4.2
 
4.1
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
141.3
 
153.4
 
156.6
 
159.9
 
163.0
 
165.9
 
168.7
 
171.5
 
174.2
 
176.9
 
179.5
 
Consumption
Mt
137.8
 
148.6
 
152.1
 
155.7
 
159.1
 
162.5
 
166.0
 
169.4
 
172.7
 
176.1
 
179.5
 
Closing stocks
Mt
17.9
 
18.1
 
18.4
 
18.6
 
18.7
 
18.8
 
19.0
 
19.1
 
19.3
 
19.4
 
19.6
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
39.3
 
39.7
 
39.9
 
40.3
 
40.6
 
41.0
 
41.3
 
41.6
 
42.0
 
42.4
 
42.7
 
Consumption
Mt
53.5
 
53.9
 
53.6
 
53.9
 
54.1
 
54.2
 
54.4
 
54.6
 
54.8
 
54.9
 
55.0
 
Closing stocks
Mt
3.9
 
3.6
 
3.4
 
3.3
 
3.4
 
3.5
 
3.6
 
3.6
 
3.6
 
3.6
 
3.5
 
Note: Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Soybean, U.S., CIF Rotterdam (October/September).
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Rapeseed, Europe, CIF Hamburg (October/September).
4.
Weighted average protein meal, European port (October/September).
5.
Weighted average price of oilseed oils and palm oil, European port (October/September).
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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