World meat projections

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex

https://doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2018-en

Table

Table A.4 - World meat projections

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‌A.4	World meat projections
A.4	World meat projections
	Calendar year
‌	‌‌	‌‌	‌Average 2015-17est‌	‌2018‌	‌2019‌	‌2020‌	‌2021‌	‌2022‌	‌2023‌	‌2024‌	‌2025‌	‌2026‌	‌2027‌
‌	WORLD
‌	BEEF AND VEAL
‌	Production	kt cwe	68 486	71 724	72 799	73 683	74 296	75 038	75 839	76 697	77 471	78 394	79 292
‌	Consumption	kt cwe	67 977	70 932	72 105	72 908	73 509	74 250	75 056	75 913	76 690	77 617	78 510
‌	PIGMEAT
‌	Production	kt cwe	117 547	120 708	121 855	123 151	124 401	125 644	126 731	127 759	128 807	129 820	130 930
‌	Consumption	kt cwe	117 354	120 476	121 679	122 975	124 230	125 461	126 537	127 556	128 595	129 597	130 699
‌	POULTRY MEAT
‌	Production	kt rtc	118 083	123 205	125 350	127 142	128 705	130 491	132 229	134 052	135 752	137 316	139 016
‌	Consumption	kt rtc	118 018	123 121	125 248	127 050	128 624	130 401	132 142	133 966	135 669	137 234	138 921
‌	SHEEP MEAT
‌	Production	kt cwe	14 417	14 872	15 128	15 413	15 708	16 002	16 276	16 559	16 848	17 138	17 430
‌	Consumption	kt cwe	14 436	14 868	15 124	15 411	15 710	15 998	16 269	16 548	16 834	17 121	17 410
‌	TOTAL MEAT
‌	Per capita consumption 1	kg rwt	34.3	34.7	34.9	35.0	35.0	35.1	35.1	35.2	35.2	35.3	35.4
‌	DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
‌	BEEF AND VEAL
‌	Production	kt cwe	29 543	30 883	31 167	31 326	31 234	31 330	31 516	31 727	31 839	32 030	32 196
‌	Consumption	kt cwe	28 643	29 805	30 235	30 312	30 138	30 171	30 297	30 481	30 572	30 750	30 896
‌	PIGMEAT
‌	Production	kt cwe	44 251	45 297	45 244	45 378	45 521	45 816	45 974	46 183	46 402	46 532	46 770
‌	Consumption	kt cwe	40 773	41 634	41 718	41 852	41 992	42 257	42 350	42 468	42 588	42 579	42 739
‌	POULTRY MEAT
‌	Production	kt rtc	48 947	50 868	51 460	52 063	52 398	52 845	53 262	53 696	54 101	54 430	54 763
‌	Consumption	kt rtc	46 971	48 772	49 165	49 666	49 910	50 244	50 538	50 843	51 097	51 280	51 462
‌	SHEEP MEAT
‌	Production	kt cwe	3 502	3 624	3 683	3 729	3 793	3 863	3 895	3 932	3 969	4 007	4 045
‌	Consumption	kt cwe	2 846	2 915	2 959	2 994	3 037	3 079	3 101	3 128	3 155	3 183	3 210
‌	TOTAL MEAT
‌	Per capita consumption 1	kg rwt	68.0	69.7	70.0	70.2	70.1	70.3	70.4	70.6	70.7	70.7	70.8
‌	DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
‌	BEEF AND VEAL
‌	Production	kt cwe	38 943	40 842	41 631	42 357	43 061	43 708	44 323	44 969	45 632	46 364	47 096
‌	Consumption	kt cwe	39 334	41 126	41 870	42 595	43 371	44 079	44 759	45 432	46 118	46 867	47 613
‌	PIGMEAT
‌	Production	kt cwe	73 296	75 411	76 611	77 773	78 880	79 828	80 756	81 576	82 405	83 288	84 160
‌	Consumption	kt cwe	76 581	78 843	79 960	81 123	82 238	83 204	84 187	85 087	86 008	87 019	87 960
‌	POULTRY MEAT
‌	Production	kt rtc	69 136	72 337	73 890	75 080	76 307	77 646	78 966	80 356	81 651	82 886	84 253
‌	Consumption	kt rtc	71 047	74 349	76 083	77 385	78 714	80 158	81 604	83 123	84 572	85 955	87 458
‌	SHEEP MEAT
‌	Production	kt cwe	10 915	11 249	11 446	11 684	11 915	12 139	12 382	12 627	12 878	13 131	13 385
‌	Consumption	kt cwe	11 590	11 953	12 165	12 418	12 673	12 919	13 168	13 420	13 679	13 938	14 200
‌	TOTAL MEAT
‌	Per capita consumption 1	kg rwt	26.4	26.8	26.9	27.1	27.2	27.3	27.4	27.5	27.6	27.7	27.9
‌	OECD 2
‌	BEEF AND VEAL
‌	Production	kt cwe	27 731	29 331	29 679	29 838	29 724	29 800	29 945	30 119	30 218	30 397	30 554
‌	Consumption	kt cwe	26 736	28 259	28 705	28 777	28 596	28 623	28 741	28 920	29 003	29 176	29 323
‌	PIGMEAT
‌	Production	kt cwe	42 062	42 982	42 920	42 990	43 107	43 372	43 518	43 720	43 938	44 050	44 271
‌	Consumption	kt cwe	39 307	40 139	40 247	40 336	40 439	40 674	40 782	40 911	41 033	41 052	41 211
‌	POULTRY MEAT
‌	Production	kt rtc	47 017	48 761	49 421	50 016	50 362	50 831	51 270	51 738	52 165	52 512	52 876
‌	Consumption	kt rtc	44 688	46 380	46 820	47 336	47 626	48 004	48 337	48 686	48 976	49 193	49 424
‌	SHEEP MEAT
‌	Production	kt cwe	2 721	2 797	2 846	2 877	2 926	2 980	2 997	3 018	3 040	3 062	3 086
‌	Consumption	kt cwe	2 075	2 103	2 135	2 154	2 181	2 206	2 214	2 226	2 237	2 250	2 263
‌	TOTAL MEAT
‌	Per capita consumption 1	kg rwt	68.5	70.3	70.5	70.6	70.5	70.6	70.7	70.8	70.9	70.9	71.0

Note: Calendar Year; except year ending 30 September for New Zealand in aggregates. Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
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1.	Per capita consumption expressed in retail weight. Carcass weight to retail weight conversion factors of 0.7 for beef and veal, 0.78 for pigmeat and 0.88 for both sheep meat and poultry meat.
2.	Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en