1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.7 - World fish and seafood projections

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.7World fish and seafood projections
A.7World fish and seafood projections
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
FISH 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
171 747
 
176 476
 
178 380
 
180 473
 
181 458
 
184 920
 
187 031
 
188 820
 
190 965
 
190 893
 
194 675
 
of which aquaculture
kt
79 729
 
85 232
 
87 992
 
90 883
 
93 293
 
95 112
 
96 980
 
98 504
 
100 458
 
102 070
 
103 713
 
Consumption
kt
172 616
 
177 163
 
178 969
 
180 963
 
181 849
 
185 212
 
187 224
 
188 916
 
190 960
 
190 889
 
194 672
 
of which for food
kt
153 230
 
158 492
 
160 919
 
163 491
 
165 558
 
167 951
 
169 961
 
171 648
 
173 698
 
174 930
 
177 343
 
of which for reduction
kt
14 304
 
14 334
 
14 107
 
13 923
 
12 911
 
13 959
 
13 991
 
14 024
 
14 048
 
12 824
 
14 173
 
Price
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Aquaculture 2
USD/t
2 877.6
 
2 587.0
 
2 726.6
 
2 719.6
 
2 865.3
 
2 825.3
 
2 871.1
 
2 893.2
 
2 970.2
 
3 013.2
 
3 067.0
 
Capture 3
USD/t
1 557.4
 
1 603.1
 
1 664.6
 
1 684.3
 
1 748.1
 
1 734.6
 
1 755.2
 
1 764.4
 
1 781.5
 
1 803.1
 
1 818.9
 
Product traded 4
USD/t
2 827.8
 
2 942.4
 
3 106.0
 
3 147.1
 
3 319.0
 
3 278.3
 
3 332.4
 
3 354.4
 
3 398.1
 
3 447.8
 
3 499.3
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
28 860
 
28 839
 
29 011
 
29 112
 
29 165
 
29 183
 
29 178
 
29 193
 
29 211
 
29 281
 
29 322
 
of which aquaculture
kt
4 578
 
4 765
 
4 924
 
5 088
 
5 188
 
5 228
 
5 258
 
5 311
 
5 371
 
5 470
 
5 549
 
Consumption
kt
37 018
 
36 746
 
36 593
 
36 586
 
36 559
 
37 081
 
36 875
 
37 253
 
37 135
 
37 579
 
37 433
 
of which for food
kt
31 893
 
32 368
 
32 266
 
32 303
 
32 303
 
32 860
 
32 676
 
33 076
 
32 981
 
33 432
 
33 317
 
of which for reduction
kt
4 428
 
3 901
 
3 850
 
3 806
 
3 779
 
3 745
 
3 722
 
3 700
 
3 677
 
3 669
 
3 639
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
142 582
 
147 336
 
149 069
 
151 062
 
151 993
 
155 437
 
157 553
 
159 327
 
161 454
 
161 312
 
165 053
 
of which aquaculture
kt
75 149
 
80 466
 
83 067
 
85 793
 
88 103
 
89 882
 
91 720
 
93 191
 
95 085
 
96 599
 
98 162
 
Consumption
kt
135 555
 
140 386
 
142 344
 
144 346
 
145 259
 
148 099
 
150 319
 
151 632
 
153 793
 
153 279
 
157 208
 
of which for food
kt
121 326
 
126 112
 
128 641
 
131 176
 
133 243
 
135 080
 
137 273
 
138 560
 
140 704
 
141 486
 
144 013
 
of which for reduction
kt
9 872
 
10 428
 
10 252
 
10 112
 
9 127
 
10 210
 
10 264
 
10 320
 
10 366
 
9 150
 
10 530
 
OECD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
28 361
 
28 530
 
28 752
 
28 908
 
28 688
 
28 862
 
29 047
 
29 137
 
29 229
 
28 880
 
29 364
 
of which aquaculture
kt
6 197
 
6 414
 
6 641
 
6 846
 
6 986
 
7 037
 
7 081
 
7 160
 
7 242
 
7 364
 
7 466
 
Consumption
kt
38 349
 
38 704
 
38 584
 
38 634
 
38 369
 
39 017
 
38 914
 
39 365
 
39 296
 
39 477
 
39 717
 
of which for food
kt
33 107
 
33 610
 
33 594
 
33 722
 
33 696
 
34 254
 
34 141
 
34 607
 
34 554
 
35 031
 
35 025
 
of which for reduction
kt
4 507
 
4 472
 
4 393
 
4 340
 
4 151
 
4 191
 
4 201
 
4 186
 
4 171
 
3 925
 
4 120
 
FISHMEAL 5
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
4 513.0
 
4 714.1
 
4 725.1
 
4 742.1
 
4 546.5
 
4 857.2
 
4 911.1
 
4 968.0
 
5 022.4
 
4 755.8
 
5 152.5
 
from whole fish
kt
3 218.7
 
3 402.3
 
3 358.7
 
3 325.0
 
3 086.6
 
3 354.9
 
3 371.5
 
3 388.6
 
3 403.1
 
3 105.5
 
3 452.5
 
Consumption
kt
4 551.0
 
4 839.6
 
4 803.3
 
4 842.9
 
4 875.0
 
4 850.2
 
4 860.2
 
4 961.9
 
5 017.1
 
4 949.9
 
5 045.7
 
Variation in stocks
kt
-73.3
 
63.8
 
86.1
 
38.5
 
-204.2
 
86.3
 
95.2
 
25.4
 
-0.3
 
-204.8
 
86.2
 
Price 6
USD/t
1 474.7
 
1 475.7
 
1 507.2
 
1 507.5
 
1 621.9
 
1 574.3
 
1 601.9
 
1 632.4
 
1 657.5
 
1 762.9
 
1 720.3
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
1 472.9
 
1 465.0
 
1 476.9
 
1 486.2
 
1 498.6
 
1 506.6
 
1 514.3
 
1 523.0
 
1 531.5
 
1 543.3
 
1 550.7
 
from whole fish
kt
1 472.9
 
1 465.0
 
1 476.9
 
1 486.2
 
1 498.6
 
1 506.6
 
1 514.3
 
1 523.0
 
1 531.5
 
1 543.3
 
1 550.7
 
Consumption
kt
1 525.7
 
1 514.9
 
1 466.5
 
1 442.3
 
1 402.4
 
1 370.5
 
1 331.7
 
1 318.0
 
1 296.6
 
1 235.9
 
1 238.9
 
Variation in stocks
kt
4.7
 
-16.2
 
1.1
 
3.5
 
-42.2
 
34.3
 
10.2
 
0.4
 
-0.3
 
-42.8
 
34.2
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
3 039.5
 
3 249.1
 
3 248.2
 
3 255.9
 
3 047.9
 
3 350.6
 
3 396.7
 
3 445.0
 
3 490.9
 
3 212.6
 
3 601.8
 
from whole fish
kt
3 039.5
 
3 249.1
 
3 248.2
 
3 255.9
 
3 047.9
 
3 350.6
 
3 396.7
 
3 445.0
 
3 490.9
 
3 212.6
 
3 601.8
 
Consumption
kt
3 219.9
 
3 324.7
 
3 336.8
 
3 400.6
 
3 472.6
 
3 479.7
 
3 528.5
 
3 644.0
 
3 720.5
 
3 714.0
 
3 806.8
 
Variation in stocks
kt
-78.0
 
80.0
 
85.0
 
35.0
 
-162.0
 
52.0
 
85.0
 
25.0
 
0.0
 
-162.0
 
52.0
 
OECD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
1 470.2
 
1 575.0
 
1 576.8
 
1 580.4
 
1 551.3
 
1 575.5
 
1 592.0
 
1 603.5
 
1 615.0
 
1 571.8
 
1 633.7
 
from whole fish
kt
1 470.2
 
1 575.0
 
1 576.8
 
1 580.4
 
1 551.3
 
1 575.5
 
1 592.0
 
1 603.5
 
1 615.0
 
1 571.8
 
1 633.7
 
Consumption
kt
1 657.5
 
1 639.5
 
1 604.6
 
1 588.2
 
1 553.3
 
1 528.3
 
1 496.9
 
1 491.6
 
1 476.9
 
1 419.2
 
1 429.7
 
Variation in stocks
kt
-70.4
 
23.8
 
26.1
 
28.5
 
-92.2
 
44.3
 
25.2
 
25.4
 
-0.3
 
-92.8
 
44.2
 
FISH OIL 5
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
910.6
 
935.9
 
933.8
 
934.2
 
902.3
 
947.7
 
956.3
 
964.8
 
973.2
 
930.6
 
993.0
 
from whole fish
kt
566.5
 
580.6
 
572.1
 
566.8
 
529.2
 
569.1
 
572.0
 
574.4
 
576.5
 
527.5
 
583.4
 
Consumption
kt
946.1
 
933.0
 
939.6
 
941.3
 
993.4
 
911.0
 
941.5
 
974.9
 
985.4
 
1 020.2
 
956.3
 
Variation in stocks
kt
-21.7
 
14.6
 
5.9
 
4.6
 
-79.4
 
48.4
 
26.5
 
1.6
 
-0.6
 
-77.9
 
48.4
 
Price 7
USD/t
1 654.7
 
1 645.4
 
1 798.5
 
1 833.6
 
1 979.9
 
1 825.7
 
1 857.7
 
1 864.7
 
1 888.1
 
2 137.7
 
1 919.2
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
407.4
 
380.9
 
381.4
 
381.1
 
381.2
 
380.8
 
380.9
 
381.1
 
381.3
 
382.2
 
382.2
 
from whole fish
kt
407.4
 
380.9
 
381.4
 
381.1
 
381.2
 
380.8
 
380.9
 
381.1
 
381.3
 
382.2
 
382.2
 
Consumption
kt
544.5
 
499.0
 
511.9
 
515.7
 
585.8
 
480.1
 
498.9
 
517.4
 
519.9
 
583.5
 
485.0
 
Variation in stocks
kt
7.8
 
3.6
 
3.9
 
2.6
 
-28.4
 
23.4
 
4.5
 
-0.4
 
-0.6
 
-28.9
 
23.4
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
503.3
 
555.0
 
552.4
 
553.1
 
521.1
 
566.9
 
575.5
 
583.7
 
591.9
 
548.4
 
610.8
 
from whole fish
kt
503.3
 
555.0
 
552.4
 
553.1
 
521.1
 
566.9
 
575.5
 
583.7
 
591.9
 
548.4
 
610.8
 
Consumption
kt
404.7
 
433.9
 
427.7
 
425.6
 
407.6
 
431.0
 
442.6
 
457.5
 
465.5
 
436.7
 
471.3
 
Variation in stocks
kt
-29.5
 
11.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
-51.0
 
25.0
 
22.0
 
2.0
 
0.0
 
-49.0
 
25.0
 
OECD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
kt
466.9
 
461.6
 
462.5
 
464.0
 
458.7
 
464.8
 
469.5
 
473.3
 
477.3
 
469.9
 
484.8
 
from whole fish
kt
466.9
 
461.6
 
462.5
 
464.0
 
458.7
 
464.8
 
469.5
 
473.3
 
477.3
 
469.9
 
484.8
 
Consumption
kt
635.1
 
652.5
 
656.0
 
651.0
 
696.3
 
615.9
 
637.9
 
661.1
 
665.0
 
697.4
 
629.5
 
Variation in stocks
kt
-15.6
 
9.6
 
0.9
 
1.6
 
-29.4
 
18.4
 
6.5
 
1.6
 
-0.6
 
-27.9
 
18.4
 
Note: The term “fish” indicates fish, crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic animals, but excludes aquatic mammals, crocodiles, caimans, alligators and aquatic plants.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Data are in live weight equivalent.
2.
World unit value of aquaculture fisheries production (live weight basis).
3.
FAO estimated value of world ex vessel value of capture fisheries production excluding for reduction.
4.
World unit value of trade (sum of exports and imports).
5.
Data are in product weight.
6.
Fishmeal, 64-65% protein, Hamburg, Germany.
7.
Fish oil, any origin, N.W. Europe.
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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