1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.9World cotton projections
A.9World cotton projections
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
WORLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
23.4
 
25.1
 
25.2
 
25.6
 
25.9
 
26.3
 
26.8
 
27.3
 
27.8
 
28.3
 
28.7
 
Area
Mha
30.7
 
32.3
 
32.2
 
32.3
 
32.3
 
32.3
 
32.6
 
32.7
 
32.8
 
32.9
 
32.9
 
Yield
t/ha
0.76
 
0.78
 
0.78
 
0.79
 
0.80
 
0.81
 
0.82
 
0.83
 
0.85
 
0.86
 
0.87
 
Consumption 1
Mt
24.5
 
26.2
 
26.4
 
27.0
 
27.5
 
27.7
 
27.4
 
27.6
 
27.9
 
28.3
 
28.7
 
Exports
Mt
7.9
 
8.3
 
8.4
 
8.5
 
8.6
 
8.8
 
8.9
 
9.0
 
9.1
 
9.3
 
9.4
 
Closing stocks
Mt
19.5
 
18.1
 
16.9
 
15.5
 
13.9
 
12.4
 
11.8
 
11.4
 
11.2
 
11.2
 
11.2
 
Price 2
USD/t
1 697.4
 
1 597.2
 
1 436.1
 
1 450.4
 
1 469.9
 
1 517.0
 
1 537.9
 
1 542.6
 
1 541.7
 
1 539.5
 
1 544.1
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
6.2
 
6.5
 
6.3
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.5
 
6.6
 
6.7
 
6.8
 
6.9
 
7.0
 
Consumption
Mt
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
Exports
Mt
4.5
 
4.9
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.2
 
5.2
 
5.3
 
5.3
 
5.4
 
Imports
Mt
0.4
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
Closing stocks
Mt
2.1
 
3.0
 
2.9
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
2.4
 
2.3
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.1
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
17.2
 
18.7
 
18.9
 
19.2
 
19.5
 
19.8
 
20.2
 
20.6
 
21.0
 
21.4
 
21.8
 
Consumption
Mt
22.8
 
24.5
 
24.6
 
25.2
 
25.7
 
25.9
 
25.5
 
25.8
 
26.0
 
26.4
 
26.7
 
Exports
Mt
3.3
 
3.4
 
3.5
 
3.5
 
3.6
 
3.6
 
3.7
 
3.8
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
4.0
 
Imports
Mt
7.4
 
8.0
 
8.1
 
8.2
 
8.3
 
8.4
 
8.6
 
8.7
 
8.8
 
8.9
 
9.1
 
Closing stocks
Mt
17.4
 
15.1
 
14.0
 
12.7
 
11.2
 
9.9
 
9.4
 
9.1
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.1
 
OECD 3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
5.8
 
6.2
 
6.1
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
6.3
 
6.4
 
6.5
 
6.6
 
6.7
 
6.8
 
Consumption
Mt
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.5
 
3.5
 
Exports
Mt
3.9
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.4
 
4.5
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.7
 
4.7
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
Imports
Mt
1.6
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
Closing stocks
Mt
2.6
 
3.5
 
3.4
 
3.3
 
3.2
 
3.0
 
2.9
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Consumption for cotton means mill consumption and not final consumer demand.
2.
Cotlook A index, Middling 1 3/32", c.f.r. far Eastern ports (August/July).
3.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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