1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

English Italian, Spanish, Chinese, French

From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.1World cereal projections
A.1World cereal projections
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
WHEAT
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
750.5
 
754.7
 
763.7
 
774.8
 
783.9
 
793.3
 
802.1
 
810.0
 
817.1
 
824.7
 
832.6
 
Area
Mha
220.6
 
220.6
 
220.9
 
222.0
 
222.4
 
223.1
 
223.7
 
223.9
 
223.9
 
223.9
 
224.0
 
Yield
t/ha
3.40
 
3.42
 
3.46
 
3.49
 
3.52
 
3.56
 
3.59
 
3.62
 
3.65
 
3.68
 
3.72
 
Consumption
Mt
726.6
 
758.4
 
761.2
 
767.9
 
775.2
 
783.3
 
791.8
 
800.3
 
808.3
 
816.0
 
823.8
 
Feed use
Mt
139.5
 
146.3
 
147.6
 
149.6
 
152.2
 
154.6
 
157.3
 
159.8
 
162.3
 
164.6
 
166.9
 
Food use
Mt
496.4
 
506.1
 
510.8
 
515.2
 
519.9
 
524.7
 
529.3
 
534.1
 
538.7
 
543.1
 
547.4
 
Biofuel use
Mt
12.4
 
12.5
 
12.5
 
12.4
 
12.4
 
12.4
 
12.5
 
12.6
 
12.7
 
12.8
 
12.8
 
Other use
Mt
78.3
 
93.6
 
90.2
 
90.7
 
90.7
 
91.6
 
92.8
 
93.8
 
94.7
 
95.5
 
96.7
 
Exports
Mt
175.1
 
178.6
 
181.8
 
183.4
 
185.5
 
188.1
 
190.3
 
192.4
 
194.4
 
196.5
 
198.7
 
Closing stocks
Mt
247.6
 
254.8
 
251.9
 
253.3
 
256.5
 
260.9
 
265.7
 
269.9
 
273.2
 
276.4
 
279.7
 
Price 1
USD/t
206.6
 
209.1
 
213.8
 
219.1
 
222.2
 
223.2
 
223.6
 
223.3
 
224.7
 
226.8
 
229.1
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
401.2
 
397.8
 
402.7
 
408.5
 
412.9
 
417.7
 
421.9
 
425.5
 
428.6
 
432.0
 
435.6
 
Consumption
Mt
272.9
 
271.6
 
274.3
 
275.3
 
276.8
 
278.7
 
280.9
 
282.9
 
284.6
 
286.2
 
288.0
 
Net trade
Mt
125.4
 
129.7
 
132.4
 
133.6
 
135.4
 
137.8
 
139.9
 
142.1
 
143.8
 
145.6
 
147.5
 
Closing stocks
Mt
81.4
 
78.5
 
74.5
 
74.2
 
74.9
 
76.0
 
77.0
 
77.5
 
77.8
 
78.1
 
78.3
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
349.3
 
356.9
 
361.0
 
366.3
 
371.0
 
375.6
 
380.2
 
384.5
 
388.5
 
392.6
 
397.0
 
Consumption
Mt
453.7
 
486.8
 
486.9
 
492.6
 
498.4
 
504.6
 
510.9
 
517.3
 
523.7
 
529.8
 
535.8
 
Net trade
Mt
-118.6
 
-124.2
 
-126.9
 
-128.1
 
-129.9
 
-132.4
 
-134.4
 
-136.6
 
-138.3
 
-140.1
 
-142.0
 
Closing stocks
Mt
166.3
 
176.3
 
177.4
 
179.1
 
181.6
 
185.0
 
188.6
 
192.4
 
195.4
 
198.4
 
201.5
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
292.9
 
287.0
 
290.8
 
295.3
 
298.1
 
300.9
 
303.3
 
305.3
 
307.1
 
309.2
 
311.3
 
Consumption
Mt
223.8
 
222.1
 
224.6
 
225.2
 
226.3
 
227.8
 
229.5
 
231.1
 
232.3
 
233.5
 
234.9
 
Net trade
Mt
67.6
 
66.0
 
68.4
 
70.3
 
71.2
 
72.3
 
73.0
 
73.9
 
74.6
 
75.4
 
76.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
61.8
 
57.7
 
55.6
 
55.4
 
56.0
 
56.8
 
57.5
 
57.8
 
58.0
 
58.3
 
58.5
 
MAIZE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
1 040.8
 
1 073.9
 
1 082.8
 
1 096.7
 
1 111.4
 
1 131.2
 
1 144.9
 
1 161.8
 
1 173.6
 
1 186.3
 
1 201.7
 
Area
Mha
181.2
 
185.4
 
185.5
 
185.9
 
186.6
 
187.8
 
188.5
 
189.3
 
189.7
 
189.9
 
190.4
 
Yield
t/ha
5.74
 
5.79
 
5.84
 
5.90
 
5.96
 
6.02
 
6.07
 
6.14
 
6.19
 
6.25
 
6.31
 
Consumption
Mt
1 037.0
 
1 080.4
 
1 090.2
 
1 101.3
 
1 113.2
 
1 129.5
 
1 142.4
 
1 155.7
 
1 170.8
 
1 185.0
 
1 200.7
 
Feed use
Mt
578.8
 
606.3
 
619.1
 
624.1
 
631.3
 
644.1
 
653.7
 
664.8
 
676.1
 
686.5
 
698.5
 
Food use
Mt
132.1
 
138.3
 
140.9
 
143.3
 
145.7
 
148.3
 
150.9
 
153.5
 
156.2
 
158.8
 
161.6
 
Biofuel use
Mt
173.9
 
178.8
 
178.7
 
180.6
 
179.6
 
179.4
 
178.7
 
178.3
 
178.2
 
178.1
 
177.9
 
Other use
Mt
104.9
 
108.7
 
102.7
 
103.9
 
106.7
 
107.7
 
108.7
 
108.3
 
109.3
 
110.2
 
111.0
 
Exports
Mt
138.7
 
138.5
 
140.1
 
142.6
 
144.8
 
146.4
 
148.3
 
150.5
 
152.5
 
155.0
 
157.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
251.1
 
248.8
 
241.0
 
236.0
 
233.9
 
235.2
 
237.3
 
243.0
 
245.4
 
246.4
 
247.0
 
Price 3
USD/t
155.9
 
158.7
 
163.2
 
167.4
 
172.6
 
174.6
 
174.0
 
172.4
 
172.2
 
172.4
 
173.0
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
504.0
 
515.2
 
514.8
 
519.5
 
522.7
 
530.5
 
532.9
 
539.2
 
541.7
 
544.6
 
549.9
 
Consumption
Mt
451.9
 
463.1
 
468.6
 
469.0
 
470.3
 
475.7
 
477.0
 
479.8
 
482.9
 
485.3
 
489.4
 
Net trade
Mt
48.4
 
48.1
 
50.3
 
52.2
 
52.8
 
53.4
 
54.9
 
57.1
 
58.7
 
60.1
 
60.7
 
Closing stocks
Mt
91.4
 
100.3
 
96.1
 
94.5
 
94.0
 
95.3
 
96.3
 
98.6
 
98.7
 
97.9
 
97.7
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
536.8
 
558.7
 
568.0
 
577.1
 
588.7
 
600.7
 
612.0
 
622.5
 
631.9
 
641.7
 
651.8
 
Consumption
Mt
585.1
 
617.3
 
621.6
 
632.3
 
642.9
 
653.8
 
665.4
 
675.9
 
687.9
 
699.7
 
711.3
 
Net trade
Mt
-47.3
 
-47.7
 
-49.9
 
-51.9
 
-52.5
 
-53.1
 
-54.6
 
-56.7
 
-58.4
 
-59.7
 
-60.4
 
Closing stocks
Mt
159.7
 
148.5
 
144.8
 
141.5
 
139.8
 
139.8
 
141.0
 
144.4
 
146.7
 
148.4
 
149.3
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
475.2
 
482.2
 
481.9
 
486.5
 
489.6
 
496.6
 
498.1
 
503.6
 
505.3
 
507.7
 
512.5
 
Consumption
Mt
471.5
 
486.2
 
491.7
 
492.1
 
493.4
 
498.8
 
500.1
 
503.0
 
506.2
 
508.7
 
512.9
 
Net trade
Mt
-1.1
 
-7.6
 
-5.3
 
-3.6
 
-3.1
 
-3.4
 
-2.6
 
-1.5
 
-0.8
 
-0.2
 
-0.1
 
Closing stocks
Mt
85.9
 
95.4
 
90.9
 
88.9
 
88.2
 
89.3
 
89.9
 
91.9
 
91.9
 
91.0
 
90.8
 
OTHER COARSE GRAINS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
297.4
 
297.1
 
298.4
 
301.3
 
305.3
 
309.3
 
312.9
 
316.2
 
319.5
 
323.2
 
326.9
 
Area
Mha
157.8
 
158.3
 
158.2
 
158.4
 
159.1
 
159.6
 
160.0
 
160.4
 
160.7
 
161.1
 
161.5
 
Yield
t/ha
1.89
 
1.88
 
1.89
 
1.90
 
1.92
 
1.94
 
1.95
 
1.97
 
1.99
 
2.01
 
2.02
 
Consumption
Mt
294.3
 
295.0
 
297.4
 
300.4
 
304.3
 
308.1
 
311.6
 
314.9
 
318.5
 
322.2
 
325.9
 
Feed use
Mt
164.9
 
167.7
 
168.1
 
169.8
 
171.7
 
173.4
 
175.1
 
176.7
 
178.5
 
180.5
 
182.4
 
Food use
Mt
77.0
 
78.9
 
80.2
 
81.4
 
82.9
 
84.3
 
85.7
 
87.2
 
88.6
 
90.1
 
91.6
 
Biofuel use
Mt
9.4
 
9.6
 
9.5
 
9.6
 
9.5
 
9.5
 
9.5
 
9.5
 
9.5
 
9.5
 
9.5
 
Other use
Mt
43.2
 
38.8
 
39.6
 
39.5
 
40.2
 
40.9
 
41.3
 
41.6
 
41.8
 
42.1
 
42.4
 
Exports
Mt
45.8
 
41.5
 
42.1
 
43.2
 
44.2
 
45.1
 
46.0
 
46.8
 
47.6
 
48.4
 
49.1
 
Closing stocks
Mt
63.8
 
63.6
 
64.1
 
64.6
 
65.1
 
65.8
 
66.7
 
67.5
 
68.0
 
68.6
 
69.1
 
Price 4
USD/t
167.1
 
163.9
 
169.8
 
173.1
 
176.0
 
179.3
 
181.0
 
182.3
 
184.4
 
186.7
 
189.4
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
186.0
 
183.2
 
182.5
 
182.8
 
184.1
 
185.2
 
186.4
 
187.3
 
188.1
 
189.1
 
190.1
 
Consumption
Mt
152.7
 
151.8
 
151.3
 
151.5
 
152.3
 
153.1
 
153.5
 
153.8
 
154.2
 
154.7
 
155.3
 
Net trade
Mt
33.2
 
30.2
 
30.5
 
31.1
 
31.5
 
31.8
 
32.4
 
33.0
 
33.6
 
34.1
 
34.6
 
Closing stocks
Mt
38.5
 
39.6
 
40.3
 
40.6
 
40.9
 
41.2
 
41.7
 
42.2
 
42.4
 
42.6
 
42.9
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
111.4
 
113.9
 
115.8
 
118.5
 
121.3
 
124.1
 
126.5
 
128.9
 
131.4
 
134.1
 
136.8
 
Consumption
Mt
141.6
 
143.2
 
146.1
 
148.9
 
152.0
 
155.0
 
158.1
 
161.1
 
164.3
 
167.5
 
170.6
 
Net trade
Mt
-28.9
 
-29.8
 
-30.1
 
-30.7
 
-31.0
 
-31.3
 
-31.9
 
-32.6
 
-33.2
 
-33.7
 
-34.2
 
Closing stocks
Mt
25.3
 
24.0
 
23.8
 
24.0
 
24.3
 
24.6
 
25.0
 
25.3
 
25.6
 
25.9
 
26.2
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
151.2
 
151.7
 
151.3
 
151.6
 
152.8
 
153.7
 
154.8
 
155.5
 
156.3
 
157.3
 
158.2
 
Consumption
Mt
130.3
 
130.9
 
131.7
 
132.0
 
132.8
 
133.7
 
134.2
 
134.5
 
135.0
 
135.6
 
136.2
 
Net trade
Mt
22.4
 
19.0
 
18.9
 
19.4
 
19.8
 
20.0
 
20.4
 
20.8
 
21.3
 
21.7
 
22.0
 
Closing stocks
Mt
28.6
 
28.1
 
28.8
 
29.0
 
29.2
 
29.2
 
29.4
 
29.6
 
29.6
 
29.6
 
29.7
 
RICE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
World
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
498.3
 
509.7
 
516.4
 
522.2
 
526.8
 
532.3
 
538.1
 
544.3
 
550.5
 
556.5
 
562.3
 
Area
Mha
162.1
 
163.4
 
163.8
 
163.9
 
163.6
 
163.4
 
163.3
 
163.3
 
163.4
 
163.4
 
163.3
 
Yield
t/ha
3.07
 
3.12
 
3.15
 
3.19
 
3.22
 
3.26
 
3.30
 
3.33
 
3.37
 
3.41
 
3.44
 
Consumption
Mt
497.8
 
511.6
 
517.9
 
524.0
 
529.3
 
534.9
 
540.3
 
546.0
 
552.0
 
558.0
 
564.0
 
Feed use
Mt
19.8
 
20.5
 
20.7
 
21.0
 
21.3
 
21.5
 
21.6
 
21.7
 
21.9
 
22.1
 
22.3
 
Food use
Mt
403.4
 
415.0
 
420.0
 
425.4
 
430.3
 
435.3
 
439.9
 
444.7
 
449.8
 
454.9
 
459.5
 
Exports
Mt
45.2
 
44.7
 
45.6
 
46.6
 
47.6
 
48.7
 
49.7
 
50.9
 
52.0
 
53.2
 
54.4
 
Closing stocks
Mt
168.1
 
169.5
 
170.1
 
170.4
 
169.8
 
169.3
 
169.2
 
169.5
 
170.1
 
170.6
 
171.0
 
Price 5
USD/t
404.7
 
412.3
 
410.6
 
409.9
 
414.1
 
419.6
 
423.9
 
425.8
 
427.2
 
428.5
 
431.0
 
Developed countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
17.9
 
18.6
 
18.5
 
18.5
 
18.6
 
18.8
 
18.9
 
19.1
 
19.2
 
19.3
 
19.4
 
Consumption
Mt
19.1
 
19.3
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.5
 
19.5
 
19.5
 
19.6
 
19.6
 
19.6
 
19.7
 
Net trade
Mt
-0.9
 
-0.7
 
-0.6
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.6
 
-0.6
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
Closing stocks
Mt
5.5
 
4.9
 
4.6
 
4.4
 
4.3
 
4.2
 
4.1
 
4.2
 
4.3
 
4.5
 
4.7
 
Developing countries
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
480.5
 
491.2
 
498.0
 
503.7
 
508.2
 
513.5
 
519.2
 
525.2
 
531.3
 
537.1
 
542.9
 
Consumption
Mt
478.7
 
492.3
 
498.6
 
504.6
 
509.9
 
515.4
 
520.8
 
526.4
 
532.4
 
538.4
 
544.3
 
Net trade
Mt
1.2
 
-1.3
 
-1.5
 
-1.4
 
-1.4
 
-1.4
 
-1.5
 
-1.5
 
-1.5
 
-1.6
 
-1.6
 
Closing stocks
Mt
162.6
 
164.6
 
165.4
 
165.9
 
165.6
 
165.2
 
165.0
 
165.3
 
165.7
 
166.1
 
166.3
 
OECD 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Production
Mt
21.1
 
21.7
 
21.5
 
21.5
 
21.6
 
21.7
 
21.7
 
21.8
 
21.9
 
21.9
 
21.9
 
Consumption
Mt
22.7
 
22.7
 
22.7
 
22.7
 
22.7
 
22.7
 
22.7
 
22.7
 
22.6
 
22.6
 
22.6
 
Net trade
Mt
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
-0.9
 
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
-1.0
 
-0.9
 
-0.9
 
-0.9
 
-0.9
 
-0.9
 
Closing stocks
Mt
6.1
 
5.3
 
5.0
 
4.8
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.5
 
4.6
 
4.7
 
4.9
 
5.2
 
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
No.2 hard red winter wheat, ordinary protein, United States FOB Gulf Ports (June/May).
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
No.2 yellow corn, United States FOB Gulf Ports (September/August).
4.
Feed barley, Europe, FOB Rouen (July/June).
5.
Milled 100%, grade b, nominal price quote, FOB Bangkok (January/December).
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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