1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.13.1 - Wheat projections: Production and trade

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.13.1Wheat projections: Production and trade
A.13.1Wheat projections: Production and trade
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌PRODUCTION (kt)‌
Growth (%) 3
IMPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
EXPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
750 461
 
832 623
 
1.52
 
1.10
 
168 418
 
193 179
 
3.48
 
1.20
 
175 149
 
198 667
 
3.79
 
1.17
 
NORTH AMERICA
85 217
 
85 705
 
-0.70
 
0.77
 
3 611
 
3 466
 
2.40
 
-1.27
 
46 595
 
48 368
 
0.42
 
0.40
 
Canada
29 769
 
30 422
 
1.95
 
0.18
 
109
 
110
 
9.59
 
0.00
 
21 375
 
21 975
 
2.96
 
0.02
 
United States
55 448
 
55 283
 
-1.99
 
1.12
 
3 502
 
3 356
 
2.29
 
-1.31
 
25 220
 
26 393
 
-1.39
 
0.73
 
LATIN AMERICA
29 311
 
32 632
 
2.50
 
1.26
 
23 235
 
25 878
 
2.16
 
0.92
 
14 165
 
15 655
 
2.87
 
1.19
 
Argentina
15 897
 
18 933
 
6.37
 
1.22
 
3
 
3
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
10 660
 
12 402
 
6.07
 
1.30
 
Brazil
5 905
 
5 983
 
0.96
 
1.17
 
6 880
 
8 276
 
0.17
 
1.42
 
850
 
1 185
 
-2.74
 
3.90
 
Chile
1 468
 
1 304
 
1.31
 
1.52
 
1 186
 
1 269
 
6.32
 
-0.55
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Colombia
16
 
46
 
-2.72
 
0.68
 
1 767
 
1 735
 
2.81
 
0.49
 
57
 
52
 
12.58
 
-0.48
 
Mexico
3 664
 
3 979
 
-1.29
 
1.24
 
4 645
 
5 222
 
5.52
 
0.58
 
1 224
 
1 109
 
4.20
 
-1.27
 
Paraguay
1 048
 
1 037
 
-4.17
 
1.41
 
1
 
1
 
0.00
 
0.97
 
730
 
437
 
-9.25
 
1.64
 
EUROPE
260 133
 
288 191
 
1.93
 
0.98
 
7 762
 
7 170
 
-0.71
 
-0.37
 
79 653
 
96 960
 
8.47
 
1.50
 
European Union
152 281
 
164 445
 
0.89
 
0.71
 
5 469
 
5 075
 
-2.10
 
-0.37
 
29 913
 
34 939
 
4.84
 
1.33
 
Russia
73 391
 
83 876
 
3.89
 
1.39
 
376
 
347
 
33.48
 
2.09
 
31 285
 
40 186
 
13.65
 
1.60
 
Ukraine
26 244
 
30 647
 
2.75
 
1.29
 
49
 
50
 
49.06
 
0.08
 
16 989
 
19 426
 
10.54
 
1.48
 
AFRICA
26 409
 
31 202
 
2.28
 
1.71
 
47 907
 
60 402
 
3.12
 
2.09
 
1 031
 
931
 
-3.25
 
-1.07
 
Egypt
9 136
 
10 091
 
1.89
 
1.33
 
11 767
 
15 162
 
2.14
 
2.07
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Ethiopia
4 563
 
5 671
 
7.80
 
2.11
 
1 340
 
2 307
 
-0.66
 
7.25
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Nigeria
65
 
76
 
-2.83
 
1.53
 
4 533
 
5 422
 
2.67
 
2.09
 
600
 
509
 
4.14
 
-2.05
 
South Africa
1 614
 
1 844
 
-2.41
 
1.30
 
1 634
 
1 827
 
2.14
 
0.27
 
82
 
128
 
-12.06
 
5.26
 
ASIA
322 664
 
367 308
 
1.76
 
1.19
 
85 021
 
95 306
 
4.61
 
0.98
 
15 564
 
17 283
 
2.21
 
1.79
 
China 1
129 608
 
133 275
 
1.78
 
0.57
 
3 852
 
4 477
 
25.80
 
2.46
 
142
 
200
 
-10.43
 
3.62
 
India
92 401
 
112 058
 
2.20
 
1.29
 
2 758
 
174
 
62.15
 
-18.60
 
631
 
711
 
69.23
 
6.31
 
Indonesia
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
10 136
 
13 754
 
9.28
 
1.93
 
130
 
125
 
24.85
 
-1.89
 
Iran
12 040
 
15 713
 
3.51
 
1.58
 
1 763
 
938
 
-8.07
 
-5.78
 
184
 
431
 
12.24
 
1.41
 
Japan
891
 
925
 
2.60
 
0.44
 
5 675
 
5 419
 
0.65
 
-0.52
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Kazakhstan
14 197
 
16 467
 
0.27
 
1.44
 
68
 
52
 
8.91
 
0.05
 
7 295
 
8 501
 
0.46
 
1.56
 
Korea
35
 
49
 
7.97
 
2.37
 
4 537
 
5 207
 
0.35
 
1.54
 
50
 
54
 
0.00
 
0.67
 
Malaysia
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
1 499
 
1 673
 
3.95
 
0.54
 
108
 
111
 
11.19
 
-0.54
 
Pakistan
25 439
 
31 648
 
1.68
 
2.03
 
13
 
24
 
-37.29
 
1.91
 
750
 
105
 
-2.85
 
-1.91
 
Philippines
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
5 300
 
6 498
 
7.38
 
1.96
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Saudi Arabia
17
 
3
 
-46.34
 
-7.21
 
3 633
 
4 488
 
12.27
 
1.67
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Thailand
1
 
1
 
0.42
 
1.38
 
3 833
 
3 567
 
13.73
 
1.64
 
15
 
13
 
8.48
 
-1.61
 
Turkey
21 567
 
26 223
 
1.27
 
1.94
 
4 571
 
4 027
 
4.95
 
-2.77
 
4 344
 
5 258
 
6.40
 
2.85
 
Viet Nam
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
4 400
 
5 854
 
14.06
 
2.38
 
41
 
44
 
-27.88
 
-2.33
 
OCEANIA
26 727
 
27 585
 
1.06
 
1.14
 
882
 
956
 
4.07
 
0.71
 
18 141
 
19 470
 
1.00
 
1.10
 
Australia
26 299
 
27 038
 
1.07
 
1.09
 
24
 
20
 
8.95
 
0.00
 
18 141
 
19 470
 
1.00
 
1.10
 
New Zealand
427
 
547
 
0.14
 
3.44
 
507
 
555
 
6.63
 
0.43
 
0
 
0
 
-17.96
 
0.00
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
401 190
 
435 639
 
1.16
 
1.01
 
27 230
 
26 748
 
0.86
 
-0.37
 
152 602
 
174 217
 
3.94
 
1.14
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
349 271
 
396 984
 
1.98
 
1.20
 
141 188
 
166 431
 
4.06
 
1.48
 
22 547
 
24 450
 
2.99
 
1.40
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
8 468
 
9 739
 
3.44
 
1.61
 
14 108
 
19 000
 
5.32
 
2.54
 
107
 
69
 
-3.61
 
-1.95
 
OECD 2
292 875
 
311 313
 
0.44
 
0.87
 
32 703
 
33 024
 
1.60
 
-0.29
 
100 275
 
109 203
 
1.92
 
0.90
 
BRICS
302 919
 
337 036
 
2.32
 
1.02
 
15 500
 
15 101
 
7.08
 
0.74
 
32 990
 
42 410
 
11.43
 
1.74
 
..
Not available
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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