1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.13.2 - Wheat projections: Consumption, food

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.13.2Wheat projections: Consumption, food
A.13.2Wheat projections: Consumption, food
  Marketing year
‌‌
CONSUMPTION (kt)
Growth (%) 3
FOOD (kt)
Growth (%) 3
FOOD (kg/cap)
Growth (%) 3
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
726 564
 
823 813
 
1.42
 
0.97
 
496 386
 
547 425
 
1.22
 
0.88
 
66.5
 
65.8
 
0.03
 
-0.09
 
NORTH AMERICA
40 138
 
40 796
 
-0.06
 
0.36
 
28 699
 
29 348
 
0.38
 
0.28
 
80.1
 
75.7
 
-0.38
 
-0.43
 
Canada
8 803
 
8 573
 
1.80
 
0.10
 
2 789
 
2 811
 
-0.04
 
0.11
 
76.9
 
70.7
 
-1.05
 
-0.70
 
United States
31 335
 
32 223
 
-0.55
 
0.44
 
25 910
 
26 537
 
0.43
 
0.30
 
80.4
 
76.3
 
-0.31
 
-0.40
 
LATIN AMERICA
38 020
 
42 809
 
1.34
 
0.94
 
34 285
 
38 208
 
1.48
 
1.02
 
53.8
 
54.4
 
0.34
 
0.16
 
Argentina
5 856
 
6 520
 
2.04
 
0.98
 
5 152
 
5 790
 
1.24
 
1.06
 
117.5
 
120.0
 
0.20
 
0.20
 
Brazil
11 501
 
13 065
 
1.11
 
0.78
 
10 900
 
12 095
 
0.86
 
1.04
 
52.5
 
54.3
 
-0.05
 
0.44
 
Chile
2 432
 
2 574
 
2.13
 
0.37
 
1 942
 
1 947
 
1.16
 
-0.08
 
108.4
 
100.7
 
0.26
 
-0.75
 
Colombia
1 595
 
1 727
 
2.05
 
0.56
 
1 420
 
1 504
 
1.35
 
0.40
 
29.2
 
28.7
 
0.36
 
-0.24
 
Mexico
7 018
 
8 104
 
1.31
 
1.19
 
6 186
 
7 211
 
4.15
 
1.37
 
48.5
 
50.1
 
2.69
 
0.31
 
Paraguay
516
 
599
 
2.58
 
1.41
 
342
 
382
 
1.45
 
1.12
 
50.9
 
50.1
 
0.11
 
-0.01
 
EUROPE
187 291
 
198 347
 
-0.10
 
0.60
 
79 952
 
79 709
 
0.00
 
-0.04
 
107.7
 
107.4
 
-0.11
 
-0.02
 
European Union
128 216
 
134 464
 
-0.11
 
0.56
 
55 779
 
56 267
 
0.11
 
0.01
 
109.8
 
109.8
 
-0.05
 
-0.04
 
Russia
40 560
 
44 101
 
0.36
 
0.66
 
14 660
 
13 723
 
0.14
 
-0.38
 
101.8
 
96.7
 
0.06
 
-0.21
 
Ukraine
10 390
 
11 260
 
-2.73
 
1.06
 
4 699
 
4 991
 
-1.57
 
0.43
 
105.7
 
118.9
 
-1.08
 
0.96
 
AFRICA
73 278
 
90 315
 
3.23
 
1.97
 
61 016
 
75 517
 
2.52
 
2.01
 
49.8
 
47.4
 
-0.09
 
-0.38
 
Egypt
20 917
 
25 178
 
2.96
 
1.74
 
17 717
 
21 423
 
2.24
 
1.71
 
185.2
 
186.6
 
0.11
 
0.09
 
Ethiopia
5 909
 
7 952
 
6.02
 
3.30
 
4 726
 
6 433
 
4.74
 
3.49
 
46.2
 
48.9
 
2.06
 
1.20
 
Nigeria
3 998
 
4 982
 
2.33
 
2.63
 
3 767
 
4 717
 
3.33
 
2.70
 
20.3
 
19.2
 
0.62
 
0.15
 
South Africa
3 266
 
3 541
 
1.01
 
0.64
 
3 193
 
3 462
 
1.23
 
0.64
 
57.0
 
55.0
 
-0.11
 
-0.38
 
ASIA
378 312
 
442 522
 
2.03
 
1.00
 
289 491
 
321 705
 
1.34
 
0.91
 
64.9
 
66.3
 
0.29
 
0.17
 
China 1
115 190
 
137 812
 
0.34
 
0.39
 
87 833
 
90 223
 
0.19
 
0.22
 
62.6
 
62.6
 
-0.34
 
0.02
 
India
97 195
 
108 913
 
3.14
 
1.00
 
79 229
 
89 062
 
1.57
 
1.03
 
59.8
 
60.3
 
0.32
 
0.05
 
Indonesia
9 840
 
13 603
 
8.44
 
1.97
 
6 673
 
8 391
 
4.25
 
1.90
 
25.6
 
29.0
 
2.96
 
0.98
 
Iran
14 820
 
16 214
 
0.78
 
0.93
 
13 403
 
14 689
 
1.30
 
0.79
 
167.0
 
167.5
 
0.07
 
0.05
 
Japan
6 593
 
6 334
 
0.71
 
-0.37
 
5 182
 
5 001
 
0.27
 
-0.31
 
40.6
 
40.6
 
0.36
 
0.03
 
Kazakhstan
6 955
 
7 977
 
-0.53
 
1.58
 
2 555
 
2 807
 
1.14
 
0.82
 
142.1
 
141.1
 
-0.36
 
-0.05
 
Korea
4 389
 
5 188
 
0.94
 
1.55
 
2 430
 
2 506
 
0.52
 
0.28
 
47.8
 
47.8
 
0.12
 
0.01
 
Malaysia
1 425
 
1 560
 
4.64
 
0.71
 
991
 
1 031
 
2.36
 
0.20
 
31.8
 
28.8
 
0.60
 
-1.01
 
Pakistan
25 269
 
31 528
 
1.57
 
2.00
 
24 247
 
30 168
 
2.18
 
2.00
 
125.5
 
129.0
 
0.08
 
0.29
 
Philippines
5 233
 
6 479
 
7.69
 
1.98
 
2 400
 
2 662
 
2.03
 
0.81
 
23.2
 
22.0
 
0.39
 
-0.59
 
Saudi Arabia
3 683
 
4 458
 
3.44
 
1.44
 
3 250
 
3 799
 
3.51
 
1.39
 
100.8
 
99.4
 
0.74
 
-0.06
 
Thailand
3 569
 
3 531
 
14.04
 
1.58
 
1 175
 
1 410
 
3.86
 
0.98
 
17.1
 
20.2
 
3.43
 
0.90
 
Turkey
22 438
 
24 985
 
1.66
 
0.88
 
16 680
 
18 456
 
1.54
 
0.73
 
209.8
 
212.2
 
-0.02
 
0.11
 
Viet Nam
4 059
 
5 784
 
15.62
 
2.39
 
1 508
 
1 977
 
4.19
 
2.54
 
15.9
 
19.0
 
3.06
 
1.65
 
OCEANIA
9 525
 
9 024
 
4.08
 
1.40
 
2 943
 
2 938
 
3.50
 
0.69
 
75.0
 
65.0
 
1.89
 
-0.56
 
Australia
8 235
 
7 544
 
4.28
 
1.36
 
2 217
 
2 146
 
4.62
 
0.63
 
91.9
 
78.3
 
3.07
 
-0.49
 
New Zealand
944
 
1 101
 
4.09
 
1.91
 
396
 
430
 
0.76
 
0.76
 
85.0
 
84.3
 
-0.32
 
-0.05
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
272 891
 
287 968
 
0.14
 
0.65
 
133 519
 
135 337
 
0.35
 
0.15
 
94.9
 
93.0
 
-0.07
 
-0.14
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
453 673
 
535 845
 
2.26
 
1.15
 
362 866
 
412 088
 
1.55
 
1.14
 
59.9
 
60.0
 
0.17
 
0.01
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
22 135
 
28 560
 
4.97
 
2.18
 
17 487
 
22 935
 
3.77
 
2.32
 
22.0
 
22.5
 
1.34
 
0.06
 
OECD 2
223 825
 
234 945
 
0.32
 
0.61
 
121 674
 
125 740
 
0.67
 
0.28
 
92.1
 
90.9
 
0.10
 
-0.12
 
BRICS
267 711
 
307 432
 
1.34
 
0.66
 
195 816
 
208 564
 
0.78
 
0.57
 
62.5
 
62.3
 
-0.06
 
0.01
 
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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