1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.21.1 - Vegetable oil projections: Production and trade

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.21.1Vegetable oil projections: Production and trade
A.21.1Vegetable oil projections: Production and trade
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌PRODUCTION (kt)‌
Growth (%) 3
IMPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
EXPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
189 591
 
234 643
 
4.11
 
1.67
 
77 894
 
96 262
 
4.08
 
1.85
 
76 710
 
96 262
 
3.75
 
1.85
 
NORTH AMERICA
17 057
 
19 399
 
3.75
 
1.23
 
4 695
 
5 139
 
4.11
 
0.46
 
4 584
 
6 026
 
3.17
 
1.95
 
Canada
4 265
 
4 548
 
7.83
 
0.65
 
282
 
285
 
-2.33
 
0.00
 
3 147
 
3 475
 
6.89
 
0.37
 
United States
12 792
 
14 851
 
2.68
 
1.41
 
4 414
 
4 854
 
4.67
 
0.49
 
1 437
 
2 551
 
-2.15
 
4.60
 
LATIN AMERICA
25 557
 
31 977
 
3.82
 
1.81
 
4 686
 
4 795
 
4.23
 
-0.10
 
10 711
 
13 599
 
3.05
 
3.01
 
Argentina
9 226
 
11 387
 
3.21
 
1.92
 
18
 
20
 
6.27
 
0.00
 
5 815
 
7 601
 
0.92
 
3.75
 
Brazil
8 641
 
10 720
 
2.42
 
1.47
 
501
 
515
 
4.65
 
0.00
 
1 458
 
2 142
 
-2.30
 
4.78
 
Chile
104
 
117
 
5.15
 
0.83
 
444
 
536
 
6.04
 
1.83
 
1
 
1
 
-5.39
 
-0.28
 
Colombia
1 719
 
2 387
 
7.70
 
2.44
 
740
 
650
 
12.28
 
-1.99
 
621
 
809
 
15.47
 
2.03
 
Mexico
1 788
 
2 176
 
2.71
 
1.56
 
1 006
 
1 088
 
6.11
 
0.68
 
36
 
36
 
1.41
 
0.00
 
Paraguay
789
 
966
 
11.52
 
1.91
 
13
 
11
 
-0.17
 
-1.61
 
671
 
803
 
17.90
 
1.64
 
EUROPE
27 643
 
31 668
 
4.44
 
1.59
 
13 045
 
11 740
 
2.67
 
-0.75
 
9 882
 
13 406
 
11.56
 
3.31
 
European Union
16 119
 
16 140
 
2.14
 
0.25
 
10 891
 
9 693
 
2.77
 
-0.78
 
1 778
 
1 722
 
10.50
 
0.41
 
Russia
5 400
 
6 307
 
8.24
 
1.96
 
1 036
 
1 048
 
3.15
 
0.00
 
2 487
 
3 221
 
16.29
 
3.28
 
Ukraine
5 831
 
8 907
 
9.41
 
4.29
 
260
 
169
 
-6.61
 
-4.03
 
5 372
 
8 161
 
10.77
 
4.20
 
AFRICA
6 791
 
8 408
 
3.33
 
1.76
 
10 162
 
14 174
 
5.15
 
3.13
 
1 148
 
898
 
-0.58
 
-2.69
 
Egypt
404
 
555
 
1.03
 
1.67
 
2 023
 
2 634
 
3.46
 
2.30
 
171
 
136
 
-5.09
 
-2.25
 
Ethiopia
40
 
48
 
9.84
 
1.69
 
490
 
940
 
30.54
 
5.87
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Nigeria
1 719
 
2 079
 
1.60
 
1.88
 
1 454
 
2 297
 
8.22
 
4.31
 
53
 
47
 
-7.91
 
-2.57
 
South Africa
536
 
674
 
6.17
 
2.14
 
841
 
944
 
2.17
 
1.16
 
36
 
20
 
-14.61
 
-1.13
 
ASIA
111 303
 
141 626
 
4.23
 
1.71
 
44 957
 
60 085
 
4.27
 
2.49
 
49 565
 
61 283
 
2.98
 
1.39
 
China 1
27 066
 
34 018
 
5.87
 
1.70
 
8 207
 
7 101
 
-1.78
 
-1.63
 
173
 
163
 
-4.41
 
0.51
 
India
8 118
 
10 924
 
-0.05
 
2.32
 
15 511
 
25 936
 
8.50
 
4.68
 
65
 
59
 
-3.80
 
-0.82
 
Indonesia
40 559
 
51 538
 
6.61
 
1.80
 
78
 
71
 
0.93
 
0.04
 
28 214
 
35 763
 
5.79
 
1.65
 
Iran
557
 
714
 
9.37
 
1.09
 
1 287
 
1 689
 
0.49
 
1.87
 
118
 
137
 
-1.74
 
-1.84
 
Japan
1 553
 
1 534
 
0.60
 
-0.17
 
831
 
924
 
1.63
 
0.40
 
4
 
4
 
10.15
 
0.00
 
Kazakhstan
239
 
360
 
3.74
 
3.05
 
108
 
116
 
2.01
 
-0.64
 
47
 
52
 
31.11
 
0.65
 
Korea
233
 
239
 
1.93
 
0.40
 
1 010
 
1 023
 
4.42
 
-0.79
 
3
 
3
 
-9.24
 
0.00
 
Malaysia
21 360
 
27 123
 
1.27
 
1.44
 
1 276
 
1 110
 
-5.31
 
-1.33
 
17 990
 
22 198
 
0.01
 
1.35
 
Pakistan
1 851
 
2 404
 
2.39
 
1.55
 
3 210
 
4 469
 
6.22
 
2.59
 
88
 
61
 
-2.00
 
-2.47
 
Philippines
1 627
 
2 134
 
-1.07
 
2.14
 
1 134
 
1 488
 
13.42
 
1.49
 
807
 
751
 
-2.40
 
-1.47
 
Saudi Arabia
110
 
154
 
77.48
 
1.09
 
627
 
877
 
10.45
 
3.07
 
1
 
1
 
-28.73
 
-0.41
 
Thailand
2 970
 
4 109
 
6.26
 
2.17
 
315
 
264
 
19.87
 
-1.56
 
172
 
265
 
-7.53
 
1.52
 
Turkey
1 758
 
2 266
 
5.69
 
1.39
 
1 660
 
1 605
 
8.50
 
0.14
 
629
 
636
 
13.28
 
-0.14
 
Viet Nam
566
 
753
 
16.71
 
2.34
 
956
 
1 482
 
6.08
 
3.99
 
155
 
109
 
33.46
 
-3.83
 
OCEANIA
1 240
 
1 565
 
1.55
 
2.23
 
349
 
328
 
4.88
 
-0.81
 
820
 
1 051
 
1.98
 
2.13
 
Australia
471
 
614
 
2.25
 
3.05
 
219
 
197
 
7.06
 
-1.26
 
155
 
223
 
7.14
 
3.70
 
New Zealand
5
 
5
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
96
 
103
 
3.38
 
0.39
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
48 338
 
55 160
 
3.95
 
1.42
 
20 260
 
19 611
 
3.05
 
-0.28
 
14 768
 
19 797
 
8.16
 
2.86
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
141 253
 
179 482
 
4.17
 
1.75
 
57 635
 
76 651
 
4.47
 
2.48
 
61 941
 
76 465
 
2.90
 
1.61
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
3 020
 
3 888
 
3.52
 
1.97
 
5 973
 
9 039
 
7.07
 
3.63
 
409
 
287
 
4.76
 
-3.77
 
OECD 2
39 337
 
42 744
 
2.92
 
0.83
 
21 521
 
20 964
 
3.84
 
-0.21
 
7 296
 
8 757
 
5.39
 
1.47
 
BRICS
49 762
 
62 643
 
4.27
 
1.79
 
26 096
 
35 544
 
3.83
 
2.74
 
4 219
 
5 605
 
4.76
 
3.66
 
..
Not available
Note: Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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