OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027
The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.
World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.
Sugar
After two consecutive seasons of supply shortage, global sugar production rebounded in the 2017 marketing year (October 2017-September 2018), with growth close to that recorded five years ago. Good weather conditions in India and Thailand, increased production in the People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”) and the end of production quotas in the European Union are the main reasons for this increase. But the largest producer, Brazil, experienced a decline in sugar output as processing sugarcane into ethanol became more profitable than sugar production.
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