OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027
The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.
World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018
A.18.1 | Soybean projections: Production and trade | ||||||||||||
A.18.1 | Soybean projections: Production and trade | ||||||||||||
Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | PRODUCTION (kt) | Growth (%) 3 | IMPORTS (kt) | Growth (%) 3 | EXPORTS (kt) | Growth (%) 3 | ||||||
Average 2015-17est | 2027 | 2008-17 | 2018-27 | Average 2015-17est | 2027 | 2008-17 | 2018-27 | Average 2015-17est | 2027 | 2008-17 | 2018-27 | ||
| WORLD | 337 111 | 406 773 | 4.85 | 1.48 | 144 160 | 174 935 | 7.75 | 1.29 | 146 781 | 174 935 | 7.70 | 1.29 |
| NORTH AMERICA | 121 337 | 140 613 | 4.50 | 1.23 | 1 022 | 928 | 6.04 | -0.07 | 60 417 | 71 015 | 6.08 | 0.89 |
| Canada | 6 902 | 9 523 | 9.25 | 1.42 | 350 | 250 | 0.63 | -0.02 | 4 647 | 6 917 | 11.27 | 1.60 |
| United States | 114 434 | 131 090 | 4.26 | 1.22 | 671 | 678 | 9.44 | -0.09 | 55 770 | 64 098 | 5.73 | 0.81 |
| LATIN AMERICA | 179 002 | 215 968 | 5.75 | 1.57 | 6 995 | 7 999 | 3.75 | 0.91 | 82 534 | 98 522 | 8.72 | 1.52 |
| Argentina | 56 739 | 66 379 | 2.56 | 1.97 | 0 | 0 | .. | .. | 13 665 | 14 379 | 1.76 | 2.89 |
| Brazil | 105 937 | 128 878 | 7.36 | 1.31 | 410 | 410 | 24.54 | 0.00 | 60 089 | 73 202 | 11.63 | 1.26 |
| Chile | 0 | 0 | .. | .. | 383 | 439 | 9.71 | 0.75 | 2 | 2 | 0.00 | -0.75 |
| Colombia | 70 | 88 | 0.70 | 2.00 | 850 | 1 251 | 9.78 | 2.70 | 40 | 15 | -13.65 | -2.63 |
| Mexico | 399 | 529 | 14.34 | 1.50 | 3 993 | 4 692 | 1.83 | 1.39 | 0 | 0 | .. | .. |
| Paraguay | 9 800 | 12 338 | 8.32 | 1.70 | 0 | 0 | .. | .. | 5 717 | 7 139 | 5.47 | 1.53 |
| EUROPE | 10 355 | 13 225 | 16.57 | 1.66 | 16 607 | 16 260 | 2.17 | 0.16 | 3 335 | 4 933 | 31.42 | 2.88 |
| European Union | 2 520 | 2 923 | 14.86 | 1.33 | 14 058 | 13 960 | 0.96 | 0.45 | 138 | 71 | 12.44 | 0.16 |
| Russia | 3 367 | 4 822 | 19.25 | 1.96 | 2 087 | 1 823 | 15.81 | -1.88 | 589 | 1 179 | 120.30 | 5.23 |
| Ukraine | 4 003 | 5 014 | 19.74 | 1.73 | 3 | 4 | 17.83 | 0.11 | 2 601 | 3 676 | 29.63 | 2.28 |
| AFRICA | 2 273 | 2 936 | 5.53 | 2.69 | 3 643 | 5 283 | 6.14 | 1.64 | 43 | 52 | -13.03 | -0.31 |
| Egypt | 40 | 47 | 3.93 | 1.56 | 1 767 | 2 385 | 1.82 | 1.38 | 0 | 0 | .. | .. |
| Ethiopia | 70 | 91 | 23.48 | 2.66 | 25 | 51 | 37.91 | 7.18 | 0 | 0 | .. | .. |
| Nigeria | 630 | 746 | -0.69 | 1.72 | 0 | 0 | .. | .. | 1 | 1 | -35.89 | -4.80 |
| South Africa | 1 051 | 1 472 | 13.44 | 3.60 | 170 | 350 | 59.01 | 3.14 | 14 | 24 | -18.70 | -0.63 |
| ASIA | 24 095 | 33 954 | -1.29 | 1.86 | 115 892 | 144 454 | 9.18 | 1.44 | 448 | 394 | 0.53 | -0.22 |
| China 1 | 13 019 | 19 052 | -2.06 | 1.83 | 90 742 | 112 817 | 9.68 | 1.52 | 183 | 200 | -6.46 | 0.00 |
| India | 8 700 | 11 954 | -0.57 | 2.04 | 70 | 60 | 76.95 | -0.86 | 85 | 48 | 8.13 | 1.62 |
| Indonesia | 751 | 1 023 | -1.93 | 1.39 | 2 341 | 2 402 | 5.66 | 0.56 | 2 | 2 | -45.34 | -0.05 |
| Iran | 178 | 200 | -1.79 | 1.15 | 1 946 | 2 346 | 15.36 | 1.02 | 80 | 63 | 71.21 | -1.01 |
| Japan | 242 | 272 | 0.09 | 1.01 | 3 226 | 3 015 | -1.05 | -0.72 | 0 | 0 | .. | .. |
| Kazakhstan | 220 | 261 | 11.95 | 1.35 | 10 | 7 | -19.92 | 0.43 | 0 | 0 | .. | .. |
| Korea | 96 | 116 | -3.35 | 0.51 | 1 327 | 1 347 | 1.35 | 0.38 | 0 | 0 | .. | .. |
| Malaysia | 0 | 0 | .. | .. | 807 | 1 133 | 5.76 | 1.26 | 30 | 24 | 10.62 | -1.24 |
| Pakistan | 4 | 4 | -9.63 | 1.02 | 1 533 | 2 546 | 30.85 | 2.36 | 0 | 0 | .. | .. |
| Philippines | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 2.16 | 130 | 1 022 | 11.67 | 6.97 | 0 | 0 | .. | .. |
| Saudi Arabia | 0 | 0 | .. | .. | 600 | 844 | 26.58 | 1.09 | 0 | 0 | .. | .. |
| Thailand | 56 | 67 | -14.58 | 1.68 | 2 802 | 3 561 | 6.97 | 0.96 | 13 | 17 | -2.38 | -0.95 |
| Turkey | 153 | 192 | 17.78 | 2.01 | 2 450 | 3 185 | 9.50 | 1.87 | 19 | 8 | -21.08 | -1.84 |
| Viet Nam | 148 | 173 | -7.63 | 1.35 | 1 684 | 2 005 | 36.08 | 1.42 | 1 | 1 | -2.37 | -0.18 |
| OCEANIA | 49 | 77 | -2.65 | 3.29 | 2 | 12 | -0.46 | 12.87 | 5 | 20 | 8.66 | 11.94 |
| Australia | 49 | 77 | -2.65 | 3.29 | 1 | 11 | -0.84 | 15.31 | 5 | 20 | 8.66 | 11.94 |
| New Zealand | 0 | 0 | .. | .. | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | .. | .. |
| DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | 133 257 | 155 924 | 5.16 | 1.29 | 21 800 | 21 307 | 1.87 | 0.08 | 63 770 | 75 991 | 6.64 | 1.01 |
| DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | 203 854 | 250 849 | 4.64 | 1.61 | 122 360 | 153 628 | 9.15 | 1.47 | 83 011 | 98 944 | 8.63 | 1.52 |
| LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC) | 559 | 680 | 0.43 | 1.98 | 1 339 | 2 427 | 39.67 | 2.40 | 13 | 10 | 1.80 | -1.88 |
| OECD 2 | 124 801 | 144 727 | 4.65 | 1.24 | 27 568 | 28 662 | 1.70 | 0.59 | 60 580 | 71 116 | 6.10 | 0.89 |
| BRICS | 132 073 | 166 178 | 5.63 | 1.46 | 93 478 | 115 460 | 9.87 | 1.45 | 60 961 | 74 652 | 11.59 | 1.31 |
Not available | |||||||||||||
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions. Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated. | |||||||||||||
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate. | |||||||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||||||
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary). | |||||||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |