OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.
World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018
A.18.2 | Soybean projections: Consumption, domestic crush | ||||||||
A.18.2 | Soybean projections: Consumption, domestic crush | ||||||||
Marketing year | |||||||||
| | CONSUMPTION (kt) | Growth (%) 3 | DOMESTIC CRUSH (kt) | Growth (%) 3 | ||||
Average 2015-17est | 2027 | 2008-17 | 2018-27 | Average 2015-17est | 2027 | 2008-17 | 2018-27 | ||
| WORLD | 332 778 | 406 445 | 4.89 | 1.46 | 297 540 | 367 771 | 4.96 | 1.54 |
| NORTH AMERICA | 59 430 | 70 516 | 2.35 | 1.42 | 53 924 | 64 643 | 1.93 | 1.54 |
| Canada | 2 625 | 2 856 | 5.42 | 0.86 | 1 896 | 2 129 | 5.12 | 1.17 |
| United States | 56 805 | 67 660 | 2.23 | 1.44 | 52 028 | 62 514 | 1.83 | 1.55 |
| LATIN AMERICA | 103 702 | 125 409 | 3.70 | 1.56 | 95 721 | 115 904 | 3.73 | 1.56 |
| Argentina | 43 690 | 51 996 | 3.78 | 1.74 | 42 686 | 50 926 | 3.87 | 1.77 |
| Brazil | 45 924 | 56 084 | 2.81 | 1.37 | 40 823 | 49 963 | 2.80 | 1.34 |
| Chile | 383 | 437 | 9.65 | 0.76 | 383 | 437 | 9.66 | 0.76 |
| Colombia | 890 | 1 322 | 8.75 | 2.80 | 886 | 1 322 | 8.84 | 2.80 |
| Mexico | 4 223 | 5 221 | 2.05 | 1.31 | 3 988 | 4 973 | 2.13 | 1.35 |
| Paraguay | 4 150 | 5 175 | 12.88 | 1.99 | 3 974 | 4 915 | 13.00 | 1.99 |
| EUROPE | 23 675 | 24 558 | 4.62 | 0.41 | 21 044 | 22 344 | 4.60 | 0.49 |
| European Union | 16 520 | 16 816 | 2.35 | 0.57 | 14 425 | 15 125 | 1.94 | 0.68 |
| Russia | 4 815 | 5 469 | 16.06 | 0.01 | 4 726 | 5 390 | 15.85 | 0.02 |
| Ukraine | 1 421 | 1 341 | 11.65 | 0.40 | 1 280 | 1 200 | 14.22 | 0.37 |
| AFRICA | 5 793 | 8 157 | 6.30 | 2.04 | 5 092 | 7 190 | 6.80 | 1.91 |
| Egypt | 1 797 | 2 430 | 2.06 | 1.39 | 1 791 | 2 420 | 2.03 | 1.39 |
| Ethiopia | 94 | 142 | 25.77 | 4.08 | 59 | 94 | 27.54 | 4.62 |
| Nigeria | 634 | 745 | -0.02 | 1.73 | 317 | 298 | 0.07 | -0.44 |
| South Africa | 1 153 | 1 793 | 18.22 | 3.58 | 1 055 | 1 653 | 18.46 | 3.74 |
| ASIA | 140 131 | 177 735 | 7.20 | 1.53 | 121 718 | 157 627 | 7.79 | 1.67 |
| China 1 | 104 144 | 131 419 | 8.39 | 1.57 | 89 764 | 115 839 | 9.15 | 1.74 |
| India | 8 818 | 11 961 | -0.63 | 2.03 | 7 213 | 9 847 | -1.94 | 2.00 |
| Indonesia | 3 127 | 3 422 | 3.69 | 0.80 | 2 420 | 2 709 | 5.39 | 0.98 |
| Iran | 2 021 | 2 481 | 11.59 | 1.10 | 2 014 | 2 473 | 11.90 | 1.10 |
| Japan | 3 443 | 3 290 | -1.28 | -0.60 | 2 678 | 2 541 | -1.14 | -0.73 |
| Kazakhstan | 233 | 268 | 9.83 | 1.39 | 122 | 131 | 5.31 | 0.70 |
| Korea | 1 414 | 1 463 | 0.87 | 0.39 | 1 004 | 1 036 | 1.61 | 0.49 |
| Malaysia | 777 | 1 108 | 5.40 | 1.40 | 777 | 1 108 | 5.40 | 1.40 |
| Pakistan | 1 497 | 2 546 | 29.94 | 2.40 | 1 497 | 2 546 | 30.03 | 2.40 |
| Philippines | 134 | 1 023 | 12.48 | 6.96 | 130 | 1 022 | 12.12 | 6.97 |
| Saudi Arabia | 598 | 844 | 26.47 | 1.10 | 598 | 844 | 26.47 | 1.10 |
| Thailand | 2 842 | 3 609 | 5.76 | 1.01 | 2 820 | 3 609 | 6.30 | 1.01 |
| Turkey | 2 651 | 3 365 | 9.22 | 1.92 | 2 550 | 3 262 | 9.45 | 1.95 |
| Viet Nam | 1 805 | 2 172 | 21.17 | 1.42 | 1 732 | 2 097 | 27.34 | 1.48 |
| OCEANIA | 47 | 70 | -3.05 | 2.70 | 41 | 64 | -3.37 | 3.00 |
| Australia | 46 | 69 | -3.10 | 2.75 | 41 | 64 | -3.37 | 3.00 |
| New Zealand | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | .. | .. |
| DEVELOPED COUNTRIES | 88 725 | 101 232 | 2.87 | 1.12 | 79 603 | 92 111 | 2.58 | 1.23 |
| DEVELOPING COUNTRIES | 244 053 | 305 213 | 5.72 | 1.57 | 217 936 | 275 660 | 5.97 | 1.64 |
| LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC) | 1 864 | 3 095 | 15.98 | 2.36 | 1 601 | 2 756 | 22.08 | 2.24 |
| OECD 2 | 89 199 | 102 265 | 2.31 | 1.18 | 80 062 | 93 150 | 2.02 | 1.30 |
| BRICS | 164 854 | 206 726 | 6.16 | 1.51 | 143 581 | 182 693 | 6.46 | 1.60 |
Not available | |||||||||
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions. Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated. | |||||||||
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate. | |||||||||
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. | |||||||||
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary). | |||||||||
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en |