1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.29.1 - Sheep meat projections: Production and trade

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.29.1Sheep meat projections: Production and trade
A.29.1Sheep meat projections: Production and trade
  Calendar year
‌‌
PRODUCTION (kt cwe) 3
Growth (%) 4
IMPORTS (kt cwe) 5
Growth (%) 4
EXPORTS (kt cwe) 5
Growth (%) 4
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
14 417
 
17 430
 
1.31
 
1.79
 
968
 
1 052
 
1.70
 
0.78
 
1 058
 
1 193
 
1.44
 
1.32
 
NORTH AMERICA
94
 
99
 
-0.95
 
0.63
 
119
 
115
 
2.34
 
-0.28
 
13
 
13
 
9.26
 
0.04
 
Canada
17
 
16
 
1.15
 
0.36
 
21
 
18
 
-0.65
 
-1.34
 
0
 
0
 
-6.88
 
0.36
 
United States
77
 
83
 
-1.36
 
0.69
 
98
 
97
 
3.11
 
-0.06
 
13
 
13
 
9.71
 
0.04
 
LATIN AMERICA
387
 
424
 
-0.14
 
0.80
 
26
 
21
 
-5.76
 
-1.95
 
16
 
19
 
-8.36
 
0.84
 
Argentina
62
 
68
 
1.47
 
0.78
 
0
 
0
 
0.26
 
0.00
 
2
 
2
 
-17.20
 
0.25
 
Brazil
118
 
128
 
1.11
 
0.63
 
6
 
5
 
-0.01
 
-0.31
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Chile
15
 
14
 
-1.20
 
-1.36
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
5
 
4
 
-0.94
 
-4.36
 
Colombia
10
 
10
 
-1.60
 
0.04
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Mexico
60
 
68
 
1.75
 
1.28
 
11
 
9
 
-9.32
 
-2.00
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
2.37
 
Paraguay
4
 
5
 
1.85
 
1.63
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
EUROPE
1 301
 
1 406
 
0.16
 
0.40
 
207
 
221
 
-4.44
 
0.62
 
31
 
31
 
14.22
 
-1.40
 
European Union
938
 
993
 
-0.85
 
0.23
 
195
 
212
 
-4.19
 
0.76
 
24
 
26
 
20.23
 
-0.48
 
Russia
215
 
251
 
2.60
 
0.86
 
4
 
1
 
-13.59
 
-10.95
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
Ukraine
15
 
19
 
-3.30
 
2.59
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
AFRICA
2 966
 
3 737
 
0.69
 
2.38
 
32
 
36
 
-4.62
 
1.55
 
32
 
35
 
3.31
 
1.70
 
Egypt
129
 
143
 
-1.19
 
1.00
 
1
 
0
 
-17.69
 
-0.04
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Ethiopia
162
 
223
 
1.13
 
3.29
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
17
 
21
 
10.30
 
3.99
 
Nigeria
383
 
475
 
-0.44
 
2.43
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
South Africa
200
 
234
 
2.17
 
1.46
 
9
 
9
 
-6.29
 
0.49
 
1
 
1
 
17.86
 
-0.07
 
ASIA
8 478
 
10 367
 
2.03
 
1.88
 
556
 
629
 
6.83
 
1.10
 
38
 
16
 
-4.92
 
-7.97
 
China 1
4 542
 
5 601
 
2.43
 
1.90
 
226
 
238
 
21.86
 
-0.11
 
2
 
4
 
-20.27
 
0.12
 
India
738
 
827
 
-0.95
 
1.24
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
22
 
6
 
-1.11
 
-12.34
 
Indonesia
106
 
135
 
-1.58
 
2.52
 
3
 
14
 
17.70
 
17.62
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Iran
310
 
351
 
0.77
 
1.18
 
3
 
7
 
11.90
 
3.97
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Japan
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
20
 
17
 
-8.53
 
-2.28
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
Kazakhstan
162
 
187
 
2.49
 
1.40
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
0
 
0
 
-12.61
 
-6.83
 
Korea
1
 
1
 
-4.24
 
0.00
 
12
 
11
 
15.81
 
0.94
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Malaysia
1
 
1
 
1.01
 
1.15
 
34
 
44
 
8.88
 
2.30
 
0
 
0
 
1.53
 
..
 
Pakistan
477
 
596
 
1.64
 
2.23
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
8
 
1
 
-2.68
 
-23.61
 
Philippines
57
 
68
 
0.60
 
1.76
 
1
 
3
 
5.72
 
15.01
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Saudi Arabia
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
51
 
52
 
-0.79
 
1.03
 
2
 
1
 
-4.48
 
-1.02
 
Thailand
2
 
2
 
2.61
 
1.08
 
2
 
2
 
10.95
 
2.38
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Turkey
380
 
471
 
3.70
 
2.07
 
1
 
1
 
6.57
 
-6.11
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Viet Nam
8
 
8
 
-1.20
 
0.28
 
1
 
5
 
-17.50
 
15.33
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
OCEANIA
1 191
 
1 396
 
0.14
 
1.48
 
28
 
29
 
-5.46
 
0.95
 
927
 
1 079
 
1.71
 
1.66
 
Australia
735
 
889
 
1.64
 
1.72
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
..
 
463
 
608
 
4.43
 
2.45
 
New Zealand
455
 
506
 
-1.96
 
1.07
 
5
 
4
 
-3.45
 
0.00
 
464
 
471
 
-0.58
 
0.72
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
3 502
 
4 045
 
0.95
 
1.23
 
362
 
373
 
-2.93
 
0.28
 
974
 
1 124
 
2.07
 
1.53
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
10 915
 
13 385
 
1.44
 
1.96
 
606
 
679
 
5.42
 
1.06
 
84
 
69
 
-3.83
 
-1.67
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
1 320
 
1 719
 
1.93
 
2.66
 
4
 
6
 
-2.92
 
2.56
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
OECD 2
2 721
 
3 086
 
0.21
 
1.08
 
372
 
382
 
-2.48
 
0.28
 
969
 
1 121
 
2.02
 
1.55
 
BRICS
5 813
 
7 042
 
1.92
 
1.75
 
244
 
253
 
15.62
 
-0.18
 
25
 
11
 
-4.59
 
-8.21
 
..
Not available
Note: Calendar year; except year ending 30 September for New Zealand.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Gross indigenous production.
4.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
5.
Excludes trade of live animals.
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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