1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.29.2 - Sheep meat projections: Consumption, food

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.29.2Sheep meat projections: Consumption, food
A.29.2Sheep meat projections: Consumption, food
  Calendar year
‌‌
CONSUMPTION (kt cwe)
Growth (%) 3
FOOD (kg rwe/cap) 4
Growth (%) 3
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
14 436
 
17 410
 
1.47
 
1.78
 
1.7
 
1.8
 
0.28
 
0.79
 
NORTH AMERICA
193
 
195
 
0.37
 
0.14
 
0.5
 
0.4
 
-0.39
 
-0.57
 
Canada
37
 
34
 
-0.33
 
-0.58
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
-1.35
 
-1.39
 
United States
156
 
160
 
0.55
 
0.31
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
-0.19
 
-0.39
 
LATIN AMERICA
403
 
433
 
-0.07
 
0.63
 
0.6
 
0.5
 
-1.19
 
-0.22
 
Argentina
60
 
66
 
2.92
 
0.80
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.87
 
-0.06
 
Brazil
125
 
134
 
0.97
 
0.60
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.06
 
0.00
 
Chile
10
 
10
 
-1.11
 
-0.05
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
-1.99
 
-0.72
 
Colombia
10
 
10
 
-1.77
 
0.05
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
-2.73
 
-0.59
 
Mexico
75
 
83
 
-0.62
 
0.79
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
-2.01
 
-0.27
 
Paraguay
4
 
5
 
1.84
 
1.63
 
0.5
 
0.6
 
0.50
 
0.50
 
EUROPE
1 428
 
1 562
 
-1.18
 
0.63
 
1.7
 
1.9
 
-1.28
 
0.64
 
European Union
1 061
 
1 148
 
-2.30
 
0.58
 
1.8
 
2.0
 
-2.46
 
0.52
 
Russia
219
 
250
 
2.18
 
0.67
 
1.3
 
1.5
 
2.09
 
0.83
 
Ukraine
15
 
19
 
-3.34
 
2.61
 
0.3
 
0.4
 
-2.86
 
3.15
 
AFRICA
2 898
 
3 698
 
0.56
 
2.48
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
-2.00
 
0.09
 
Egypt
129
 
143
 
-1.36
 
1.00
 
1.2
 
1.1
 
-3.42
 
-0.60
 
Ethiopia
145
 
201
 
0.46
 
3.22
 
1.2
 
1.3
 
-2.11
 
0.93
 
Nigeria
387
 
479
 
-0.42
 
2.39
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
-3.03
 
-0.15
 
South Africa
223
 
255
 
2.44
 
1.35
 
3.5
 
3.6
 
1.07
 
0.33
 
ASIA
9 225
 
11 231
 
2.48
 
1.84
 
1.8
 
2.0
 
1.42
 
1.09
 
China 1
4 767
 
5 835
 
2.99
 
1.81
 
3.0
 
3.6
 
2.44
 
1.61
 
India
706
 
811
 
-0.87
 
1.45
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
-2.09
 
0.48
 
Indonesia
109
 
149
 
-1.21
 
3.35
 
0.4
 
0.5
 
-2.43
 
2.42
 
Iran
298
 
349
 
1.63
 
1.50
 
3.3
 
3.5
 
0.40
 
0.75
 
Japan
20
 
17
 
-8.53
 
-2.28
 
0.1
 
0.1
 
-8.44
 
-1.94
 
Kazakhstan
162
 
187
 
2.48
 
1.40
 
7.9
 
8.3
 
0.97
 
0.53
 
Korea
13
 
12
 
12.23
 
0.86
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
11.78
 
0.58
 
Malaysia
36
 
46
 
8.38
 
2.19
 
1.0
 
1.1
 
6.51
 
0.96
 
Pakistan
469
 
596
 
1.74
 
2.34
 
2.1
 
2.2
 
-0.34
 
0.62
 
Philippines
58
 
71
 
0.68
 
2.04
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
-0.94
 
0.62
 
Saudi Arabia
188
 
201
 
3.98
 
0.65
 
5.1
 
4.6
 
1.20
 
-0.79
 
Thailand
3
 
4
 
5.84
 
1.72
 
0.0
 
0.1
 
..
 
..
 
Turkey
381
 
472
 
3.53
 
2.06
 
4.2
 
4.8
 
1.95
 
1.43
 
Viet Nam
9
 
13
 
-5.43
 
3.72
 
0.1
 
0.1
 
..
 
2.78
 
OCEANIA
289
 
291
 
-2.06
 
0.42
 
6.5
 
5.7
 
-3.58
 
-0.82
 
Australia
235
 
246
 
-0.94
 
0.42
 
8.6
 
7.9
 
-2.41
 
-0.71
 
New Zealand
31
 
20
 
-4.34
 
-0.26
 
5.8
 
3.4
 
-5.36
 
-1.06
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
2 846
 
3 210
 
0.23
 
1.06
 
1.8
 
1.9
 
-0.18
 
0.77
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
11 590
 
14 200
 
1.79
 
1.94
 
1.7
 
1.8
 
0.41
 
0.81
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
1 274
 
1 701
 
1.87
 
2.85
 
1.4
 
1.5
 
-0.50
 
0.58
 
OECD 2
2 075
 
2 263
 
-0.93
 
0.78
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
-1.49
 
0.39
 
BRICS
6 039
 
7 284
 
2.38
 
1.69
 
1.7
 
1.9
 
1.52
 
1.13
 
..
Not available
Note: Calendar year; except year ending 30 September for New Zealand.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
4.
Per capita consumption expressed in retail weight. Carcass weight to retail weight conversion factors of 0.7 for beef and veal, 0.78 for pigmeat and 0.88 for both sheep meat and poultry meat.
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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