1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.16.1 - Rice projections: Production and trade

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.16.1Rice projections: Production and trade
A.16.1Rice projections: Production and trade
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌PRODUCTION (kt)‌
Growth (%) 3
IMPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
EXPORTS (kt)
Growth (%) 3
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
498 327
 
562 323
 
1.15
 
1.08
 
44 911
 
56 471
 
5.33
 
2.13
 
45 161
 
54 428
 
5.81
 
2.22
 
NORTH AMERICA
6 266
 
7 297
 
-1.04
 
0.75
 
1 137
 
1 272
 
2.40
 
1.12
 
3 425
 
3 914
 
0.22
 
1.38
 
Canada
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
369
 
446
 
0.02
 
1.98
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
United States
6 266
 
7 297
 
-1.04
 
0.75
 
767
 
826
 
3.70
 
0.69
 
3 425
 
3 914
 
0.22
 
1.38
 
LATIN AMERICA
18 507
 
21 004
 
0.47
 
1.26
 
4 142
 
4 466
 
2.65
 
0.45
 
3 228
 
3 789
 
4.14
 
0.82
 
Argentina
979
 
1 289
 
1.13
 
3.21
 
8
 
8
 
-0.62
 
0.00
 
434
 
681
 
-2.00
 
4.74
 
Brazil
8 019
 
8 236
 
-0.62
 
0.65
 
630
 
664
 
1.93
 
-1.17
 
806
 
872
 
3.94
 
-0.06
 
Chile
104
 
99
 
3.30
 
1.44
 
142
 
153
 
2.00
 
0.53
 
2
 
3
 
25.61
 
-0.21
 
Colombia
1 731
 
2 237
 
1.32
 
1.13
 
217
 
0
 
27.47
 
-70.24
 
1
 
2
 
15.34
 
9.89
 
Mexico
164
 
145
 
0.90
 
-0.70
 
710
 
1 044
 
-2.39
 
2.21
 
29
 
84
 
2.94
 
0.00
 
Paraguay
618
 
801
 
22.41
 
1.45
 
1
 
2
 
6.61
 
0.23
 
488
 
667
 
25.07
 
1.63
 
EUROPE
2 911
 
2 967
 
2.59
 
0.73
 
1 764
 
1 874
 
3.61
 
0.80
 
419
 
475
 
7.67
 
1.10
 
European Union
1 795
 
1 717
 
0.37
 
0.03
 
1 244
 
1 339
 
4.62
 
1.11
 
256
 
251
 
8.29
 
0.37
 
Russia
1 057
 
1 179
 
8.82
 
1.83
 
216
 
210
 
1.35
 
-0.15
 
154
 
212
 
7.40
 
2.10
 
Ukraine
43
 
52
 
-10.15
 
1.13
 
70
 
85
 
1.76
 
0.98
 
1
 
2
 
-10.25
 
-0.55
 
AFRICA
19 846
 
25 963
 
3.14
 
2.33
 
15 227
 
24 826
 
6.14
 
4.46
 
598
 
384
 
0.44
 
-3.41
 
Egypt
4 273
 
5 015
 
0.99
 
1.49
 
73
 
34
 
4.46
 
1.71
 
271
 
144
 
-3.16
 
-4.71
 
Ethiopia
96
 
128
 
8.02
 
2.52
 
283
 
538
 
30.78
 
5.06
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Nigeria
3 010
 
3 813
 
4.52
 
1.05
 
2 490
 
4 564
 
3.53
 
5.69
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
South Africa
2
 
2
 
0.00
 
1.34
 
853
 
946
 
3.57
 
0.64
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
ASIA
450 342
 
504 335
 
1.11
 
1.02
 
22 118
 
23 464
 
5.82
 
0.60
 
37 216
 
45 310
 
6.73
 
2.50
 
China 1
142 448
 
144 540
 
0.95
 
0.27
 
6 133
 
5 159
 
45.28
 
0.37
 
768
 
955
 
1.54
 
2.71
 
India
108 005
 
128 276
 
1.72
 
1.57
 
1
 
1
 
28.22
 
0.41
 
10 838
 
12 100
 
22.54
 
2.70
 
Indonesia
45 984
 
53 682
 
2.06
 
1.28
 
983
 
415
 
6.69
 
1.78
 
1
 
1
 
-0.18
 
-0.33
 
Iran
1 789
 
2 106
 
3.74
 
1.47
 
1 400
 
1 804
 
1.12
 
2.28
 
1
 
1
 
-4.63
 
-0.17
 
Japan
7 640
 
7 610
 
-0.31
 
0.10
 
780
 
784
 
-0.10
 
0.10
 
96
 
109
 
-7.84
 
1.38
 
Kazakhstan
300
 
385
 
5.73
 
1.04
 
22
 
16
 
9.51
 
0.49
 
70
 
98
 
19.10
 
-0.49
 
Korea
4 165
 
3 678
 
-1.68
 
-1.10
 
402
 
461
 
4.14
 
0.70
 
7
 
10
 
1.56
 
0.00
 
Malaysia
1 786
 
2 135
 
1.91
 
1.16
 
908
 
1 109
 
-2.30
 
2.10
 
41
 
4
 
69.78
 
-0.90
 
Pakistan
7 022
 
8 475
 
1.75
 
1.37
 
10
 
8
 
-11.60
 
-0.01
 
4 022
 
4 597
 
2.28
 
0.97
 
Philippines
12 086
 
14 807
 
1.83
 
1.42
 
1 307
 
1 581
 
-4.58
 
2.86
 
1
 
1
 
7.15
 
-0.20
 
Saudi Arabia
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
1 350
 
1 766
 
0.80
 
2.51
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
Thailand
20 670
 
27 489
 
-0.88
 
1.84
 
247
 
284
 
-6.08
 
1.81
 
10 490
 
12 869
 
3.04
 
3.44
 
Turkey
548
 
630
 
1.93
 
1.47
 
259
 
274
 
1.55
 
-1.06
 
48
 
43
 
1.47
 
1.07
 
Viet Nam
28 405
 
32 585
 
1.47
 
1.31
 
537
 
686
 
-1.59
 
2.66
 
6 968
 
8 924
 
2.39
 
2.57
 
OCEANIA
455
 
757
 
18.58
 
2.99
 
523
 
569
 
0.07
 
0.73
 
275
 
555
 
18.55
 
2.57
 
Australia
446
 
747
 
20.27
 
3.01
 
158
 
152
 
-4.62
 
0.13
 
275
 
555
 
18.75
 
2.58
 
New Zealand
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
47
 
57
 
2.30
 
1.59
 
0
 
0
 
..
 
..
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
17 875
 
19 417
 
0.19
 
0.60
 
5 186
 
5 627
 
2.30
 
0.78
 
4 285
 
5 151
 
1.18
 
1.43
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
480 451
 
542 906
 
1.19
 
1.10
 
39 725
 
50 844
 
5.78
 
2.29
 
40 877
 
49 277
 
6.40
 
2.30
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
74 730
 
85 983
 
0.95
 
1.34
 
9 762
 
16 259
 
8.91
 
3.18
 
4 111
 
5 771
 
10.97
 
1.17
 
OECD 2
21 129
 
21 923
 
-0.52
 
0.21
 
5 160
 
5 881
 
1.45
 
1.00
 
4 139
 
4 972
 
0.97
 
1.41
 
BRICS
259 531
 
282 233
 
1.23
 
0.86
 
7 833
 
6 981
 
22.02
 
0.23
 
12 567
 
14 139
 
17.80
 
2.50
 
..
Not available
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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