1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027

The fourteenth joint edition of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish, as well as a special feature on the prospects and challenges of agriculture and fisheries in the Middle East and North Africa.

World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken. In the coming decade, real agricultural prices are expected to remain low as a result of reduced growth in global food and feed demand. Net exports will tend to increase from land abundant countries and regions, notably in the Americas. Countries with limited natural resources, slow production expansion and high population growth will see rising net imports. Increasing import dependence is projected in particular for the Middle East and North Africa, where a scarcity of arable land and water constrains agricultural production.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.16.2 - Rice projections: Consumption, food

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 - © OECD 2018

‌A.16.2Rice projections: Consumption, food
A.16.2Rice projections: Consumption, food
  Marketing year
‌‌
CONSUMPTION (kt)
Growth (%) 3
FOOD (kg/cap)
Growth (%) 3
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
Average
2015-17est
‌2027‌
‌2008-17‌
‌2018-27‌
WORLD
497 793
 
563 981
 
1.47
 
1.07
 
54.1
 
55.2
 
0.02
 
0.16
 
NORTH AMERICA
4 186
 
4 648
 
-0.21
 
0.76
 
11.7
 
12.0
 
-0.97
 
0.05
 
Canada
369
 
446
 
0.02
 
1.98
 
10.2
 
11.2
 
-0.99
 
1.15
 
United States
3 817
 
4 202
 
-0.24
 
0.64
 
11.8
 
12.1
 
-0.97
 
-0.06
 
LATIN AMERICA
19 403
 
21 659
 
0.58
 
1.18
 
28.5
 
28.8
 
-0.64
 
0.27
 
Argentina
534
 
618
 
4.54
 
1.69
 
10.3
 
11.5
 
3.74
 
1.01
 
Brazil
7 976
 
8 026
 
-0.34
 
0.52
 
38.4
 
36.1
 
-1.24
 
-0.08
 
Chile
233
 
249
 
2.14
 
0.83
 
12.5
 
12.3
 
1.03
 
0.16
 
Colombia
1 791
 
2 238
 
1.68
 
1.25
 
33.4
 
35.6
 
0.16
 
0.01
 
Mexico
828
 
1 101
 
-1.96
 
1.97
 
6.5
 
7.7
 
-3.34
 
0.90
 
Paraguay
133
 
136
 
16.63
 
0.75
 
7.2
 
6.8
 
3.18
 
-0.94
 
EUROPE
4 084
 
4 362
 
2.04
 
0.64
 
5.5
 
5.9
 
1.94
 
0.66
 
European Union
2 716
 
2 807
 
1.23
 
0.45
 
5.3
 
5.5
 
1.06
 
0.39
 
Russia
1 003
 
1 171
 
5.51
 
1.22
 
7.0
 
8.3
 
5.43
 
1.39
 
Ukraine
117
 
135
 
-3.40
 
1.09
 
2.6
 
3.1
 
-2.76
 
1.62
 
AFRICA
34 658
 
50 189
 
4.61
 
3.39
 
25.0
 
28.5
 
2.16
 
1.22
 
Egypt
4 034
 
4 891
 
1.32
 
1.76
 
38.2
 
38.6
 
-0.27
 
0.19
 
Ethiopia
392
 
662
 
21.50
 
4.50
 
3.6
 
4.8
 
19.35
 
2.34
 
Nigeria
5 660
 
8 350
 
4.18
 
3.41
 
26.5
 
30.6
 
1.33
 
1.19
 
South Africa
895
 
948
 
3.52
 
0.64
 
15.7
 
14.9
 
2.15
 
-0.38
 
ASIA
434 799
 
482 352
 
1.30
 
0.86
 
77.5
 
79.1
 
-0.06
 
0.15
 
China 1
142 413
 
149 651
 
1.42
 
0.26
 
77.1
 
77.6
 
0.07
 
0.06
 
India
98 051
 
115 742
 
1.20
 
1.47
 
68.6
 
72.8
 
-0.03
 
0.44
 
Indonesia
46 833
 
53 983
 
2.35
 
1.29
 
134.8
 
139.2
 
0.07
 
0.25
 
Iran
3 155
 
3 896
 
1.90
 
1.82
 
35.2
 
40.5
 
0.46
 
1.18
 
Japan
8 637
 
8 070
 
0.31
 
-0.64
 
54.0
 
51.1
 
-1.13
 
-0.49
 
Kazakhstan
236
 
301
 
3.12
 
1.84
 
11.7
 
13.6
 
1.39
 
1.00
 
Korea
4 704
 
4 112
 
-0.34
 
-0.94
 
62.5
 
55.3
 
-2.35
 
-1.12
 
Malaysia
2 700
 
3 236
 
0.77
 
1.51
 
81.0
 
85.1
 
-0.33
 
0.28
 
Pakistan
3 000
 
3 870
 
0.98
 
1.86
 
12.4
 
13.2
 
-0.87
 
0.22
 
Philippines
13 364
 
16 334
 
1.04
 
1.60
 
114.6
 
117.3
 
-0.24
 
0.15
 
Saudi Arabia
1 390
 
1 762
 
2.46
 
2.47
 
42.3
 
45.4
 
-0.21
 
1.04
 
Thailand
13 827
 
14 865
 
1.55
 
0.63
 
99.4
 
99.6
 
-0.10
 
0.03
 
Turkey
788
 
861
 
2.21
 
0.65
 
9.2
 
9.2
 
0.49
 
0.01
 
Viet Nam
21 991
 
24 326
 
1.34
 
0.94
 
154.6
 
157.6
 
-0.94
 
0.18
 
OCEANIA
663
 
771
 
2.36
 
1.04
 
16.7
 
16.9
 
0.79
 
-0.21
 
Australia
293
 
344
 
2.01
 
1.14
 
12.2
 
12.6
 
0.50
 
0.01
 
New Zealand
47
 
57
 
2.30
 
1.59
 
10.2
 
11.3
 
1.21
 
0.78
 
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
19 123
 
19 664
 
0.85
 
0.20
 
12.3
 
12.2
 
-0.17
 
-0.08
 
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
478 670
 
544 317
 
1.49
 
1.11
 
63.8
 
64.3
 
-0.12
 
0.05
 
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (LDC)
80 524
 
96 239
 
1.48
 
1.64
 
79.5
 
76.5
 
0.15
 
-0.36
 
OECD 2
22 722
 
22 590
 
0.22
 
-0.05
 
14.7
 
14.1
 
-1.16
 
-0.38
 
BRICS
250 338
 
275 537
 
1.30
 
0.76
 
66.6
 
68.6
 
0.01
 
0.24
 
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2015-17est: Data for 2017 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Refers to mainland only. The economies of Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong (China) and Macau (China) are included in the Asia aggregate.
2.
Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries.
3.
Least-squares growth rate (see glossary).
Source: OECD/FAO (2018), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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